$5.30 NLHE STT Turbo: SnG top 2 facing river shove. Sick board, good pot odds.

[Jacki Burkhart]

this is the 3rd hand of a super turbo SnG (blinds go up every 3 minutes).

starting stacks are 1500.

SB: 10 (1480 chips)
BB: 20 (1500 chips)
UTG: Folds
UTG+1 limps for 20 (1250 chips)
MP1: Folds
MP2: Folds
HJ: Folds
CO: Folds
Button: Hero has and raises to 88 (1500 chips)

SB calls
BB calls
UTG+1: calls

4 players to a flop. Pot contains 352

flop is

all 3 players check to me, I bet 200.

SB folds
BB folds
UTG+1 calls

Pot contains 752

turn is
UTG+1 checks
Hero bets 376
UTG+1 calls.

At this point, I'm putting him on a flush draw, a worse Ace, or possibly JT.

Pot contains 1504

river is
UTG+1 goes all in for 586.

Obviously any flush or any king beats me. I beat all other aces, all other 2 pair combos...a set seems very unlikely given all the action leading up to here.

I'm getting 3.5:1 on a call here. Can I profitably make this call in a SnG?

 

[WiZZiM]

Ya folding. When someone suddenly changes behaviour like that on an extremely bad board/card, i think we can give them credit here a lot of the time. i think your turn reads are good, however we can discount JT a little since they would likely play it faster since the board is quite bad (not discounting, weighting it less likely) and i think we can nearly discount worse aces since they are very unlikely to shove rivers like this.

So for me, theres very little you beat and a lot that gets there on the river, i fold here almost always. The odds can be really deceiving here, as we are playing our hand vs his range on the river, i doubt we have much equity here against his range if we looked at it closely so i'd just be ignoring the fact we're getting a good price to call.

WP if you folded i think.

 

[horizon12]

What hand you have Q? not understand...

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

What hand you have Q? not understand...

I had AQ for top 2 pair.

Yeah, I tank folded and felt kinda nitty about it. Then later, saw the same guy shove with pretty bad hands but I still don't think I'm beating much in his range...

 

[horizon12]

Call in river, pot already big what fold out two pairs,,, ( very good pot odds and no need more win hands what be profitable )


I would change a little bit here sizing bets, in flop when wet i bet not much vs 3 villain , 30% of the pot, 110 enough...
If in river 2 villain fold and one stay , i bet 40% of the pot .
And in turn if villain shove, we can find fold on this wet board....

Just on these flops, do not need much bet of what not to be tied with pot..

 

[WiZZiM]

Jacki- when someone shoves bad hands, it's actually a bit deceiving. I mean, good players shove wide right? so it's a read that confirms to me that we're beat here more often than not. Now if you had a read that he calls really wide, or showed up with something silly, then we can then include all two pair type hands, weird bluffs and Ax type hands in his range and call this river(even with those reads i don't think folding is bad, it's highly likely we're toast here).



Horizon- this is hand reading 101. When someone suddenly changes their actions from calling to suddenly jamming all in, you have to look at the board and wonder what he can call two streets with, then be happy about shoving rivers. For me it's quite obviously Kx or a flush, possibly some sort of two pair type hand, but it's very, very unlikely. Since we have no background reads, i can't assume he has any bluffs in his range although i guess it might be possible that he's just spazzing out here... however they are few and far between.

So against that range, since i think we can pretty much put a very low weight towards Ax two pair type hands, what can we beat? Pot odds or not this is a very easy fold imo.


I like the idea of betting smaller on the flop.. it's a pretty wet board with 4 players to it, so we kind of control the pot size with what is a relatively weak hand on the flop.

The other way you can go if you want to commit to the hand is to bet bigger not the flop, 300ish and then shove flops, pot will be around 900 on the turn and villain will only have 900 left. If he has something it's rare that they will fold, so we get max value from all his draws if we do this, but we also lose if they get there on the river, whereas the way hero played it we can save a few chips the times the worst card in the deck hits.


So yeah, three different wans to play the hand i can see, i prefer betting smaller on flop which in turn makes our bet on turn smaller, which makes our river decisions even easier. As played i think the only play is to fold and be happy we saved chips..

 

[horizon12]

Wizzim pot really already big what fold our two pairs, need call anyway,,

Some range hands villain what can limp in preflop like Ax AT AJ JT JQ , with this hand he can easy shove,,, i am sure what call in river will be very profitable,,,

Because Jacki sayd villain very lose player,,, But not so often there will be Kx or flush ...
It's just not logical game by villain , with this hands...

 

[WiZZiM]

yep well if you think villains play those hands that way then it makes it an easy call.

I think we just disagree on what range he jams in with here on that river card. agree to disagree on this one i think. But lets say he definitely does not have Ax and has very few to no two pair type hands in his range.. you still say call due to pot odds?

Oh and i don't see anything to lead me to believe that this player is "very loose" all she said was he shoved in bad hands later in the game, all that tells me is that they are more likely to be a good player. This is a ST SNG, shoving wide late is kinda a good game plan

 

[WiZZiM]

Definitely interested to hear other opinions though, i could be totally wrong here

 

[basse]

yep well if you think villains play those hands that way then it makes it an easy call.

I think we just disagree on what range he jams in with here on that river card. agree to disagree on this one i think. But lets say he definitely does not have Ax and has very few to no two pair type hands in his range.. you still say call due to pot odds?

Oh and i don't see anything to lead me to believe that this player is "very loose" all she said was he shoved in bad hands later in the game, all that tells me is that they are more likely to be a good player. This is a ST SNG, shoving wide late is kinda a good game plan

I think you could potentially have bet higher on the turn here. Villain is getting 3:1 pot odds for a call there, plus whatever implied odds villain thinks they have if they hit their flush/straight draw (about 3:1 if we put villain on Kx hearts).

 

[BigThingWithHolesInIt]

What hand you have Q? not understand...

Yeah, that's the Ad not showing. My PC does this as well, maybe it's a Chrome thing or something? As far as I've checked, when a card image doesn't load it's always the Ad.

@hand: as played a fold, best case scenario you're playing for a chop on this (awful) river.
Some might disagree but in a super turbo I like to play this hand a lot faster, especially in a multiway pot. If we bet (close to) pot on the flop, we can shove any blank turn and just check/fold to the bad cards.

 

[the lab man]

Prolly folding on the river,unfortunately...please realize Jackie picked up later in the game villain had wide range...
This hand was very early in stt ...note blinds....so no reads to this point...Only thing I may do different is bet pot on first hand...seems to weed out calling stations
agree these may have been a chop....but not going broke on first orbit