$40 NLHE: Live Game, T4000 starting, blinds 800/1600

[cardsDontMatter]

$40 NL HE: Live Game, T4000 starting, blinds 800/1600

11 players left out of 40, pays 8, 5 players at the table

15 minute blinds. Average: T14K

Hand first:
T18K Hero in the SB
T15K Villain: UTG opens for T4000, two-folds, action to Hero:
BB (solid player) has T25K
Pot = T6400

Long winded analysis:
Villain benefited (the most) from a spew-happy Moneymaker wanna be (MMWB) and controlled probably 1/3 of the chips in play with 20 players left... and Viliiain sat on them. hands shown during the spew play were not premium, for MMWB was playing garbage. Weak tight is my best shot at a read.

I couldn't really tell if Villain was just waiting out the final table or playing tight. I don't think stealing or restealing is in their repetoire. So, giving some credence to the raise seems prudent.

I also have 11bbs, Villain has less than 10bbs.

 

[Genso Hikki]

Okay, so I'm clear here, the villian has raised to 4000, you're next to act and have the BB to act after you?

The 4000 bet is only 2.5x the BB of 1600, so it's not that strong. He could be doing this with a medium pocket pair or even with 2 big cards. If you call, the BB is most likely going to be priced in with any two cards - for that reason, I'm not sure I like a flat call.

I guess my action here would come down to whether or not I thought I was a coin flip based on my read and whether I was playing to finish in the money or playing for the win.

 

[Dwilius]

Eh, the small raise could be to induce action but with short tables and 11bb I think I'm always jamming AQ. I guess the problem is if he is weaktight he's not calling with a worse hand near the bubble. Less than 10bb, why doesn't he openshove...that is kind of scary.

 

[viking999]

Tight or not, you're only 5 handed. If he's adjusted at all, he's going to think hands much weaker than AQ are monsters. I wouldn't necessarily read his 1/4 stack raise as super strong, either. Unless you know he's an experienced live tourney player, he may not have even realized what % of his stack he was betting. And also keep in mind that at 10BB or less, you're always getting enough odds to run AQ up against 22-JJ. You're near the bubble, but I don't think you're quite near enough so that shoving AQ here would be -$EV. Plus if he is in fact weak/tight, then he's likely going to fold several small pairs if you shove, which is very good for your hand.

EDIT: Oops, I misread the number of players left, so I deleted an obviously stupid statement.

 

[mecoble]

5 handed and having him covered id push all in most likely getting the big blind to fold most likely u have the best hand. i normally play for the win not for squeeking in the money