$4.50 NLHE MTT: $$4.50 NLHE MTT: Villains calling down flush draws against odds

[shades1875]

This is an example of something that happens to me too much - I'm at my wits end with it.
I can't see what I'm doing wrong, maybe a bigger re-raise on the flop but I'm sure that the odds i'm putting out are wrong for them to be calling me down.

I know I called on the river but by that time I feel I can't get away from the hand and that if my opponent has played correctly he can't have a flush.
This is one example but the amount of times this happens is unreal.
Any help would be greatly appreciated, thanks.

http://www.handconverter.com/hands/1762489
poker stars $4.10+$0.40 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 8 players - http://www.handconverter.com/hands/1762489
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

junichiro9 (UTG): t2850 95 BBs
promicin4400 (UTG+1): t1840 61.33 BBs
bartm3tt (MP1): t1310 43.67 BBs
Hero (MP2): t1405 46.83 BBs
K2K6 (CO): t2349 78.30 BBs
sr_logann (BTN): t2000 66.67 BBs
Un simplu (SB): t1640 54.67 BBs
4duces0909 (BB): t3477 115.90 BBs
Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is MP2 with Qc Ac
junichiro9 raises to t90, promicin4400 calls t90, 1 fold, Hero calls t90, 3 folds, 4duces0909 calls t60
Flop: (t375) 4d 7h Qh (4 players)
4duces0909 checks, junichiro9 bets t120, promicin4400 folds, Hero raises to t300, 4duces0909 folds, junichiro9 calls t180
Turn: (t975) 6c (2 players)
junichiro9 checks, Hero bets t487, junichiro9 calls t487
River: (t1949) Kh (2 players)
junichiro9 bets t1020, Hero calls t528 all in
Final Pot: t3005
junichiro9 shows Th Ah (a flush, Ace high)
Hero shows Qc Ac (a pair of Queens)
junichiro9 wins t3005

 

[tenbob]

A few things.

- Use a better hand convertor that one really sucks.
- Choose the option to "hide" your opponents usernames.
- Dont include results.
- Include any relative stats, or reads on your oppenents, "is is a tight table/ a loose one?".


As for the hand above, just shove the turn.

 

[shades1875]

Thanks for the reply - will use those options in future.
Was quite early in a 180 mtt, table was generally tight apart from my opponent and one other. the villain was a bit of a lunatic, but hey he walks away with my stack.
Will take your advice and shove the turn in future, I just usually try and avoid shoving that early in an mtt but that's probably my mistake. thanks.

 

[BlueNowhere]

Better bet sizing on the flop would've set you up for shipping the turn. My guess is you didn't bother thinking about what to do on the turn when you played the flop.

 

[shades1875]

Better bet sizing on the flop would've set you up for shipping the turn. My guess is you didn't bother thinking about what to do on the turn when you played the flop.

Well, I'm looking for him to fold on the flop that much is right. But I am aware of what I'm doing on the turn i he doesn't and that is to bet again if he calls my re-raise on the flop. It's a pretty standard play for me but as I said I'm open to advice and I'm trying to learn as I go......I've only been playing a short time.
I can't see why I want to set myself up to shove on the turn but in hindsight, given the advice from the previous poster and my stack size I probably should have.
So a bigger bet on the flop and the turn if it gets there?

 

[BlueNowhere]

I mean you didn't think about the turn in terms of bet sizing on the flop and what you would be left with and what to bet on the turn.
I think setting yourself up for a turn shove is going to carry better expectation than going for 3 streets of value.

 

[MediaBLITZ]

maybe a bigger re-raise on the flop but I'm sure that the odds i'm putting out are wrong for them to be calling me down.

I know I called on the river but by that time I feel I can't get away from the hand and that if my opponent has played correctly he can't have a flush.
This is one example but the amount of times this happens is unreal.
Any help would be greatly appreciated, thanks.


Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is MP2 with Qc Ac
junichiro9 raises to t90, promicin4400 calls t90, 1 fold, Hero calls t90, 3 folds, 4duces0909 calls t60
Flop: (t375) 4d 7h Qh (4 players)
4duces0909 checks, junichiro9 bets t120, promicin4400 folds, Hero raises to t300, 4duces0909 folds, junichiro9 calls t180
Turn: (t975) 6c (2 players)
junichiro9 checks, Hero bets t487, junichiro9 calls t487
River: (t1949) Kh (2 players)
junichiro9 bets t1020, Hero calls t528 all in
Final Pot: t3005
junichiro9 shows Th Ah (a flush, Ace high)
Hero shows Qc Ac (a pair of Queens)
junichiro9 wins t3005

Okay let's do some of that 4 the grade math (or is it 5th? - I suck at math)
At the flop, before any action, there is $375 in the pot.

Juni and his flush draw bets $120 to make $495 on the pot.

You re-raise to $300 (which is only $180 to Juni). So Juni is now looking at putting $180 into a pot that is now $795. He is getting GREAT pot odds on his flush draw (almost 4 1/2 to 1) that he would be wrong to turn down.

Now we have $975 in the pot and you bet $487 putting $1462 into the pot for him to consider - that's 3 to 1. There are a lot of guys who are going to go to the river for 3-1. I have on occasion done it myself. Technically it is a mistake and should be more like 4 to 5-1 to warrant a call with only one card to go - but sometimes it's a "what the hell?" call.


So the odds you gave on the flop just SCREAMED for a call.

The odds you gave going to the river was a borderline call for a lot of players - especially at this stake.

Basically your opponent played more correctly than you did and the flush was his for the taking.

 

[shades1875]

I mean you didn't think about the turn in terms of bet sizing on the flop and what you would be left with and what to bet on the turn.
I think setting yourself up for a turn shove is going to carry better expectation than going for 3 streets of value.

Thanks.
I'm not sure that I'm value betting though, I'm pretty happy if he folds on any street. I'm look at my bets as being enough to do the same job as a shove - i.e. that they are big enough that his draw is EV-? I also look at my bet on the flop and think I've given him enough information on the strength of my hand that he has to either fold there or if not on the turn definately. On the turn he's calling for a flush at 3-1.....that's just plain wrong surely?
Just to say that usually on that flop against no raisers I bet the pot. I used to bet 75% but that didn't seem to be enough.
Thanks for ur help, this is a situ that causes me no end of frustration and seems to happen too much.

 

[shades1875]

Okay let's do some of that 4 the grade math (or is it 5th? - I suck at math)
At the flop, before any action, there is $375 in the pot.

Juni and his flush draw bets $120 to make $495 on the pot.

You re-raise to $300 (which is only $180 to Juni). So Juni is now looking at putting $180 into a pot that is now $795. He is getting GREAT pot odds on his flush draw (almost 4 1/2 to 1) that he would be wrong to turn down.

Now we have $975 in the pot and you bet $487 putting $1462 into the pot for him to consider - that's 3 to 1. There are a lot of guys who are going to go to the river for 3-1. I have on occasion done it myself. Technically it is a mistake and should be more like 4 to 5-1 to warrant a call with only one card to go - but sometimes it's a "what the hell?" call.


So the odds you gave on the flop just SCREAMED for a call.

The odds you gave going to the river was a borderline call for a lot of players - especially at this stake.

Basically your opponent played more correctly than you did and the flush was his for the taking.

Thank you.
I take the point on the flop. I definately should have re-raised bigger.....that was a mistake.
What about the scenario where (and this is prob. closer to what I find most). - I'm first to bet on the flop and bet 75% - pot......I get called. I bet 50% on the flop.......I get called, flush card drops. What can I do better there?

 

[Worak]

As said shove turn.

What about the scenario where (and this is prob. closer to what I find most). - I'm first to bet on the flop and bet 75% - pot......I get called. I bet 50% on the flop.......I get called, flush card drops. What can I do better there?

If you have identified villain as a calling-station bet whatever you feel he will call... the more the better.

So if that's pot bet pot if it's overbetting the pot do it and if he calls a shove with TPGK or any draw shove.

Keep in mind that you want him to call though... you don't want to make him fold.

In the OP hand depending on utgs opening range (if you have a read) you could 3bet to 200 and raise his flop bet to 450 and shove turn imo.

 

[MediaBLITZ]

You need to understand what the odds are of him coming out of this with the best hand (from his POV). For sake of argument let's pretend he knows what he's doing and what his thought process might be.

Flop comes and he has a nut flush draw. GREAT - exactly what he was hoping for. You bet that flop. "Hmmm...Hero probably has a Q or maybe his own flush draw - which I crush. Well if he has a Q then my A might also beat him if one comes up. There are 3 out there but it might not beat him so I can't assign all three as outs. I'll call it two outs to add to my 9 heart outs. I have 11 outs. Oh wait - there's a back door straight there too. I'll call that an out - for now. That gives me 12 outs going to the turn. Right now that's 45% for me to win at show down - that's almost even money. This guy bet less than pot so I am definitely going to call. Hell he's giving me great odds - I have to call even if I didn't want to."

I think you are just miscalculating odds. You statement, "On the turn he's calling for a flush at 3-1.....that's just plain wrong surely?" is not correct. They are begging for 3-1 on a flush draw and are thrilled to see it. In fact 2-1 would be fine with 9 outs - And do not assume that there are only 9 outs for the guy. If he's any good he'll find hidden outs.


Now check this out - if I have a flush draw along with a gut shot straight draw then it is very proper for me to call a pot sized flop bet to see the next card. Now that drops dramatically at the turn if I don't hit but a lot of guys do not understand how much that hurt therm and should not call another pot sized bet - but they often will feeling committed.

A pot sized bet on the flop gives your opponent 2-1 odds - about the same odds of him hitting his flush draw after the flop.

Pot is 100 - you bet 100 making the pot 200. he only has to put in 100. 200 to 100 or 2-1.

 

[BlueNowhere]

In the OP hand depending on utgs opening range (if you have a read) you could 3bet to 200 and raise his flop bet to 450 and shove turn imo.

I considered saying raising to 220 or something pre but I thought about it I don't think it will be better than flatting here. If we were deeper I'd put it to 270 to iso weak UTG with position on him.

 

[BlueNowhere]

Thanks.
I'm not sure that I'm value betting though, I'm pretty happy if he folds on any street. I'm look at my bets as being enough to do the same job as a shove - i.e. that they are big enough that his draw is EV-? I also look at my bet on the flop and think I've given him enough information on the strength of my hand that he has to either fold there or if not on the turn definately. On the turn he's calling for a flush at 3-1.....that's just plain wrong surely?
Just to say that usually on that flop against no raisers I bet the pot. I used to bet 75% but that didn't seem to be enough.
Thanks for ur help, this is a situ that causes me no end of frustration and seems to happen too much.

You are v-betting, what better hand are you hoping folds out of interest? You've identified him as a lunatic so I'm not quite sure if you think he's laying down better than TPTK.

I think you need to look at why you are betting because your reasoning seems flawed in this hand.

 

[MediaBLITZ]

I considered saying raising to 220 or something pre but I thought about it I don't think it will be better than flatting here. If we were deeper I'd put it to 270 to iso weak UTG with position on him.

Yeah, in cash this is a raise but in tourney a flat is acceptable and even recommended by Dan Harrington (old fool - lol). Some will be pretty dogmatic about it being raised but what the hell - protect your stack.

 

[shades1875]

You need to understand what the odds are of him coming out of this with the best hand (from his POV). For sake of argument let's pretend he knows what he's doing and what his thought process might be.

Flop comes and he has a nut flush draw. GREAT - exactly what he was hoping for. You bet that flop. "Hmmm...Hero probably has a Q or maybe his own flush draw - which I crush. Well if he has a Q then my A might also beat him if one comes up. There are 3 out there but it might not beat him so I can't assign all three as outs. I'll call it two outs to add to my 9 heart outs. I have 11 outs. Oh wait - there's a back door straight there too. I'll call that an out - for now. That gives me 12 outs going to the turn. Right now that's 45% for me to win at show down - that's almost even money. This guy bet less than pot so I am definitely going to call. Hell he's giving me great odds - I have to call even if I didn't want to."

I think you are just miscalculating odds. You statement, "On the turn he's calling for a flush at 3-1.....that's just plain wrong surely?" is not correct. They are begging for 3-1 on a flush draw and are thrilled to see it. In fact 2-1 would be fine with 9 outs - And do not assume that there are only 9 outs for the guy. If he's any good he'll find hidden outs.


Now check this out - if I have a flush draw along with a gut shot straight draw then it is very proper for me to call a pot sized flop bet to see the next card. Now that drops dramatically at the turn if I don't hit but a lot of guys do not understand how much that hurt them and should not call another pot sized bet - but they often will feeling committed.

A pot sized bet on the flop gives your opponent 2-1 odds - about the same odds of him hitting his flush draw after the flop.

Pot is 100 - you bet 100 making the pot 200. he only has to put in 100. 200 to 100 or 2-1.

I'm lost. I've been under the impression that it's (about) 4-1 to hit a flush on either the turn or river (taking the odds in isolation - i.e. seeing one card at a time), or 2-1 to hit a flush after the flop (if it's guaranteed to see two cards). I always wonder how these odds can be guaranteed though when it's not always the case that they'll get to see two cards after the flop.

I'll be honest and say that I struggle with pot odds concepts and calculations - I use tournament indicator that does it for me! Implied odds......well that is beyond me, I'm trying hard to learn.

 

[shades1875]

You are v-betting, what better hand are you hoping folds out of interest? You've identified him as a lunatic so I'm not quite sure if you think he's laying down better than TPTK.

I think you need to look at why you are betting because your reasoning seems flawed in this hand.

I suppose just from some books n' stuff I've read (reading Harrington's first book right now and have read another one I forget the name of). I'm always looking to take the pot there and then because there is always the possibility of my opponents hand improving on the turn and river. Basically to avoid what happened here! I'm not trying to bluff him out of a better hand, I'm just trying to get him to fold the hand that he has (In this hand I had him on a nut, or close to, a nut draw). So is V-betting still good to me? The other possibility is of mid or bottom pair drawing a set and then I find it hard to get away from the hand. So I suppose a lot of it is to make my decisions easy.......at least for now

 

[MediaBLITZ]

I'm lost. I've been under the impression that it's (about) 4-1 to hit a flush on either the turn or river (taking the odds in isolation - i.e. seeing one card at a time), or 2-1 to hit a flush after the flop (if it's guaranteed to see two cards). I always wonder how these odds can be guaranteed though when it's not always the case that they'll get to see two cards after the flop.

I'll be honest and say that I struggle with pot odds concepts and calculations - I use tournament indicator that does it for me! Implied odds......well that is beyond me, I'm trying hard to learn.

I see what you are saying but he is going to assume he is going to the river - especially off of your flop bet. Most players combine the turn and river in their odds calculations (right or wrong). It is up to you to convince them otherwise by putting difficult decisions to them - like just over proper odds. Force them into a mistake. Like someone said earlier it's not like you really want him to fold. The odds are in your favor of your hand holding up - but you don't want to make it easy for him either.

You are correct - if we divide the streets and it is JUST a flush draw then it is 4.1 to 1. But many times it can be more than a just flush draw which means more than 9 outs.

For example if the flop is and I have then I not only have 9 outs for my flush but 2 more outs for trip aces. That's 3.2 to 1. 2 more outs shaved almost a complete point off my odds. That's a huge difference between calling and folding.

Now the turn brings - I can now add 3 more outs for the deuces in the deck that will give me the wheel (already counted the club in the flush draw). Going to the river I now have 14 outs which is pretty much a monster draw that some players are taught to never fold. But more precisely it is 2.2 to 1. So you go and give 3 to 1 pot odds then of course you are going to get called by a savvy player.

Now another thing to think about - at the stakes you are playing you are going to run into players that could give a rats ass about odds. All they know is they need one more card to get a nut flush and rake in what is becoming a juicy pot. They are are just going to damn the torpedoes and charge full speed ahead (pot odds be damned). And they hit it often enough (1 out 3) that they will keep doing it.

 

[Worak]

I suppose just from some books n' stuff I've read (reading Harrington's first book right now and have read another one I forget the name of). I'm always looking to take the pot there and then because there is always the possibility of my opponents hand improving on the turn and river. Basically to avoid what happened here! I'm not trying to bluff him out of a better hand, I'm just trying to get him to fold the hand that he has (In this hand I had him on a nut, or close to, a nut draw). So is V-betting still good to me? The other possibility is of mid or bottom pair drawing a set and then I find it hard to get away from the hand. So I suppose a lot of it is to make my decisions easy.......at least for now

You are playing against not only one set of combos (the Nutflush draws) if he's really a lunatic - (stats would be good here) - he will be playing a range of hands on flop, turn and river like this.

Say if he's really loose utg - will raising A10s be the bottom of his range ?

I doubt that but let's assume he's loose and agressive and a random lunatic he might be raising KJo+,Q10s+; 22+ preflop here (~20.5% pfr).

You will be a 60-40 favourite preflop against that range. (as said I 3bet against this guy to iso.)

On flop we hit TPTK and a BD straight-draw but there's that hearth flush-draw.

With what hands of his preflop range will he bet ~1/3 of the flop without 4betting your 3bet with that draw out?

Ahxh; Qx10x+ most probably imo since sets and overpairs he would most probably bet more / 4bet so I eliminated sets and overpairs.

Against that range you're ~ 70:30.

3bet more.

Turn a blank falls missing his range and he checks...

Now you're ~75:25 fav...

As said you don't wan't him to fold here but make the bad call of calling your shove.

 

[BlueNowhere]

I suppose just from some books n' stuff I've read (reading Harrington's first book right now and have read another one I forget the name of). I'm always looking to take the pot there and then because there is always the possibility of my opponents hand improving on the turn and river. Basically to avoid what happened here! I'm not trying to bluff him out of a better hand, I'm just trying to get him to fold the hand that he has (In this hand I had him on a nut, or close to, a nut draw). So is V-betting still good to me? The other possibility is of mid or bottom pair drawing a set and then I find it hard to get away from the hand. So I suppose a lot of it is to make my decisions easy.......at least for now

From this statement I would suggest you don't play $4.50/180's.

If you're betting to try and charge your opponent on improving then you are v-betting, same for draws.

Why are you hoping he folds a range that you're crushing? The reasoning that you've given so far is fundamentally flawed.

 

[MTTGOD57]

I would be folding that river. You have to learn to fold top pair top kicker in some certain situations and against certain players in Mtts. Your opponent calls 2 streets and finally wakes up and bets the river this screams strength an is anobvious completed draw against a calling station and is an easy fold. Had similar situation the other night playing live where folded top 2 pair on the turn from a massive raise from a calling station.Of course he showed and my read was correct.

 

[Pascal-lf]

raise to 400 flop, bet 550 turn or jam v a big calling station or overvalues draws