$3.25 NLHE Turbo: Odds to draw to overs

[pat3392]

$3.25 NL HE Turbo: Odds to draw to overs

poker stars $3.00+$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds

BTN: t2930 97.67 BBs
SB: t1510 50.33 BBs
Hero (BB): t1470 49 BBs
UTG: t800 26.67 BBs
UTG+1: t1330 44.33 BBs
MP1: t3145 104.83 BBs
MP2: t1720 57.33 BBs
CO: t1455 48.50 BBs

Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is BB with A:diamond: Q:spade:
3 folds, MP2 calls t30, 3 folds, Hero raises to t150, MP2 calls t120

Flop: (t315) J:spade: 4:club: 7:heart: (2 players)
Hero bets t210, MP2 raises to t420, Hero calls?

Do I have the odds here to draw to the over cards? If not, what odds would I need to do so?


EDIT: I should add this is a 45 person SnG

 

[WiZZiM]

5x is a little large preflop, we have position, a 4x raise will do the same as a 5x will. Then we can play a smaller pot, our c-bet will be smaller, and we save money once raised.

Calling here can never be great really. You have at most 6 outs, plus a few % extra for backdoor outs and whatever. And some of your outs are probably 'dirty' ones. We are getting a touch over 3:1 on a call here, and our implied odds arn't they great either. It's simply too much of our stack to be able to call here and see a turn.

 

[BigThingWithHolesInIt]

4.5:1 on your call, with six outs twice you make your hand 1 out of 4 times.
However, you're OOP, you have no read, established no image. At these stakes there are lots of people who make this play preflop with J-rag suited, so you may even be up against 2pr.
Either way you can't assume he's going to slow down when the turn bricks (except perhaps when a K comes), so your odds are likely not what they seem.

Especially with the blinds this low I just sigh and fold.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

In tournament situations, sometimes it pays to ignore what may be a justifiable odds-based call (although I'm not sure if this actually is justifiable) simply because it represents a large portion of your stack. This is one of those occasions.

So basically:

"Do I have odds?" - Maybe.
"Should I call?" - No.

 

[pat3392]

5x is a little large preflop, we have position, a 4x raise will do the same as a 5x will. Then we can play a smaller pot, our c-bet will be smaller, and we save money once raised.

Calling here can never be great really. You have at most 6 outs, plus a few % extra for backdoor outs and whatever. And some of your outs are probably 'dirty' ones. We are getting a touch over 3:1 on a call here, and our implied odds arn't they great either. It's simply too much of our stack to be able to call here and see a turn.

Not sure whether 4x is better; we save money when we're raised but lose money when the c-bet is successful. 4x is probably better though because 150 is 1/10 of our stack.