$.25 NLHE MTT: What are my odds to hit a gut shot here?

[tzuriel]

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

About 25 from the money in this MTT. I have a decent stack and the player in MP is fairly loose. Thought flatting from the button was okay here.

I called one smallish bet on the flop thinking I had the odds to call. Correct or not? Then on the turn he bets a little bigger and I didn't think I had the right odds. And figured there is a better spot coming.

How do I quickly calculate these odds in game?


NL Holdem $0.25+$0.02 (2800.00BB)
HERO ($177854)
UTG ($114345)
EP ($179432)
MP ($115417)
HJ ($323101)
CO ($22180)
BTN ($264597)
SB ($111166)

Dealt to Hero: 9♥ K♣

UTG Calls $2800, EP Folds, MP Raises To $5950, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Calls $5600, SB Folds, HERO Calls $2800, UTG Calls $2800

Hero SPR on Flop: [4.08 effective]
Flop ($26600): J♦ Q♥ 3♣
HERO Checks, UTG Bets $5250 (Rem. Stack: $103145), MP Folds, BTN Folds, HERO Calls $5250 (Rem. Stack: $166654)

Turn ($37100): J♦ Q♥ 3♣ Q♠
HERO Checks, UTG Bets $9275 (Rem. Stack: $93870), HERO Folds

Spoiler

UTG wins: $37100

 

[Sidetracked]

The odds of hitting a gut shot with 4 clean outs on the next card is about 11:1 against.

The huge problem here is that with your hand, if you do hit the Ten, you don't have the nut straight. AK does, and that is a very possible holding for the preflop raiser.

 

[Bnobob]

The Big Game

what it is to be a member of the CCB played well:deal:

 

[tzuriel]

what it is to be a member of the CCB played well:deal:

I don't get it. Huh?

 

[tzuriel]

The odds of hitting a gut shot with 4 clean outs on the next card is about 11:1 against.

The huge problem here is that with your hand, if you do hit the Ten, you don't have the nut straight. AK does, and that is a very possible holding for the preflop raiser.

True enough.

 

[jporter85]

fold it.. to late in the game to be chacing a gut shot

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Standard defend to a min-raise, even though we are going to be seeing a 4-way flop out of position.

Flop
The guy, who limp-called preflop, now comes out for a very small donk bet of 20% pot, and the two other guys fold. In my experience people usually do this, because they want to set their own price with some marginal made hand or a draw. Occationally they are doing it as a "trap", but in line with his preflop limp, I would put him on a range of QX with mostly a bad kicker, JX, 3X or a draw like KT or T9. Against that kind of range and for the price we have an easy call.

Turn
Now the Q pairs, and he makes another fairly small bet of 25% pot. If he has a Q, we are now only drawing to a straight. Him having a Q is less likely now though, and if he has a J, a 5 or a draw, the Q did not really change anything. Its kind of close, and I would probably have called for this price. My plan would then be to also call a small river bet, if I paired up, and if I make the straight, I am probably going to lead into him for a big bet.

That being said it is a pretty annoying spot, and I dont hate letting it go, as you did. The only thing, I will say, is, I dont think, you can see this as only drawing to a gutshot, because that is assuming, his entire range is QX. And a bad player like this will also show up here with all sorts of silly nonsense like A3, JT, T9, and you have more equity against those hands.

 

[300HPGOD]

What I am about to write can lead to a lot of trouble in these micro buy in tournaments but depending on what you think of the UTG player (main villain in this hand) I think you can consider check raising here the turn as a bluff. It is at least a little FPS but I rarely think villain has Qx here betting with these sizings. I dont think they are betting into many opponents on the flop with top pair at only 20% pot. Nor do I think they bet 25% on the turn when they nail trips. I would think they would play it faster. They limped in from UTG in this hand so I tend to put those players on pocket pairs like 55-88. Not sure that specific range would bet on this flop but who knows for sure. I think calling is also fine with possibly in leading the river as a bluff but I think check raising looks stronger which is what we want to convey here. This again depends on what we think of villain. If we are not thinking anything highly of them then they are way less likely to fold and therefore then we should either fold or call of implied odds. If we do think they are capable of folding though then I can see bluff raising as an option here.

I would take a call to my hypothetical check raise as at least a hand that is not going to fold the river so I would be checking the river on almost every card minus the 10.

 

[fundiver199]

What I am about to write can lead to a lot of trouble in these micro buy in tournaments but depending on what you think of the UTG player (main villain in this hand) I think you can consider check raising here the turn as a bluff.

Or even the flop for that matter. I was actually considering to suggest that, but I backed away, because I just dont know, how often a player like this is going to fold. And it would suck quite badly to check-raise the flop or turn, get called, give up on a brick river, and then he flip over a hand like KT or A3, which we lose to. But if we think, there is any chance, we can get him to lay his hand down, there are definitely merits to take a bad draw like this and play it with aggression. Especially when we are out of position.