$225 NLHE MTT: Facing a squeeze play and then a jam for less

[duggs]

I think open folding 99 is waaaay too nitty even on the bubble. And I think open jamming 99 has reverse implied odds.

But that's just me.

did you read my post?

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

I'm not trying to be overly critical, this was actually one of my leaks that I had to fix, but there's no continuity to your train of thought. You have all these different factors that affect your decision at certain spots only.

Example, you're worried about the bubble when facing the 3-bet, but you weren't worried about the bubble when you raised with a mid-pair in EP. I'm not worried about the bubble when facing a 3bet. I'm not sure where you got that from. I actually planned on 4bet jamming until the 3rd player came in. My only concern with the bubble has to do with open jamming 16bb (a workable stack when average is only 20bb). Which I feel has reverse implied odds. You're worried about what hands call you, AK and JJ+, but you've completely thrown your read on the guy out the window, and oddly enough, your decision and read on the guy was completely thrown off when a non-factor 2nd villain decided to call for all his chips. I'm worried that only premiums call me when I open jam 16bb...which has nothing to do with my read on the guy because I had no read on him at all until I raised and he 3bet me. But I think you're correct that my plan was derailed when the 3rd player jammed for less which really should have no affect on my decision how to play with the 3bettor.

If you're worried about the bubble, fold pre. Mid pair in EP puts you in a really tough spot when facing a 3-bet that could potentially force all your chips in. LP is a different story but in EP, just give it up. Whenever you have a short stack in EP, before you raise, ask yourself if you're comfortable getting all your chips in pre with the hand. If you're not, then let it go.

Now, I'm assuming you were quick to type this up so I'll see if I can get the facts straight. As played, I'll start where you're deciding on the 19k call:
Pot: $94,000

So you're getting 4.5:1 if you call, which means you just need somewhere around 22% equity to justify the call. Let's check out Pokerstove, I have villain I (All-in) as a tight nit, shoving with premiums and pairs. I have villain 2 with a wider range, capable of 3-betting with suited connectors:

Equity:
Hero - 38%
Villain I - 38%
Villain 2 - 25%

So now you're getting the right equity, GREAT, but wait, that means villain 2 is getting the right odds too, AND he doesn't even have to make a decision. So if you call, you're playing a mid pair, out of position, basically giving free equity to villain 2. Yea we can't do that, so jamming is the right move. You mentioned that villain 2 likes pot odds, GREAT, let's hope he calls with Ax, KQ, suited connectors, basically what I'm saying is if he calls your shove, considering his range, you're a 1.5:1 favorite and getting 1:1 on your money for the side pot, with the favorable equity shown above in the main pot.

But let's say you shove, and he folds, considering Villain I's range, you're basically looking at a coin flip but you're getting 4.5:1 on your money. I think this is the real pearl in your post. I should use my read to attempt to get the 3bettor to fold and instantly win the small side pot and take a coin flip with the short stack with great pot odds.

TL;DR - If you're worried about the bubble, don't open and fold pre-flop in EP. I wasn't considering opening and folding preflop. But depending on how the hand developed I might fold post flopAs played pre-flop, insta-shove. As played on the flop and turn, check folding is fine, you can't do much on that flop.

Thanks for your thoughtful reply! My comments in red above.

I'm not trying to be stubborn or argumentative; this was a weird spot for me and I want to fully understand WHERE the leak is....

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

did you read my post?

yes. I was replying to Ambur.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

13.1%, 22+ A9s+ AJo+ K9s+ KQo QTs+ JTs. this is a nash shoving range ignoring ICM, from UTG+2 16bb deep.
we can tighten it a bit because people will be calling too widely, ICM makes us somewhat risk averse. but lets say people only call with JJ+ AK so 6 people left to act and JJ+ AK which is 3% of hands, so we win the pot without showdown .97^6 =83% of the time. the other 17% of the time we get it in with 33.3% equity. so our EV is .83*13500+.17(.333*213500+-100000*.667)=11205+12086+-11339=11,952 or about 2bb+ when they call that tightly we can actually shove any pair with roughly the same profit and can. 2bb is also a huge edge when we have 16bb. I can't imagine anyway we get a higher EV than that

I'm no math wiz, but isn't your forecast of how often I get called off just a bit?

3% of hands are calling me, so if there were only 1 person left to act I would only get called 3% of the time, but with 6 people left to act I'm pretty sure the odds go up of 1 person holding a top 3% hand...right?

 

[Ambur]

.97^6 =83%

..0,97*0,97*0,97*0,97*0,97*0,97=0,83*100=83%

Which means 17% has chance someone has actually that 3% to make that call!

But against top3% we do not have equity 33,3%. We have 23,7%.

 

[duggs]

I'm no math wiz, but isn't your forecast of how often I get called off just a bit?

3% of hands are calling me, so if there were only 1 person left to act I would only get called 3% of the time, but with 6 people left to act I'm pretty sure the odds go up of 1 person holding a top 3% hand...right?

thats why i went 1-.03=97% the chance any given opponent folds, and multiplied it by it self 6 times, i.e. the odds of everyone folding

 

[duggs]

..0,97*0,97*0,97*0,97*0,97*0,97=0,83*100=83%

Which means 17% has chance someone has actually that 3% to make that call!

But against top3% we do not have equity 33,3%. We have 23,7%.

against AK JJ+? we have 33.3

 

[Ambur]

JJ+ AK so 6 people left to act and JJ+ AK which is 3% of hands

Against top 3% we do not have 33,3% equity!

Your range is 2,11% of the hands!

Used PkrCruncher to calculate it, which is slightly better then pokerstove!

 

[duggs]

Against top 3% we do not have 33,3% equity!

Your range is 2,11% of the hands!

Used PkrCruncher to calculate it, which is slightly better then pokerstove!

i am, you are forgetting to add the off suit combinations of AK, 2.11% is AKs JJ+. AKo,AKs,JJ+ is 3.02% or 40 of the 1326 combos. iv checked on two different equity calculators. i haven't made an error.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

thats why i went 1-.03=97% the chance any given opponent folds, and multiplied it by it self 6 times, i.e. the odds of everyone folding

duh. as you can see my hand analysis and general logic skills are rusty after my hiatus.

 

[Ambur]

well added range AKo,AKs, JJ, QQ, KK, AA and getting top 3,02%

and equity is 33,3% then

Now i understood where the mistake came in! Since AKo is not inside the top 3% :S

If i take automatic 3% I get hand range 99+ where KAo is not included!

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/tou...near-bubble-when-everyone-261066/#post2580967

I started this thread in the general tourney section because I feel there is a theme in the last several hands I posted that might be able to be answered in a general way in this thread.

 

[Poker Orifice]

I suppose I should just go with my initial plan and 4bet jam preflop.

I have history with the 3bettor and was about 70% confident that he was 3betting light to isolate me in position.

he assumes you're flatting a good % in a spot like this?

 

[ZekeRam]

I'm not worried about the bubble when facing a 3bet. I'm not sure where you got that from. I actually planned on 4bet jamming until the 3rd player came in. My only concern with the bubble has to do with open jamming 16bb (a workable stack when average is only 20bb). Which I feel has reverse implied odds. I'm worried that only premiums call me when I open jam 16bb...which has nothing to do with my read on the guy because I had no read on him at all until I raised and he 3bet me. But I think you're correct that my plan was derailed when the 3rd player jammed for less which really should have no affect on my decision how to play with the 3bettor.

My bad, old habits die hard. Every time "bubble" is mentioned I immediately associate it with tight play. You're right though, 16bb with 20bb average is a decent stack. Looks like the math says open shove with mid pairs EP but personally, I'd stray away from it. I think there's better spots to steal blinds than risking my tourney life that deep.

I wasn't considering opening and folding preflop. But depending on how the hand developed I might fold post flop

Oh, I meant fold pre. Once you open, you have to have a plan for resistance. You know how there's that one annoying guy on the table that takes an absurd amount of time before making a decision pre-flop, even if there's no action before him? Yea, that's me but I'm not doing it to annoy the table, I'm actually trying to think of how the hand plays out. If I had pocket 9s in your position, which seems like a nice strong hand, I'd sit there and think the following:

If I raise here, there's 6 other people behind me, with seat 7 being capable of 3-betting with air. I'll 4-bet jam if he does.

If I raise here, I can open shove a 3-bet against seats 4, 7 and 9, but re-evaluate if any others do so.

If I raise here, seat 3 is a calling station and may induce others to call behind for pot odds. Do I want to play a bloated pot with pocket 9s?

If I fold here, I've already stolen 2 blinds from the previous round, so the blinds coming up are practically free and I can wait for a better spot when I have position.

The leak that I fixed was actually factoring in multiple scenarios to keep me from being put in a tough spot. 16bb in EP with pocket 9s, I'd probably end up laying them down because I play optimally with more information, which I have none since I'm basically first to act.

It was tough to fix this at first, because I got excited when I received a good starting hand. The adrenaline would pump and my thoughts would be clouded, but once I was able to really calm down, I was able to make more optimal decisions. It's like reading someone else's hand analysis, it's almost as if the best decision is really easy but it's completely different when you're on the felt, having to make the decision yourself right then and there.

 

[A2345Razz]

I think open folding 99 is waaaay too nitty even on the bubble. And I think open jamming 99 has reverse implied odds.

But that's just me.

You don't know what reverse implied odds means...and it's a trivial shove unless you are on a big bubble or something...it sounds like you aren't even really on the bubble, so whatever.

Pile them in.....and there is no way in hell the LAG is folding JJ here; that was good for laugh though.

I don't mind you opening, but your damn close to point where I just ship.....like right on the edge if there are antes, etc. Also, why are we opening so big if we are folding to a 3b by a LAG here?

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

You don't know what reverse implied odds means...and it's a trivial shove unless you are on a big bubble or something...it sounds like you aren't even really on the bubble, so whatever.

Pile them in.....and there is no way in hell the LAG is folding JJ here; that was good for laugh though.

I don't mind you opening, but your damn close to point where I just ship.....like right on the edge if there are antes, etc. Also, why are we opening so big if we are folding to a 3b by a LAG here?

Simmer down there. I'm not sure what I did to deserve all the sarcasm; we're just talking about a poker hand here.

but feel free to set me straight how I'm wrong about reverse implied odds. I thought it meant that whenever I do get action I'm crushed. I realize many people use the term when they are talking about draws but I thought the term had wider application. If not, what is the correct term for what I'm talking about?

Also, I don't think I'm opening big and I'm definitely not considering folding against this guy preflop. 2.66bb was the table standard raise. My question was about whether I should flat or jam preflop. then once I elected to flat (probably the wrong move) how I should proceed post flop.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

he assumes you're flatting a good % in a spot like this?

Yes. He thinks I'm weak tight. I actively cultivate an image that is different from my true playing style. He thinks I'll fold or flat and he can take it away post flop in position.

He is looking to play pots with me because he thinks I'm the weak spot at the table. He looked down at a playable hand (or air) and decided to isolate against the girl. It happens to us girls a lot and those of us who are any good can spot it a mile away and are ready for it.

He doesn't want to flat and encourage one of the short stacks to jam. That was my thinking at the time, at the table anyways.

And this time I know my assessment of the situation was correct because he actually had A9o.

 

[loafes]

So Implied odds is when we know that we are implied to win more from our opponents when we make our hand on the basis that we will either be well disguised or get payed off because villain is a fish.

Reverse implied odds refers to instances where even when we make our hand we end up being dominated or beat anyway thus are implied to lose more money the times we improve our hand anyway.

 

[Himanshu]

Looks like you opt to take a stand in that hand before the cards were dealt. Now you are in a extremely complex situation were you can't fold so you did right by just calling Button shove but i really don't have any idea about you calling on that small bet as there is no info about other players on the table.