$225 NLHE MTT: Facing a squeeze play and then a jam for less

[Jacki Burkhart]

We're on the bubble on day 2 in a 2 day tourney. We just redrew for seats about 10 hands ago and so everyone is "new" at the table but I'd estimate most players think I'm tight. I've folded all 10 hands at this table.



Blinds are 3000/6000/500 and I have about 100,000.



2 folds and I raise to 16,000 with



A good, tough LAG is 2 to my left and has a stack of about 200,000 and he 3bets me to 35,000. I get the feeling he is full of shit. Although I am in early position and he's in mid position so he COULD have a hand...but I decide I'm running out of time and options and it will behoove me to play back at this LAG and get him to pick a softer target! I decide I will 4bet shove on him. He will of course call with AK and QQ+ but I think he will fold all his bluffs and all his weak to mid aces and TT and possibly he will even fold JJ and AQ. Seems like, all in all it will be a profitable shove.



BUT...then wild card Button is a good player just sitting on his short stack. He goes all in for less. He has 29,500. It folds back to me and now I'm in a tough spot. It seems like folding is out of the question since the pot now has 94,000 in it and it only costs me 11,000 to call so I'm getting almost 9:1 on my money so I've got direct pot odds to draw at a set nevermind the implied odds from the LAG who can fully double me up. And now it seems that shoving is too risky because this LAG is a big fan of pot odds so now he'll call with all his monsters plus a few more hands he would have folded before due to the juicy pot odds. Also, I can't win without a showdown due to the short stack's presence in the pot and the short stack either has me crushed or has 2 overs. So I flat, but now I'm essentially set mining for 1/3 of my stack!



Flop comes . Pot contains 105,000. 11,000 of which is a side pot between me and the CO.



YUCK.



I check and the CO checks. I plan to jam if an undercard or a T comes on the turn.



Turn is the

DOUBLE YUCK. I check and the CO bets 4,000 into the side pot. It hurts to fold a 109,000 pot for just 4,000 but I figure I'm in 3rd place. So I fold.

Questions: Should I flat or jam preflop? Should I jam on this flop? Should I call the tiny turn bet?

 

[Ambur]

You call when you should fold (you are pot commited when u call, plus giving huge odds for button)! Well one opportunity is in mind to 4bet jam preflop, but it does not make sense to me since your image is tight as you said! imo

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

you think I should fold when there is 94,000 in the pot and it costs me 11,000 to call and I get to close the action? (Meaning I'm assured to see a flop).

the pot odds are 8.5:1 meaning I only need winning odds of 10% to make this a break even call and even if both players have overpairs I still 18% winning equity.

 

[Ambur]

Well i misunderstood a little bit, since my english skills arent so good!

As i see you opened pot EP and got 3bet jam from MP and BTN called (BTN are AI), now the decision is back to you right?

Well if that so you can call it, but you have to fold any agression if you do not hit your set!

 

[Ambur]

But for me calling preflop is not option even if i get huge odds to do so and cant really 4bet jam eather because of my image! I really do not belive LAG player would make commitive bet for EP opener with garbage, since he knows btn is short stack! Most likely we are chasing set to beat his range! imo

But really do not take it as good advise since i am not player level as you are, just think about it and give feedback!

 

[WiZZiM]

I'm tempted to just jam this in preflop, if this is a full 9 handed table there is an extra 4500 in the pot, meaning the blind level is essentially 4k/8k and we have just over 12BBs. So i'm fine with jamming it in pre considering how much action we are likely to get from a small raise and how much is in the pot and what our hand type is like to play postflop.

As played, the buttons range is strong and we're never seing a good flop postflop. I don't really think the MP is full of shit here that often but if that is your table read then i would simply jam it in preflop rather than calling. Calling leaves us in no mans land and we're not really profitable if we're 'setmining'. There are a few flops where we can get it in, and we are first to act, so if we call/decide to jam flops it makes calling better. But if we actually setmine we can't really profit/expect to get to showdown since we have three streets left vs an aggro opponant.

So again, i think it's a decision preflop, as played i likely fold here as bad as it seems since we still have a player left to act (who i assume can jam if we just call here??) But with so much in the pot i think jamming is the better of two bad options we leave ourselves with after we open and the small stack jams.

fwiw i think i jam this in preflop every time.

 

[HooDooKoo]

I don't understand this play at all. The button's 5BB shove is irrelevant. Your read is the LAG is full of shit, so you shove preflop and hope for a fold. What's the point of making live reads if you aren't going to take advantage of them?

-HooDooKoo

 

[loafes]

Hate flatting pre, even if you technically have the odds to set mine. Jam or fold pre. I actually think I just jam here but don't hate a fold.

 

[Poker Orifice]

II don't really think the MP is full of shit here that often but if that is your table read then i would simply jam it in preflop rather than calling.

This is ^ what I was thinking
I would've thought that if MP is a 'good' player, why would they assume you'd be r/f on a 16bb stack from EP when you figure they see you as being a Tight player? (what part of your range would you be r/f in this spot? What part of your range do you figure they think you'd be r/f in this spot (vs. what you'd be r/gii or call it off with)

 

[thatgreekdude]

Fold nines pre, save yourself the hassle nah i'd probably jam like others have said, if you think MP is weak then get it in, though I can't see him 3b'ing light if he's under the impression you're tight unless he's a bully but just go with your gut.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

I do close the action with my flat preflop. There are no players left to act. I think folding preflop is an absurd idea.

Are you all I agreement that the best play here is to open jam 99 in early position near the bubble with 16bb and a little below an average stack? That doesn't seem like a good line to me. What hands call me? AK and JJ+ most likely.

Anyways my read was right. The 3bettor was full of shit preflop, I got to se the hands play out.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

I suppose I should just go with my initial plan and 4bet jam preflop.

I have history with the 3bettor and was about 70% confident that he was 3betting light to isolate me in position.

 

[thatgreekdude]

I think folding preflop is an absurd idea.

Sorry, I was kind of joking.

 

[loafes]

When I say jam and I assume it's the same for the others I'm actually referring to 4b jamming, not open jamming.

The same ting with the fold, more talking about folding to the 3b/f than the open folding which really would be absurd.

 

[horizon12]

After 3bet, easy shove preflop and need hopping on coinflip,, Because if you only call here, you will be without position, linked already with pot with your stack size you must shove on any board, because if will be overcards in flop, played passive it very bad game, after your check, villain only can bet around 30% of the pot, and will be difficult decision what doing next as in your situation...

Two main factors for 4bet shove you not have position and very small stack...

 

[Ambur]

I do close the action with my flat preflop.
Are you all I agreement that the best play here is to open jam 99 in early position near the bubble with 16bb and a little below an average stack?

I really did not notice its in bubble!

What do you think about foldin preflop 99 EP 16bb stack (what are the stack sizes compared others, do not know and the structure, it is bubble game)?

Well you had that read but your stack is only little below average! As played 4bet jam then if situation like this occure! Is the best choice of given information, since you do not like idea folding 3bet or just stop playing mediocre pairs EP in a bubble game! imo

Well one opportunity is to flat 3bet and jam whatever the board comes! - but i do not like this idea when you are holding half-hard pair!

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

Sorry, I was kind of joking.

I knew you were kidding because you used a smiley face. But like 3 other people actually suggested I should fold preflop. In my mind the only decision was between flatting and jamming preflop. I'm never ever folding here.

 

[duggs]

Jamming initially usually here, can be convinced raising is ok too, as played I'm just ripping regardless. don't expect villain to ever 3b/f JJ/TT pre v 16ish bb. that would be horrendous.

 

[ZekeRam]

Are you all I agreement that the best play here is to open jam 99 in early position near the bubble with 16bb and a little below an average stack? That doesn't seem like a good line to me. What hands call me? AK and JJ+ most likely.

I'm not trying to be overly critical, this was actually one of my leaks that I had to fix, but there's no continuity to your train of thought. You have all these different factors that affect your decision at certain spots only.

Example, you're worried about the bubble when facing the 3-bet, but you weren't worried about the bubble when you raised with a mid-pair in EP. You're worried about what hands call you, AK and JJ+, but you've completely thrown your read on the guy out the window, and oddly enough, your decision and read on the guy was completely thrown off when a non-factor 2nd villain decided to call for all his chips.

If you're worried about the bubble, fold pre. Mid pair in EP puts you in a really tough spot when facing a 3-bet that could potentially force all your chips in. LP is a different story but in EP, just give it up. Whenever you have a short stack in EP, before you raise, ask yourself if you're comfortable getting all your chips in pre with the hand. If you're not, then let it go.

Now, I'm assuming you were quick to type this up so I'll see if I can get the facts straight. As played, I'll start where you're deciding on the 19k call:

Pot: $94,000

So you're getting 4.5:1 if you call, which means you just need somewhere around 22% equity to justify the call. Let's check out Pokerstove, I have villain I (All-in) as a tight nit, shoving with premiums and pairs. I have villain 2 with a wider range, capable of 3-betting with suited connectors:

Equity:
Hero - 38%
Villain I - 38%
Villain 2 - 25%

So now you're getting the right equity, GREAT, but wait, that means villain 2 is getting the right odds too, AND he doesn't even have to make a decision. So if you call, you're playing a mid pair, out of position, basically giving free equity to villain 2. Yea we can't do that, so jamming is the right move. You mentioned that villain 2 likes pot odds, GREAT, let's hope he calls with Ax, KQ, suited connectors, basically what I'm saying is if he calls your shove, considering his range, you're a 1.5:1 favorite and getting 1:1 on your money for the side pot, with the favorable equity shown above in the main pot.

But let's say you shove, and he folds, considering Villain I's range, you're basically looking at a coin flip but you're getting 4.5:1 on your money.

TL;DR - If you're worried about the bubble, don't open and fold pre-flop in EP. As played pre-flop, insta-shove. As played on the flop and turn, check folding is fine, you can't do much on that flop.

 

[duggs]

13.1%, 22+ A9s+ AJo+ K9s+ KQo QTs+ JTs. this is a nash shoving range ignoring ICM, from UTG+2 16bb deep.
we can tighten it a bit because people will be calling too widely, ICM makes us somewhat risk averse. but lets say people only call with JJ+ AK so 6 people left to act and JJ+ AK which is 3% of hands, so we win the pot without showdown .97^6 =83% of the time. the other 17% of the time we get it in with 33.3% equity. so our EV is .83*13500+.17(.333*213500+-100000*.667)=11205+12086+-11339=11,952 or about 2bb+ when they call that tightly we can actually shove any pair with roughly the same profit and can. 2bb is also a huge edge when we have 16bb. I can't imagine anyway we get a higher EV than that

 

[duggs]

When I say jam and I assume it's the same for the others I'm actually referring to 4b jamming, not open jamming.

The same ting with the fold, more talking about folding to the 3b/f than the open folding which really would be absurd.

I'm talking about open jamming.

 

[loafes]

I'm talking about open jamming.

While open jamming is good to and shows profit without any tough decisions or chances to make a mistake. But 16bb is about the first amount I'm starting to open jam over raise some of my hands and 99s is the bottom of my range for opening over jamming. So if I had 88s here I'd jam. 99 I can be convinced either way.

 

[el_magiciann]

I like your play very much, i would play the same myself.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

I really did not notice its in bubble!

What do you think about foldin preflop 99 EP 16bb stack (what are the stack sizes compared others, do not know and the structure, it is bubble game)?

I think open folding 99 is waaaay too nitty even on the bubble. And I think open jamming 99 has reverse implied odds.

But that's just me.

 

[Ambur]

I think open folding 99 is waaaay too nitty even on the bubble. And I think open jamming 99 has reverse implied odds.

But that's just me.

I mean just folding preflop, not open folding!