$215 NLHE: warmup Big Blind hand v river shove

[Irexes]

$215 NL HE: warmup Big Blind hand v river shove

Same opponent as other thread. This is 2 hours in.

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/tournament-hand-analysis-51/215-nl-he-warm-up-awkward-149120/

He is very aggro and 3 hands earlier check raised all in with KK and got a call from an underpair to double up.

poker stars, $215 Buy-in (250/500 blinds, 25 ante) NL Hold'em Tourney, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker
UTG: 9,925 (19.9 bb)
UTG+1: 12,725 (25.5 bb)
MP1: 43,152 (86.3 bb)
MP2: 13,166 (26.3 bb)
BTN: 15,437 (30.9 bb)
SB: 14,185 (28.4 bb)
Hero (BB): 15,850 (31.7 bb)
MP3: 35,788 (71.6 bb)
CO: 18,370 (36.7 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with K

8

4 folds, MP1 raises to 1,000, 2 folds, SB calls 750, Hero calls 500
Flop: (3,225) 2

3

K

(3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks
Turn: (3,225) Q

(3 players)
SB bets 1,000, Hero calls 1,000, MP1 calls 1,000
River: (6,225) 2

(3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP1 bets 41,127 and is all-in, SB folds, Hero ???

 

[Jillychemung]

Only thing that I can think of that you are beating is a missed FD QhJh, Ah{3h,4h,5h}.

What kinds of hands has he been min-raising on unopend pots? ATC, suited Aces, high connectors, any connectors?

 

[Irexes]

Haven't really got a sense of his range here other than he's 30% attempt to steal, though he's not been to showdown enough to say what that means.

 

[Melkor]

You mention at the top of the post that villain is really aggro. Given that, if they had a missed flush draw on the river I would expect them to have bet that draw on the flop when checked to, especially when they are the preflop aggressor. Have you seen them make any many c-bets in the past? All the middle pairs I would expect to bet as well.

The turn flat villain could be doing with quite a wide range looking at the odds given. That includes a two but there is very few deuces that would have raised preflop. Possible flush draws are still there. Just flatting the turn would be a dangerous way to play a flopped set given the flush draw and two callers.

By the river, his overshove makes it hard to believe he has something like a Q but it is possible a 3 does this to try and force a Q or weakish K out but that is a huge risk with some showdown value. Plus, what 3 raises preflop and doesn't c-bet the flop? It seems to be narrowing down what he has to a missed flush draw or a monster he has been slowplaying all along or a very brave 3 going for a small pot or total air. I just dont see an aggro player playing a flush draw so passively though and would total air call the turn?

In the KK hand, the check-raise would suggest they check-raised the flop. That would at least lead us to believe that villain is willing to take a chance with big hands and maybe overdoes the slowplays a little bit. A player like that could play a flopped set or even a weird two pair like this ignoring the flush draw. By the river, having slowplayed and got no action I can see villain thinking that they need to get value and overshoving to make it look bizzare.

I just dont like calling off with a weakish top pair for our tournament when we are very much still alive and I can't see a load of things we beat that play it this way and villain may be trappy. I would probably fold.

 

[zachvac]

I snap-fold here. Without really strong reads I've found that generally shoves mean strength especially on the river. Sure it could be a random draw but because of the odds you're getting (shove is an over-bet), you need to be pretty sure that this is a bluff a lot of the time, because you beat exactly 0 value hands.

 

[bolda3]

Im totally lost in this one. I quickly fold though. He could have Kx to make a better 2 pair or boat. Possibly small pp to boat or quad it up. Can't call this off with that bet.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

You're pretty clearly only beating a bluff but I do think the action suggests he's bluffing quite often here. That said, given that it's for our stack and we don't have much invested already and the pot is only 6k prior to the river shove, this seems a pretty clear fold as I don't think he's bluffing quite often enough.

 

[Irexes]

Am reading this and thanks

Will reply once responses dry up.

 

[kcirjr]

I think your problem was after everyone played it carefully on the flop you needed to find out where you were at on the turn. That one guy bet a thousand, weak bet he prolly thought he could buy it. YOu needed to reraise that and see where you were at. I put the other guy that went all in with a k also but I think he has better kicker. He thinks since board paired his hand is good with prolly ak which is true.

 

[EvilEmperor]

Please be folding K8o oop even for a min bet. Even against aggro players raise.

Interesting that very aggro player doesnt cbet K high flop when checked to. If villain wasnt min raising as standard then I'd be expecting to see him show KK here. If villain was min raising all the time I'd probably still fold here but it would be close. Good chance villain could be bluffing or at least a split pot. Leaning towards fold though because villain had to worry about getting looked up with sb bet on turn and your call. He has decent stack so I dont see him wanting to lose chunk of it on bluff here.