Ronaldadio
Legend
Silver Level
I joined this one late, so I have not had the chance to read all the response.
67% ?
The way I see it, u only have your nut flush draw - the rest could be duplicated, everyone else alread have - straight, flopped flush, better ace, set, 2 pair, etc.
I guess u can only really count your nut flush. So u only have 9 outs = 20% x 2 cards to come = 40%.
I agree the rest `could` be outs, but the way the betting is going, probably not.
Having said all this and without looking in depth, I would have called/ pushed
67% ?
The way I see it, u only have your nut flush draw - the rest could be duplicated, everyone else alread have - straight, flopped flush, better ace, set, 2 pair, etc.
I guess u can only really count your nut flush. So u only have 9 outs = 20% x 2 cards to come = 40%.
I agree the rest `could` be outs, but the way the betting is going, probably not.
Having said all this and without looking in depth, I would have called/ pushed
TheseNutsWin
Rock Star
Silver Level
I joined this one late, so I have not had the chance to read all the response.
67% ?
The way I see it, u only have your nut flush draw - the rest could be duplicated, everyone else alread have - straight, flopped flush, better ace, set, 2 pair, etc.
I guess u can only really count your nut flush. So u only have 9 outs = 20% x 2 cards to come = 40%.
I agree the rest `could` be outs, but the way the betting is going, probably not.
Having said all this and without looking in depth, I would have called/ pushed
Yes 21 outs is pushing it, but I think i at least have 15 outs which is 50/50. If he has an overpair then i get additional 3 Aces which is 18 outs now my odds are even better. 10's maybe if they come runner runner or the flop and river comes AT giving me 2 pair.. The worst situation for me would be if he holds QhTh, then i dont have any outs... but if i think like that then i`ll never get involved in any pots.. probabilities that my opponent already has a straight flush or a made flush (which i can still win 7 outs left) are low so why not take a chance? In reality my range is from 0 outs to 21. If opponent has a made straigh flush then 0 if my opponent is bluffing or his got AK maybe he can fold to an all in bet especially that i had him covered... I believe i made a right move but i really wanted to hear an oppinion from more experienced players then me...
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crazyfool
Enthusiast
Silver Level
The way i see it is the best hand at this point is the hand most likely to win, so you had the best hand. Simulator shows you are 62% to win so all I can say is better luck next time. Hell you are even slightly ahead of AA 55/45 or so. Only thing is I wouldn't have figured 21 outs. 18 max
Benjammn
Enthusiast
Silver Level
3 7's + 3 Q's + 6 Hearts (2-6,K) =/= 21 outs
You only had 12 outs for the nuts. That's 3-to-1 odds or so. Your pot odds were like .5-to-1. I see no reason to call/shove. You only hit flushes 1-in-4, so your move was pretty much a gamble and you paid for it. Luck is never on your side in poker: don't rely on it to win. That's not the same as using luck to your advantage, though (i.e. set mining).
You only had 12 outs for the nuts. That's 3-to-1 odds or so. Your pot odds were like .5-to-1. I see no reason to call/shove. You only hit flushes 1-in-4, so your move was pretty much a gamble and you paid for it. Luck is never on your side in poker: don't rely on it to win. That's not the same as using luck to your advantage, though (i.e. set mining).
TheseNutsWin
Rock Star
Silver Level
so according to you normal deck does not have 7h and Qh? (2-6, K) = 7 not 6.. you missing few cards
did you also noticed i can get a straight and an A can win here? And I Paid for it?? you cant be serious here...
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Benjammn
Enthusiast
Silver Level
/smacks headso according to you normal deck does not have 7h and Qh? (2-6, K) = 7 not 6.. you missing few cards
4 7's, 4 Q's, 6 Hearts (2-6, K). That's still moot though. 14 outs isn't much more than 12. And sorry if I was being blunt, but being 2-to-1 to actually win in the actual hand (talking omnisciently, not from your POV) is still gambling, especially since the pot wasn't giving you the odds.
TheseNutsWin
Rock Star
Silver Level
once again
i think you must be tired or something( just like when i posted this thread writing 20 outs).. but straight and flush is 15 outs alone.. then 3 outs for A's (which i wasnt sure if can win me this hand but as it comes out A's were my outs also.. so 15+3 = 18, then we also have 3 more 10's in the deck ( i wasnt really counting them in because i figured if he has overpair then 10s are no good unless runner runner but if he is making a move with AK with Khs or something or totaly bluffing then my 10s are also normall outs so thats +3 adding all up its 21.. Yeah but thats kind of pushing it. so my range is from 0 to 21.. I decided to take a chance because i figured in case hes got an overpair like Q's i got 18 outs meaning i`m actually a favorite here on the flop. If he's got a made flush he wouldnt raise me 10k he would probably check raise me.. although people play it in many ways... And also i figured maybe all in will make him fold and if not i got plenty of cards that can make it happen...
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JoeDi
Enthusiast
Silver Level
I think there its better to call an all in rather than push.. No reason to commit so many chips on a draw..If he over bet like that he isnt going to fold.. you would have saved 25k chips for the turn and seen you didnt hit and be able to reevaluate you situation.. Maybe he checks in fear of the flush on the turn and you see the river for free.. Then you realize you didnt hit and can get away from it..
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ph_il
...
Silver Level
Do you not see that the 7h, 10h, and Qh can possibly give you 2nd best hand if it hits since they complete a straight flush and shouldn't be counted towards your total number of outs?
We can clearly see afterwards that you had those 3 extra hearts as outs, but prior to that you should notice which 'outs' might actually hurt your hand instead of helping you.
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baudib1
Legend
Silver Level
Anyone who doesn't call here is suffering serious leakage. We're a favorite over anything, AA, a set, anything but a made flush and there is only one flush in his likely range (KhQh). We're a huge favorite to get half the chips in play; it's highly unlikely we'll ever find a better spot in this tourney.
This would be like seeing an opponent shove all-in preflop, show AQs, and folding QQ.
This would be like seeing an opponent shove all-in preflop, show AQs, and folding QQ.
shinedown.45
Legend
Silver Level
My math is horrible, I'm missing a few outs here.
This is my calculation: 9 hearts, 2 aces, 2 tens, 3 queens and 3 sevens (9+2+2+3+3=19) and not all these outs are clean.
If this is wrong, what am I missing here?
slycbnew
Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
If we're looking at whether Hero should call the all-in, since Villain's hand wasn't known, I think it's interesting to evalute the ranges of hands we're putting Villain on based on actions to that point.
Running the actual hand through pokerstove, Hero is a 62% favorite over Villain.
As an example, let's say we interpret min-raise preflop and overbet on the flop to mean that Villain's range is 88+,KhQh,QhTh,QTo, 7h6h,76o, then Hero is a 52% favorite to win the hand.
Second example, let's say we interpret the sequence to mean that Villain's range is 88+, Hero is a 51% favorite to win the hand.
Third example would be QQ+, Hero is a 57% favorite to win the hand.
The last examples would be the three sets, where Hero is 41% to win, and the flush and straight, Hero is 25% and 40% to win respectively.
To most responders' point, Hero is a favorite in every situation other than the sets, the flush, and the straight. Combining all situations, Hero is still a favorite at 52%. You may be able to narrow Villain's range based on his actions. To me, the overbet says either PP or a set, and says he doesn't have the flush or the straight - 88's and up - but now Hero is only a 51% favorite. The range is certainly debatable - and if you put him specifically on QQ's and up, Hero's a 57% favorite.
Being a 51% favorite (based on my range for Villain) is better than break even, and, as many in this thread have indicated, you don't win tournaments without taking risks. That position makes sense to me and I agree with it. I'm still not crazy about this specific spot to take a risk, though - shorthanded or not - but I don't disagree that this is a reasonable place to take that shot (but I don't think there's any FE here, I think Villain's pot committed already).
I don't think, though, it's quite as nitty a fold as a lot of people seem to think it is.
Running the actual hand through pokerstove, Hero is a 62% favorite over Villain.
As an example, let's say we interpret min-raise preflop and overbet on the flop to mean that Villain's range is 88+,KhQh,QhTh,QTo, 7h6h,76o, then Hero is a 52% favorite to win the hand.
Second example, let's say we interpret the sequence to mean that Villain's range is 88+, Hero is a 51% favorite to win the hand.
Third example would be QQ+, Hero is a 57% favorite to win the hand.
The last examples would be the three sets, where Hero is 41% to win, and the flush and straight, Hero is 25% and 40% to win respectively.
To most responders' point, Hero is a favorite in every situation other than the sets, the flush, and the straight. Combining all situations, Hero is still a favorite at 52%. You may be able to narrow Villain's range based on his actions. To me, the overbet says either PP or a set, and says he doesn't have the flush or the straight - 88's and up - but now Hero is only a 51% favorite. The range is certainly debatable - and if you put him specifically on QQ's and up, Hero's a 57% favorite.
Being a 51% favorite (based on my range for Villain) is better than break even, and, as many in this thread have indicated, you don't win tournaments without taking risks. That position makes sense to me and I agree with it. I'm still not crazy about this specific spot to take a risk, though - shorthanded or not - but I don't disagree that this is a reasonable place to take that shot (but I don't think there's any FE here, I think Villain's pot committed already).
I don't think, though, it's quite as nitty a fold as a lot of people seem to think it is.
Ronaldadio
Legend
Silver Level
I think the confusion is being caused by the fact 2 questions are being asked.
1) The action itself (fold, call, push)
2) The number of outs.
For me, it is a push - I am getting blind to the hh, but pushing means a least the other guy has to think - I would rather push all in than call an all in. So, forgetting everything else, I would have pushed or called an all in, I would not have folded.
The number of live outs is the confusing one.
1) The action itself (fold, call, push)
2) The number of outs.
For me, it is a push - I am getting blind to the hh, but pushing means a least the other guy has to think - I would rather push all in than call an all in. So, forgetting everything else, I would have pushed or called an all in, I would not have folded.
The number of live outs is the confusing one.
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switch0723
Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
people who can't work out our outs here need to practice a bit on how to calculate. Since a flsuhdraw + straight draw is 15 outs, thats just something you should know of the top of your head. We also have 3 aces as outs here giving us 18, but any spot where you have 15 outs should be insta shove
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ph_il
...
Silver Level
But do we count the outs that could actually hurt us if it hits?
On a board of 9h, 8h, Jh...how much confidence will you have in an Ah flush if a 7h, 10h, Qh hits? Maybe not so much heads up than in a multiway pot, but villain can easily be holding QhQx, 10h10x, 10hJx, or QhAx. So, do we count these as solid outs on such a connecting flush board?
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switch0723
Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
if villain is holding 1 of the hands that negate a couple of our outs, like the hands that you mentioned, then we can be confident that our ace or ten is live and still get 15 or more outs, There is no hand that takes away our ace outs and some flush outs sufficiently to have us at less than 15 outs. The only hands we are in terrible shape against are sets and made flush/straight, and we still have very good equity against them
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cardsDontMatter
Rock Star
Silver Level
Two words: Pot control. Usually big hands in this situation want value, so what starts as a trickle, becomes a gusher.
I usually only CRAI here, if I have a flush, not drawing to it... and if I am drawing to the nut (not here because of the SF possibilities), I am getting chips into the pot with a 1/2 pot bet, and folding to a re-raise.
I usually only CRAI here, if I have a flush, not drawing to it... and if I am drawing to the nut (not here because of the SF possibilities), I am getting chips into the pot with a 1/2 pot bet, and folding to a re-raise.
dj11
Legend
Silver Level
I see a bunch of double counting of outs and count only about 17 myself. But by and large that isn't even what I think is important.
4 handed on the final table, with the 2 shorties going at it here. The A-T is a great hand to press with 3 handed (UTG folded), but IMO it should have happened PF, not as a semi-desperate attempt to scare off villain post flop.
Villain shares some blame here as his call was debatable on a flush flop shove.
Missing reads and table images prevent us from really discussing what was going on, but the mistake was made PF. The results would have been the same cause villain isn't laying down KK.
The one alternative, calling post flop, might have kept the 3rd player in for a turn peek.
In many ways I think you have to look at this hand as being one of those end game hands that is less than optimal both before the shove, and after. But really, not too much less than optimal. How often does a tourney close out with AA?
MSDJO
4 handed on the final table, with the 2 shorties going at it here. The A-T is a great hand to press with 3 handed (UTG folded), but IMO it should have happened PF, not as a semi-desperate attempt to scare off villain post flop.
Villain shares some blame here as his call was debatable on a flush flop shove.
Missing reads and table images prevent us from really discussing what was going on, but the mistake was made PF. The results would have been the same cause villain isn't laying down KK.
The one alternative, calling post flop, might have kept the 3rd player in for a turn peek.
In many ways I think you have to look at this hand as being one of those end game hands that is less than optimal both before the shove, and after. But really, not too much less than optimal. How often does a tourney close out with AA?
MSDJO
10crow10
Rock Star
Silver Level
With that hand and that flop there is no chance of me folding, just to big of a draw plus if your ace is live (like it was) then you have even more outs, A big draw is a big hand as far as I am concerned. Unlucky that you couldnt hit a 18 outer!
why are you only counting 3 7's and 3 Q's? Did i miss somthing?
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