20 outs - all in...

[TheseNutsWin]

Just finished my tournament.. a bit of an unlucky all in.. I figured i can hit by the river.. 20 outs - 67% I`m ahead!!! but nope...

pokerstars Game #24136431168: Tournament #135528988, $0.25+$0.00 Hold'em No Limit - Level XVII (500/1000) - 2009/01/21 16:57:40 ET
Table '135528988 10' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 4: FUSILI_JERRY (51605 in chips)
Seat 5: gskowal (35571 in chips)
Seat 7: .THE R1DDLER (58970 in chips)
Seat 9: tcefreP (33854 in chips)
FUSILI_JERRY: posts the ante 125
gskowal: posts the ante 125
.THE R1DDLER: posts the ante 125
tcefreP: posts the ante 125
.THE R1DDLER: posts small blind 500
tcefreP: posts big blind 1000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to gskowal [Tc Ah]
FUSILI_JERRY: folds
gskowal: calls 1000
.THE R1DDLER: calls 500
tcefreP: raises 1000 to 2000
gskowal: calls 1000
.THE R1DDLER: calls 1000
*** FLOP *** [9h 8h Jh]
.THE R1DDLER: checks
tcefreP: bets 10000
gskowal: raises 23446 to 33446 and is all-in
.THE R1DDLER: folds
tcefreP: calls 21729 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (1717) returned to gskowal
*** TURN *** [9h 8h Jh] [3c]
*** RIVER *** [9h 8h Jh 3c] [Js]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
tcefreP: shows [Ks Kd] (two pair, Kings and Jacks)
gskowal: shows [Tc Ah] (a pair of Jacks)
tcefreP collected 69958 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 69958 | Rake 0
Board [9h 8h Jh 3c Js]
Seat 4: FUSILI_JERRY folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: gskowal (button) showed [Tc Ah] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 7: .THE R1DDLER (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 9: tcefreP (big blind) showed [Ks Kd] and won (69958) with two pair, Kings and Jacks

 

[The Shrog]

Are you looking for an analysis here?

 

[TheseNutsWin]

yeah that would be great.. Did i overplay it? should have i just called his raise and see what happens on the river? I would have probably lost him if another heart would come out or an A so i figured with that many outs i decided to push my luck... I probably did a wrong move here.. did i?

 

[Inscore77]

Why are we shoving?

 

[TheseNutsWin]

Why are we shoving?

im sorry .. i should have not shown the results...

 

[Inscore77]

Tbh I dont need results to tell you that this is a bad shove. I know we have a lot of outs, but I really hate putting my tourney life on the line with a coin flip

 

[TheseNutsWin]

Tbh I dont need results to tell you that this is a bad shove. I know we have a lot of outs, but I really hate putting my tourney life on the line with a coin flip

It's not really a coin flip though.. i`m 61% to 37%

 

[Inscore77]

thats pretty close to flipping...

 

[TheseNutsWin]

thats pretty close to flipping...

so to you 61/37 is almost 50/50?

btw.. it should have been 21 outs.. (depending on what i put him on, i figure that even 10s or A's could be good...)

 

[Inscore77]

Lol i give up

 

[LizzyJ]

Super aggressive play bordering on controlled insanity. I have to give you major props for making that play. :icon_thum
Greg Raymer made a very similar play on The Mouth at the wsop. I made that same play at an earlier SnG. However the poker gods denied you. Denied me, too!

I have no regrets actually, I play to win. If I see an opportunity like that...take it.

This is definately not a play for the faint of heart.

 

[silverslugger33]

I don't feel like calculating odds now, because I'm pretty tired, but if you had 67% like you said, then it was the right play. If you get your chips into the pot with over 50%, then you made a good play.

 

[slycbnew]

On the flop, with 6,500 in the pot, villain overbets the pot to 10,000 after a pre-flop minraise. What are you putting him on to calculate your outs? Looking at this board, I would only be thinking that I have 9 clean outs for the nut flush and then 6 more potential outs for the straight. From the BB, if the button and SB both simply call, and I've got good suited connectors, I'll raise like villain did here (though I hate the minraise). If villain already has the flush, you're a substantial dog here. Unless you're interpreting the overbet of the pot as "I have a big pair/set" (which, as it turns out, is exactly what the overbet says) or a bluff? I definitely wouldn't see a 10 as an out...

You absolutely can't call - 10K is almost one third of your stack, villain is announcing a strong hand (whether a big pp, a set, or a flush), you're definitely dependent on a draw and, if he's already got the flush, you're not statistically ahead.

So is this a good place to push? IMO, not necessary. Your M is over 15 - time to wait for a clearer edge for a push. As the cards played, you were 61 - 37, but if you set a range of hands that the raise pre-flop plus the overbet on the flop could be, you're not that far ahead. And even at 61 - 37, there's going to be a better spot than this where you're the aggressor rather than the caller.

Just my opinion.

 

[baudib1]

Super standard, wp.

 

[switch0723]

the limp pre flop is horrible, just raise it, as played, flop shove is 100% standard

 

[baudib1]

You don't get many chances better than this to double up 4-handed. Get real.

 

[Dwilius]

the limp pre flop is horrible, just raise it, as played, flop shove is 100% standard

^^^ This, but don't know how you're counting outs OP. I see 18 since you've shown results, but 6 of those could have been to a chop if villain has JT, Th would take a couple more away. Don't know how you would think a T was good on top of 15 outs, if its not TP+ what could it be KhQ or T? Also, you don't give reads so I don't know if the minraise is strength or his normal move.

 

[silverslugger33]

You don't get many chances better than this to double up 4-handed. Get real.

You don't have to double up to gain chips. 4 handed is a time where you can steal a ton, because you're always either a blind, the button, or the CO. Poker isn't always about doubling up. Sometimes it's okay to just grind it out and gain a little bit at a time.

 

[baudib1]

If you want to win you have to double up. Get real, passing up this chance is incredibly -EV. How much grinding/stealing do you think you can do when you're 4-handed and you have less than 20% of the chips in play?

This is a clear-cut, DOUBLE-FIST PUMP instashove.

 

[shinedown.45]

On the flop, with 6,500 in the pot, villain overbets the pot to 10,000 after a pre-flop minraise. What are you putting him on to calculate your outs? Looking at this board, I would only be thinking that I have 9 clean outs for the nut flush and then 6 more potential outs for the straight. From the BB, if the button and SB both simply call, and I've got good suited connectors, I'll raise like villain did here (though I hate the minraise). If villain already has the flush, you're a substantial dog here. Unless you're interpreting the overbet of the pot as "I have a big pair/set" (which, as it turns out, is exactly what the overbet says) or a bluff? I definitely wouldn't see a 10 as an out...

You absolutely can't call - 10K is almost one third of your stack, villain is announcing a strong hand (whether a big pp, a set, or a flush), you're definitely dependent on a draw and, if he's already got the flush, you're not statistically ahead.

So is this a good place to push? IMO, not necessary. Your M is over 15 - time to wait for a clearer edge for a push. As the cards played, you were 61 - 37, but if you set a range of hands that the raise pre-flop plus the overbet on the flop could be, you're not that far ahead. And even at 61 - 37, there's going to be a better spot than this where you're the aggressor rather than the caller.

Just my opinion.

This was well put and spot on.
IMO, this is a great analysis of the hand and the correct one.

 

[baudib1]

There's no way you ever fold this, let alone when you're the shortstack at a shorthanded table.

 

[blankoblanco]

Tbh I dont need results to tell you that this is a bad shove. I know we have a lot of outs, but I really hate putting my tourney life on the line with a coin flip

the preflop limp is definitely bad, kinda makes the whole hand ugly, but once we get to the flop shoving is the only real play there is period. we have tons of equity, possibly fold equity, a lot of chips in the pot, and our outs are all obvious so calling just sucks hard. by calling we get to miss the turn half the time, and even when we hit, we sometimes won't get paid because every single one of our outs is a scare card for most of his range

not sure if you're suggesting to call or fold but both aren't good

 

[Inscore77]

the preflop limp is definitely bad, kinda makes the whole hand ugly, but once we get to the flop shoving is the only real play there is period. we have tons of equity, possibly fold equity, a lot of chips in the pot, and our outs are all obvious so calling just sucks hard. by calling we get to miss the turn half the time, and even when we hit, we sometimes won't get paid because every single one of our outs is a scare card for most of his range

not sure if you're suggesting to call or fold but both aren't good

Tbh I dont think I read the hh very well

 

[ph_il]

Just finished my tournament.. a bit of an unlucky all in.. I figured i can hit by the river.. 20 outs - 67% I`m ahead!!! but nope...

PokerStars Game #24136431168: Tournament #135528988, $0.25+$0.00 Hold'em No Limit - Level XVII (500/1000) - 2009/01/21 16:57:40 ET
Table '135528988 10' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 4: FUSILI_JERRY (51605 in chips)
Seat 5: gskowal (35571 in chips)
Seat 7: .THE R1DDLER (58970 in chips)
Seat 9: tcefreP (33854 in chips)
FUSILI_JERRY: posts the ante 125
gskowal: posts the ante 125
.THE R1DDLER: posts the ante 125
tcefreP: posts the ante 125
.THE R1DDLER: posts small blind 500
tcefreP: posts big blind 1000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to gskowal [Tc Ah]
FUSILI_JERRY: folds
gskowal: calls 1000
.THE R1DDLER: calls 500
tcefreP: raises 1000 to 2000
gskowal: calls 1000
.THE R1DDLER: calls 1000
*** FLOP *** [9h 8h Jh]
.THE R1DDLER: checks
tcefreP: bets 10000
gskowal: raises 23446 to 33446 and is all-in
.THE R1DDLER: folds
tcefreP: calls 21729 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (1717) returned to gskowal
*** TURN *** [9h 8h Jh] 3♣
*** RIVER *** [9h 8h Jh 3c] J♠
*** SHOW DOWN ***
tcefreP: shows [Ks Kd] (two pair, Kings and Jacks)
gskowal: shows [Tc Ah] (a pair of Jacks)
tcefreP collected 69958 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 69958 | Rake 0
Board [9h 8h Jh 3c Js]
Seat 4: FUSILI_JERRY folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: gskowal (button) showed [Tc Ah] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 7: .THE R1DDLER (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 9: tcefreP (big blind) showed [Ks Kd] and won (69958) with two pair, Kings and Jacks

I think you're a bit confused here. With 20 outs, you have a 67% chance to win, but you are not 67%-31% ahead. In this situation, you're behind KK but a 67% favorite to hit a winning hand by the river.

Also, how are you counting your outs? I'm only counting 15. You seem to be counting a little too many outs here.

For the nut flush, you're probably counting 9 remaining hearts but 3 of those hearts can really hurt you hand. You might not want to see the 7h, 10h, or Qh since they complete straight flush combinations. While your opponents may not hold these hands and they may be solid outs, it's a good idea to notice which outs can actually hurt your chances of winning.

 

[WurlyQ]

9 hearts, 3 Aces, 3 7s, 3 Qs = 18 outs?

I don't like the flat calls preflop but your shove post flop seems fine. You're relatively short already, there is some dead money in the pot, and there is always some chance of your opponent folding. Unless you think you can seriously outplay your opponents, I like the shove.