$2 PLO8 SnG - bubble, middle set, bad turn card

[OzExorcist]

Not really sure why, but this week's Friday variety game really put me in the mood for some PLO8 so I've been playing a few SnGs. Interested in people's thoughts on this one:

Reads - wirenutt has been playing pretty solid. Ganesh, on the other hand, has been playing awful and getting lucky. He'll do things like jam pots with trips and no low when there's potential flushes, boats and lows out there.

Preflop and flop I'm pretty happy with - I figure there's an OESD on the flop but there needs to be runner-runner for a low to come up and I'm likely good here. I'd be happy to take the pot down on the flop.

The 2c on the turn is kinda ugly though - it keeps lows possible and puts a flush draw out there. Pot size is 1680, I've got just over that behind. Ganesh has about 1500 and wirenutt obv has us both covered.

Do we slow down, or jam knowing that they must still be drawing? Other thoughts?

full tilt poker Game #9236661731: $2 + $0.25 Sit & Go (70626828), Table 1 - 40/80 - Pot Limit Omaha H/L - 20:31:17 ET - 2008/11/29
Seat 1: wirenutt (5,448)
Seat 4: OzExorcist (2,490)
Seat 6: Momanator (3,470)
Seat 8: Baby Ganesh (2,092)
wirenutt posts the small blind of 40
OzExorcist posts the big blind of 80
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to OzExorcist [9d 7c 9s 5h]
Momanator folds
Baby Ganesh calls 80
wirenutt calls 40
OzExorcist checks
*** FLOP *** [Jh 9c 4s]
wirenutt bets 80
OzExorcist raises to 480
Baby Ganesh calls 480
wirenutt calls 400
*** TURN *** [Jh 9c 4s] [2c]
wirenutt checks
OzExorcist...

 

[bubbasbestbabe]

You have two players coming along with you. As it stands you might have high but you definitely don't have any hope of the nut low. If you check you are giving all your opponents a free card to improve their hands. You also have to ask yourself what would you do if BG jams the pot. If you jam the pot you might knock out one player. Now I'm probably off a little here but you are looking at least 44 different outs combos, (low and high),from you opponents vs. 10 outs for you for the high. You are also looking at maybe splitting the pot. Bad spot for you. Check and fold to a raise.

 

[switch0723]

Am i reading this right? don't we have the 2nd nuts and a low draw to fall back on if villain has top set.

Chips should be in the middle here, so bet close to pot

 

[Sohmurr]

There are more than a fair number of redraws out which could cause a split or even cripple you with a scoop. But you are very probably in the lead here and they are still drawing. Bet near or exactly pot like switch0723 suggests and let them make the mistake of calling you. And if someone does have top set and a low draw that's better than yours, they can still pair their low hole card if a low comes so you won't likely be completely dominated in any situation.

 

[switch0723]

also i should add, the 2 of clubs is an awsome card, since it completes nothing and gives us a low redraw against top set

 

[OzExorcist]

Gotta be honest, I really didn't consider the low value of my hand in this spot. It was just so marginal. I really don't think I'm against top set here either. It's possible, but I figure JJxx probably three-bets the flop.

My problem with the 2c is that now there are pretty much no blank river cards. I figure to scoop 21.7% of the time when one of my boat outs comes, and everything else puts me in a position where I'm probably splitting at best and being scooped at worst.

Baby Ganesh could have pretty much anything here, but my read on wirenutt is that he's solid. I don't think he's bet-calling that flop without at least some good draws.

Any other thoughts before we do results?

 

[switch0723]

1 more thought

chips ------> middle

i don't understand bbb's advice on check/folding, since we have the 2nd nuts and a low draw, we should be bet/shipping not check folding

 

[OzExorcist]

Fair enough. Here's the result:

*** TURN *** [Jh 9c 4s] [2c]
wirenutt checks
OzExorcist bets 1,680
Baby Ganesh has 15 seconds left to act
Baby Ganesh folds
wirenutt calls 1,680
*** RIVER *** [Jh 9c 4s 2c] [5c] (Heinous river card, obv...)
wirenutt bets 2,520
OzExorcist calls 250, and is all in
Uncalled bet of 2,270 returned to wirenutt
*** SHOW DOWN ***
wirenutt wins the high pot (2,770) with a flush, Queen high
wirenutt wins the low pot (2,770) with 6,5,4,3,2
OzExorcist stands up

Even though I know I had the best hand on the turn, I can't actually work out if I was a favourite at that point and if I was, exactly how big of a one I was. Anyone know the actual math?

 

[bubbasbestbabe]

Don't know the exact math but I do know that you didn't have the nut high or the nut low. You are betting into the pot with a good HE hand but a lousy PLO/8 hand. You have no redraws after the turn. Basically you are betting dead into the pot. If you had some feasible redraws then maybe depending on what they are I would say bet the turn. One thing you have to learn in Omaha is that sometimes you have to respect the board and give credit to the player. There is very little bluffing done in Omaha. Most times you are putting up whose hand has the better draw to the river. If you don't have the redraws then it is not worth throwing your chips away. This is why I said check fold.

 

[pantin007]

Don't know the exact math but I do know that you didn't have the nut high or the nut low. You are betting into the pot with a good HE hand but a lousy PLO/8 hand. You have no redraws after the turn. Basically you are betting dead into the pot. If you had some feasible redraws then maybe depending on what they are I would say bet the turn. One thing you have to learn in Omaha is that sometimes you have to respect the board and give credit to the player. There is very little bluffing done in Omaha. Most times you are putting up whose hand has the better draw to the river. If you don't have the redraws then it is not worth throwing your chips away. This is why I said check fold.

i can understand were ur coming from but check folding seems a little too nitty and it might be -ev
imo, oz played the hand fine, his line on the turn was pretty standard and he just got a bit unlucky that the river completed everything

 

[bubbasbestbabe]

In hold em maybe but not Omaha. It took me a while to let go of that notion too. The thing about Omaha is that you are playing to the river. And if you don't have redraws to it you will find that you will be a losing player. Unless of course you have the nut high or low. He didn't.

 

[pantin007]

ok bbb, lets look at the flop, wouldnt u say it is standard? i want to pick ur mind a bit, u have more experience so i want ur oppinion on the flop

 

[bubbasbestbabe]

Full Tilt poker game #9236661731: $2 + $0.25 Sit & Go (70626828), Table 1 - 40/80 - Pot Limit Omaha H/L - 20:31:17 ET - 2008/11/29
Seat 1: wirenutt (5,448)
Seat 4: OzExorcist (2,490)
Seat 6: Momanator (3,470)
Seat 8: Baby Ganesh (2,092)
wirenutt posts the small blind of 40
OzExorcist posts the big blind of 80
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to OzExorcist [9d 7c 9s 5h]
Momanator folds
Baby Ganesh calls 80
wirenutt calls 40
OzExorcist checks
*** FLOP *** [Jh 9c 4s] You hit second set. Also outside str8 possibilities.
wirenutt bets 80
OzExorcist raises to 480 Good bet. At this point you want to get max amount in. I am actually looking to end the hand here now.
Baby Ganesh calls 480
wirenutt calls 400
Having one follow is okay. Two should give you pause. This is when I start to reevaluate my hand. At this point I figure that someone has either a set of Js , a high str8 draw, or A, 2. I'm not figuring a flush here because of the rainbow flop. So now to win I don't have that many draws. I don't have draws to the low. I only have second high set. Not a good spot here with two callers.

 

[switch0723]

Don't know the exact math but I do know that you didn't have the nut high or the nut low. You are betting into the pot with a good HE hand but a lousy PLO/8 hand. You have no redraws after the turn. Basically you are betting dead into the pot. If you had some feasible redraws then maybe depending on what they are I would say bet the turn. One thing you have to learn in Omaha is that sometimes you have to respect the board and give credit to the player. There is very little bluffing done in Omaha. Most times you are putting up whose hand has the better draw to the river. If you don't have the redraws then it is not worth throwing your chips away. This is why I said check fold.

But we have the best hand, and have at least 40% of the deck as scooping river cards, which means we have an equity edge. In holdem you ship this in, in omaha you ship this in. Pretty certain you have best hand + redraw to high and low if villain wakes up with top set = chips in the middle. Even if villain by some miracle has J,J,Ac,3c, we still aren't drawing dead. It makes no sense to check fold here.

If we had pocket 8's on a j,8c,4c flop, then you can play it slow if you have no redraws. But this is completely different since there are no straight/flush possibilities, we have redraws if we are coolered and there is only 1 card to come

 

[bubbasbestbabe]

[Jh 9c 4s] is the flop. There is a straight possibility there. Also one of the villains could have JJ. You do not have the best hand. You have second best. The turn is when I say you need to reevaluate your hand. I believe there are something like 44 out combo's that your opponents could have vs. I believe only 10 outs for you. Definitely -ev in my book when playing Omaha/8.

 

[switch0723]

on a J,9,4 flop there is a straight draw possibility, no straight possibility. If you aren't willing to get it all in here, what exactly are we waiting for, top set with nut low draw? Since thats like waiting for kings or aces before entering a pot in holdem

 

[c9h13no3]

[Jh 9c 4s] is the flop. There is a straight possibility there. Also one of the villains could have JJ. You do not have the best hand. You have second best. The turn is when I say you need to reevaluate your hand. I believe there are something like 44 out combo's that your opponents could have vs. I believe only 10 outs for you. Definitely -ev in my book when playing Omaha/8.

Was that english? Because none of it made any sense. There's no straight on a J94 board, and I'm certainly not folding the turn with a marginal low draw & the 2nd nuts on the turn. We *MUST KNOW* our opponent has JJ here to fold, because even if he has a wheel wrap and a flush draw, we still have 55% equity in the pot:

And even when he has a hand like JJ with no low, we still have 20% equity in the pot:

Plus, there's a million hands out there like weaker draws, and pair + draw combo's that we have crushed. We're short-handed, and we need to make things happen, and now is a great time for it. Folding here is so bad.

BBB, when it comes to posting advice on Omaha 8 hands, you're horrible. I'm not trying to be mean, I'm just letting you know because you obviously don't realize this.

 

[bubbasbestbabe]

I was responding to the first part of this post and his hand. "Reads - wirenutt has been playing pretty solid. Ganesh, on the other hand, has been playing awful and getting lucky. He'll do things like jam pots with trips and no low when there's potential flushes, boats and lows out there."

You have two other players in this hand. I'm saying your hand doesn't hold up at the turn. What is so bad about folding there? You don't have the hand there to risk your tournament life there.

 

[rwilson]

I can see both sides of this argument, but I don't think BBB is 'out of line' like everyone is making out.

On the flop you need to be reraising, no doubt there. On the turn you're in big trouble with two callers. There's basically no cards on the river that are going to be good for you.

You wouldn't even give consideration to the 7,5 low that you might hit.. one of the two chasers is near certain to have to have a better low as back up otherwise they wouldn't both be calling the flop bet. An 8 hit's the board and the high straight chaser makes his straight.. any other low card is quite possibly going to make a low straight for someone as well, which means you're up the creek there.

Any club and you're stuffed. If there's two clubs on the board and you haven't got two in your hand, then the majority of the time one of the other two will. You have to assume that a club comes you're beat.

Any K,Q,10 and you're assuming you're probably beat.

What does that leave you with? The best case scenario is the board pairs and your set of 9's was the best hand on the turn.

Best 'made' hand means stuff all in this game, unless all 5 community cards are out... This hand heads up in this situation is very playable. Against two players I don't see how you can advocate going full steam ahead on the turn.. this hand is not going to scoop on the river as often as it splits or gets beaten against two other callers.


The equity numbers above are well and good, but they're pitching this hand in two separate scenarios. Run the same hand against the KQJJ and AA35 hand at the same time on the turn, then have a look at the 9975 hands equity then. or even against a similar low hand and a wrap straight high hand at the same time.

You're in no mans land on the turn. There's a good reason why it's very difficult to play hands like 9975 in PLO8 and this is it right here. They very very rarely scoop pots.. especially against two other drawers'

 

[bubbasbestbabe]

^^^^^ this in a nutshell exactly.
rwilson articulated his response a lot better than mine,(thank you), but this is exactly why he should have checked folded on the turn.

 

[switch0723]

the major problem with the responses is that they are flawed, your thinking about the possible river cards, when you have very likely the best hand on the turn. Therefore like in every other game of poker, you get your money in on the turn when your hand is still good and don't worry about what 'could' come since it hasn't yet and your hand is still good.

With your responses its like saying, i fold AcAx7c8x on a Ad,9c,Tc,2d board, because the river could be a diamond or a jack or something scary that i don't like

you also need to remember that stacks aren't deep, we are effectively shoving all in when we bet this turn, another major reason to put chips in the pot

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

the fact that there is even a debate here is ridiculous.

the 2c isn't a 'bad card', it's one of the best cards that could have come for you, obvious alternatives aside. any other low card that doesn't fill us up puts a possible low draw out and any other high card that doesn't fill us up puts a possible straight out and the 2 has the added bonus of both counterfeiting A2xx hands and maybe making someone with A2xx a weak two pair that they won't be able to get rid of - if people here are seriously suggesting we fold the turn then they should be suggesting we just openfold the flop or something as we're not going to like any turn card that doesn't fill us up.

we likely have 50% equity in a three-way pot. if you're going to fold while you have 50% equity in a three way pot you are going to lose money at poker, 'tis simple.

 

[OzExorcist]

We *MUST KNOW* our opponent has JJ here to fold, because even if he has a wheel wrap and a flush draw, we still have 55% equity in the pot:

And even when he has a hand like JJ with no low, we still have 20% equity in the pot:

Plus, there's a million hands out there like weaker draws, and pair + draw combo's that we have crushed. We're short-handed, and we need to make things happen, and now is a great time for it. Folding here is so bad.

This is kinda what I was after, cheers.

Just realised I didn't paste the villain's actual hand into the results: he showed [3s 6d Qc Tc]

Against that exact hand the calculator puts it at 50% to scoop and 60% equity in the pot, and after JJA3 I guess this is pretty much the worst case scenario for us. If I got it in at 60:40 I'm happy with that:

 

[rwilson]

This is what I was getting at.. I actually thought off the top of my head these hands would have been closer to 50/50 or 55/45 HU but anyways..

I'm never saying fold the turn, but I don't think it's an obvious jam on the turn either. A hand like this (Q,10,3,6) that's drawing to the high and low is less than a 2:1 dog, and one of your opponents at least is bound to have something like this, if not both. An opponent with a hand like this isn't folding to any bet you make at this stage, so why commit yourself to the pot.

The blinds aren't that high and you've still got a decent stack behind you on the turn. You're sitting on the bubble. I don't see why we're definitely shoving here. I'd be more inclined to try to keep the pot down.

This move isn't about doubling your chips, it's the difference between winning $3-$9, or $0. Your opponent has you well covered so calling down with hands that are marginally behind isn't hurting him.

Your doubling your chips if it holds up, but you're not coming close to doubling your equity in the prizepool.

 

[OzExorcist]

I'm never saying fold the turn, but I don't think it's an obvious jam on the turn either. A hand like this (Q,10,3,6) that's drawing to the high and low is less than a 2:1 dog, and one of your opponents at least is bound to have something like this, if not both. An opponent with a hand like this isn't folding to any bet you make at this stage, so why commit yourself to the pot.

I agree absolutely, there was pretty much no way he was folding his hand there. If he misses on the river, however, we're not getting any more chips out of him either.

One thing that I do remember factoring into my decision was the likelihood that Ganesh would come along for the ride drawing all but dead in both directions. Seems dumb, I know, but he'd shown a few times previously he was capable of that, and we haven't really discussed his presence in the hand much.

Does the possibility of a big injection of dead money in the hand change people's opinions any? I'm assuming it'll only reinforce the positions of those that wanted to jam the turn