$2 PLO8 SnG - bubble, middle set, bad turn card

[switch0723]

i still dont understand the whole 'we have the best hand, but a scary card could come on the river so i won't put my chips in' arguement

 

[rwilson]

i still dont understand the whole 'we have the best hand, but a scary card could come on the river so i won't put my chips in' arguement

Because it's an sng, not a cash game... and he's on the bubble.

I'm not saying that the line taken was bad or incorrect.. It's just not an 'insta' jam position like everyone is making out.

 

[switch0723]

the fact that its on the bubble of a sit n go shouldnt make a difference, we have huge equity to become chip leader and then give ourselves best shot at first place

 

[c9h13no3]

the fact that its on the bubble of a sit n go shouldnt make a difference, we have huge equity to become chip leader and then give ourselves best shot at first place

Obviously because online poker is rigged switch, and he will gin the river. The donks always win, haven't you been reading the poker strategy forum? Kings never hold up, and we lose when we have a massive equity edge in the pot.

 

[OzExorcist]

i still dont understand the whole 'we have the best hand, but a scary card could come on the river so i won't put my chips in' arguement

I could understand it if it was a case of "We've got the best hand right now, but the villain has so many outs that we're actually a 45-55 dog". But it's not the case, nor does it seem it could ever be as we're only a dog in this spot in whole-pot equity terms if we're up against JJxx.

And like I said earlier, I never figured to be up against JJ in this spot - if either player had that they had to be reraising me on the flop.

My question's answered and I thank y'all for your input. By no means let this be the end of the discussion if anyone wants to carry it on though

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Does the possibility of a big injection of dead money in the hand change people's opinions any? I'm assuming it'll only reinforce the positions of those that wanted to jam the turn

hmm let's see do we want more dead money in the pot or less?

 

[dsvw56]

the fact that its on the bubble of a sit n go shouldnt make a difference, we have huge equity to become chip leader and then give ourselves best shot at first place

Actually it makes a huge different. cEV =/= $EV. As you accumulate more chips in a SnG structure, each chip you gain has less and less value than the one you gained before it. So you're constantly wagering chips of a higher value to win chips of a lower value. Therefore, just because a play is going to win you chips, doesnt mean it is +$EV, a play has to be able to cover that difference. And this difference between cEV and $EV is most prominent at the bubble in a SnG. There's plenty of spots in SnG's where you need like 70+% equity vs. someones shoving range before calling will show a profit.

I havn't done the math on this particular hand to see how it works out, but being on the bubble of a SnG has a huge impact on whatever decision needs to be made.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

but everyone is pretty deep stacked here (as deep stacked as we're probably ever going to be on a SNG bubble). it's not like we should be sitting around waiting for a shorty with 3bbs to bust because there isn't such a shorty here and we are starting the hand as the second shortest stack in any case.

even if we assume no fold equity i'm pretty sure this is still a +$EV turn shove (well, effective shove) given our equity and the likely dead money as more often than not a turn bet will get rid of one opponent. given the fact that of course sometimes both villains will fold, it doesn't seem particularly close.