cjatud2012
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Silver Level
If we fold, our equity is 10.6%, and if we shove and win, our equity is 20.9%. So to determine the equity we need, we can do the following equation:
x*(.209-.106) + (1-x)*(0-.106) = 0
where 'x' is the amount of time we need to win. Solving this equation, we find 'x' to be 50.7%. So that's the amount of equity we need. Based on the range we assign to villain, we may have more or less. This seems to be the disputed part. I really feel that we would have at least that much equity.
x*(.209-.106) + (1-x)*(0-.106) = 0
where 'x' is the amount of time we need to win. Solving this equation, we find 'x' to be 50.7%. So that's the amount of equity we need. Based on the range we assign to villain, we may have more or less. This seems to be the disputed part. I really feel that we would have at least that much equity.
Last edited:
dg1267
Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
You can check/fold here if you like and it's not a horrible thing to do if you only play 5 of these a day.
But if you play 20-50 of these games a day, it starts to become a leak that is big enough that it needs fixed. That's all anyone is saying. You can do whatever you want with AK. But the math has been put out there that says a shove here is as close to optimal as your getting.
You keep saying that we are behind if he has a pair, but you're forgetting about the times we suck out and win. Those times counter your argument against shoving. You're thinking is biased towards "what if". Well, we're playing in a $2 SnG. "What if" could be as strongly argued for 9Ts here as it could be for PP's.
atlantafalcons0
Legend
Silver Level
It all depends on the range that we put villian on.
That's the part that we can't agree on. Just because it was posted that villian had 33 doesn't mean that we can use that information to put him on a range.
I'm still learning at poker, obviously. I post here to learn, not to try to tell everyone that I'm right. If shoving ace king here is the right play, then I've learned something. Ace king is one of the most difficult hands to play imo.
dg1267
Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Yes, AK can be pretty tricky. I'd rather look at A2 and just fold it myself sometimes. But the key here is what play will make your life easier. That would be shoving because if we win, we double our chips. If we lose, we go on to the next tourney and hope not to get into that type of situation again.
When you are multi-tabling, you just have to learn to make your life a little easier sometimes and not causing yourself to make bad decisions on other tables due to tough decisions on any one table. I'm still learning as well, but after my coach gave me that piece of info it has made adding tables (adding $/per hour) a lot easier.
When you are multi-tabling, you just have to learn to make your life a little easier sometimes and not causing yourself to make bad decisions on other tables due to tough decisions on any one table. I'm still learning as well, but after my coach gave me that piece of info it has made adding tables (adding $/per hour) a lot easier.
TheKAAHK
CardsChat Elite
Silver Level
Equity Win Tie
AKo : 74.067% 71.74% 2.33%
AJo : 25.933% 23.60% "
AKo : 45.742% 45.51% 0.23%
22-88 : 54.258% 54.03% "
AKo : 67.883% 62.35% 5.54%
A5s+ : 32.117% 26.58% "
AKo : 43.960% 43.76% 0.20%
88-JJ : 56.040% 55.84% "
AKo : 34.955% 34.64% 0.32%
JJ-AA : 65.045% 64.73% "
AKo : 74.067% 71.74% 2.33%
AJo : 25.933% 23.60% "
AKo : 45.742% 45.51% 0.23%
22-88 : 54.258% 54.03% "
AKo : 67.883% 62.35% 5.54%
A5s+ : 32.117% 26.58% "
AKo : 43.960% 43.76% 0.20%
88-JJ : 56.040% 55.84% "
AKo : 34.955% 34.64% 0.32%
JJ-AA : 65.045% 64.73% "
TheKAAHK
CardsChat Elite
Silver Level
Above are the Pokerstove calcs for AKo vs a Turbo Micro SNG 3 bettor range. Aside from any ICM calculations (which I did not do), PS shows we're behind 3 out of 5 possible range sets.
Fold and wait for better position?
Maybe someone else can take more out of these calcs and interperet them better.
Fold and wait for better position?
Maybe someone else can take more out of these calcs and interperet them better.
WVHillbilly
Legend
Silver Level
It doesn't work like that. Evaluate it against the entire range.
Using yours (22+/AJo+/A5s+) we're better than 53% favorite.
atlantafalcons0
Legend
Silver Level
LMAO @ A5s+.
dg1267
Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Again, no offense, AF, but do you just have something out for this thread? WVH? OP?
I've seen plenty of morons ship it with A5s in $2 tournies. It's been proven over and over that this play can just about be anything at this level. If you don't believe me, I can play for a week and show you at least 10 screen shots of it happening. But constantly posting comments such as the one above is getting this thread nowhere. If you have proof that nobody will ship with Xx hand, then by all means, prove it.
I've seen plenty of morons ship it with A5s in $2 tournies. It's been proven over and over that this play can just about be anything at this level. If you don't believe me, I can play for a week and show you at least 10 screen shots of it happening. But constantly posting comments such as the one above is getting this thread nowhere. If you have proof that nobody will ship with Xx hand, then by all means, prove it.
WVHillbilly
Legend
Silver Level
I wasn't making any assumption about his range, just using the range that TheKAAHK put in his post. Guess you missed the USING YOURS from the post you quoted.
And again yeah no one's ever called a shove in a $2 TURBO tourney with a random Axs hand.
dg1267
Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Dorkus Malorkus
HELLO INTERNET
Silver Level
I wasn't making any assumption about his range, just using the range that TheKAAHK put in his post. Guess you missed the USING YOURS from the post you quoted.
And again yeah no one's ever called a shove in a $2 TURBO tourney with a random Axs hand.
It would be nearly as ridiculous as calling a 3-bet shove with 33..... oh wait.
falcons I'm sorry but you're way off the mark here in more ways than I care to explain. You simply can't pick and choose your ranges based on what seems convenient to your argument.
If a person is min 3-betting and calling a shove with pairs as small as 33 then we have to assume in the absence of a specific "overvalues small pairs" read that he is also min 3-betting and calling with more unpaired hands than normal too. Hence his range will generally be wider, hence while the number of hands in his range that we're flipping with widens (which isn't a terrible result as already mentioned), so too does the number of hands in his range that we dominate, and both of these widening means that the number of hands in his range that dominate us becomes less and less significant.
You seem to be arguing that the knowledge that villain will call a shove with 33 is an argument against shoving when in fact it is quite the opposite.
Of course this is all results-based thinking but there is a lesson in there somewhere.
M
Marginal
Junior Member
Silver Level
Im not reading through all this drivel after the main points have been summed up but this is for atlanta, the reason it is still profitable with AK against pocket pairs is because of the dead money, if the remaining stacks get in with the 380 in the pot already, while we are a slight underdog the fact that that money is there makes the play +cEV. So that covers the part where he has a pair and if he shoves 33, he is also shoving decent Kings and most Aces which make it even more profitable.
Btw, it should be noted that in every thread like this, atlanta has never posted anything but this. He will never shove with AK in any kind of situation like this.
Btw, it should be noted that in every thread like this, atlanta has never posted anything but this. He will never shove with AK in any kind of situation like this.
atlantafalcons0
Legend
Silver Level
We can't assume that he's calling the shove with 33 even if we know he did.
I'm trying to understand why a shove is the only play for you folks, that's all.
I feel I am being attacked for wanting to call....
I'm always on the other side of the fence when it comes to ace king.....
People in this thread are using the knowledge that villian called the shove with 33 to come up with a range that is too wide IMO.
Last edited:
WVHillbilly
Legend
Silver Level
Well before we knew he had 33, I assumed a range like JJ+/AJs+/AQo+. Guess what? We're ahead of that range with AKo (even without the dead money)!
Have you ever used PokerStove? Maybe you should play around with it a bit to see just how well AK plays against various ranges. Now ask yourself what happens when you just call OOP with it. On a A or K high flop you get one bet maybe if you're ahead and on everything else you've already said you'd fold to a cbet.
dg1267
Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Not really attacking you, just hard to get the right words out. But it's the action after the call that makes me cringe with AK. More than not, you're not going to hit the flop. With a flat call of that 3bet you are giving up aggression, and this means that you are risking getting pushed off of your hand on any flop that doesn't contain an A or a K (or QJT). If I've got position on you and you check to me on a dry board, I'm sticking a bet in there no matter what I have.
So what all of that adds up to is the risk vs. the reward. With flatting and check/fold you risk losing the chips you've left in the middle and quite a bit of equity in the tourney. If you shove, you you are risking the same but with a much better chance at either getting him to fold preflop or winning the hand outright at the river. And with the ranges given (whether they be tight or loose) we are either ahead or just barely behind tons of hands they could be holding.
So what all of that adds up to is the risk vs. the reward. With flatting and check/fold you risk losing the chips you've left in the middle and quite a bit of equity in the tourney. If you shove, you you are risking the same but with a much better chance at either getting him to fold preflop or winning the hand outright at the river. And with the ranges given (whether they be tight or loose) we are either ahead or just barely behind tons of hands they could be holding.
Pascal-lf
Legend
Silver Level
No way can you ever peel a min 3bet OOP with AK...
The closest I would come to that is to 4bet it to ~half my stack and ship any flop.
Donks are terrified of aces in raised pots, you lose so much value by peeling and shipping on an ace and giving him the chance to hero fold his midpair.
The closest I would come to that is to 4bet it to ~half my stack and ship any flop.
Donks are terrified of aces in raised pots, you lose so much value by peeling and shipping on an ace and giving him the chance to hero fold his midpair.
Dorkus Malorkus
HELLO INTERNET
Silver Level
No, no, I wasn't trying to use it as an argument for shoving in the first place given that of course we didn't have this knowledge, I was just trying to correct your misunderstanding that having 33 in his calling a shove range somehow makes calling preflop optimal. Of course 33 isn't in an average player's range here.
What range are you giving him, results aside? Personally I think even WVHs range above is generously narrow for an average $2 SNG player especially given that the minraise would seem to tip us off that he's bad. I'd say maybe TT+/AJo+/ATs+ and maybe some random other broadway hands, and I still have a feeling I'm not thinking widely enough, but we'll roll with this and narrow it even more by ignoring random KQs-type hands.
In that range we flip with QQ/JJ/TT, we dominate AQ/AJ/ATs, and we're dominated by AA/KK. There are 11 combinations of AQ and AJ and 3 of ATs, and 3 combinations of AA and KK with 6 of QQ, JJ and TT (bearing in mind we have AK). I think anyway, I've only just woke up. I'm not very far off accurate anyway.
So that's 6 combinations of hands we're dominated by, 18 combinations of hands we're flipping with, and 25 combinations of hands we dominate with dead money galore in the pot already. Why, given this situation, would we not shove?
Pascal-lf
Legend
Silver Level
No, no, I wasn't trying to use it as an argument for shoving in the first place given that of course we didn't have this knowledge, I was just trying to correct your misunderstanding that having 33 in his calling a shove range somehow makes calling preflop optimal. Of course 33 isn't in an average player's range here.
What range are you giving him, results aside? Personally I think even WVHs range above is generously narrow for an average $2 SNG player especially given that the minraise would seem to tip us off that he's bad. I'd say maybe TT+/AJo+/ATs+ and maybe some random other broadway hands, and I still have a feeling I'm not thinking widely enough, but we'll roll with this and narrow it even more by ignoring random KQs-type hands.
In that range we flip with QQ/JJ/TT, we dominate AQ/AJ/ATs, and we're dominated by AA/KK. There are 11 combinations of AQ and AJ and 3 of ATs, and 3 combinations of AA and KK with 6 of QQ, JJ and TT (bearing in mind we have AK). I think anyway, I've only just woke up. I'm not very far off accurate anyway.
So that's 6 combinations of hands we're dominated by, 18 combinations of hands we're flipping with, and 25 combinations of hands we dominate with dead money galore in the pot already. Why, given this situation, would we not shove?
Because he's got 33 obv
:santaclau
atlantafalcons0
Legend
Silver Level
No, no, I wasn't trying to use it as an argument for shoving in the first place given that of course we didn't have this knowledge, I was just trying to correct your misunderstanding that having 33 in his calling a shove range somehow makes calling preflop optimal. Of course 33 isn't in an average player's range here.
What range are you giving him, results aside? Personally I think even WVHs range above is generously narrow for an average $2 SNG player especially given that the minraise would seem to tip us off that he's bad. I'd say maybe TT+/AJo+/ATs+ and maybe some random other broadway hands, and I still have a feeling I'm not thinking widely enough, but we'll roll with this and narrow it even more by ignoring random KQs-type hands.
In that range we flip with QQ/JJ/TT, we dominate AQ/AJ/ATs, and we're dominated by AA/KK. There are 11 combinations of AQ and AJ and 3 of ATs, and 3 combinations of AA and KK with 6 of QQ, JJ and TT (bearing in mind we have AK). I think anyway, I've only just woke up. I'm not very far off accurate anyway.
So that's 6 combinations of hands we're dominated by, 18 combinations of hands we're flipping with, and 25 combinations of hands we dominate with dead money galore in the pot already. Why, given this situation, would we not shove?
This definately gives me pause on the whole situation.
I guess the worry of being completely crushed by some hands makes me want to protect my chips. I guess that's the wrong thought process. I've been playing only limit holdem (aside from freerolls) so maybe that's messing me up.
To the bold part: I see what you mean. Those hands we are flipping with or have dominated would increase with the widening of what we think villian's range is - It's hard to ignore that he called the shove with 33, but even with this info it only makes the shoving ace king argument stronger - not weaker.
Thanks for clearing this up and helping me see that my ranges for certain players given their action are too narrow. Ace king has always been a jerk to me - maybe it's because I don't give it enough credit for being a premium hand.
AF
TheKAAHK
CardsChat Elite
Silver Level
You're right, we are. Just plugged it in and we are 52.97%. Small margin, but add the dead money and I can see how this would be a profitable shove. Especially with the fold equity involved in the stack sizes. Thank you for clearing that up WVH.
OzExorcist
Broomcorn's uncle
Bronze Level
Yeah... see I can understand wanting to protect your chips early in the game, it's just I couldn't understand why calling with AK out of position was something you'd want to do to achieve that end - especially if you were putting the villain on a strong range.
I don't play much LHE, but if this were limit whether you win or (more likely) lose you'll only be playing a smallish pot the majority of the time. In NLHE, however, you're usually losing a small pot, sometimes winning a small one or sometimes losing a big one when you flat with this hand. The occasions when we win a big pot are rare and we stand a much greater chance of winning a big pot if we shove preflop because flipping hands / big aces might give us action that they wouldn't give on a flop that misses them.
In NLHE if you want to "protect your chips" in a spot like this you do it by folding preflop, not by calling. Obviously the consensus ITT is that AK is a strong enough hand that we should be thinking about using it to accumulate chips, not protect the ones we already have, but if you were sitting with a more marginal hand you'd protect your chips better by folding rather than calling.