$125 NLHE MTT Turbo Rebuy: Check raise all in with OESD and 2 overs?

[Jacki Burkhart]

To make this hand make any sense you need to know the table conditions.

We are down to 14 players in a 100+ player tourney. 10 paid

7 handed. I have been inactive due to being totally card dead. I've blinded down to about 40,000 and average stack is 60,000. Blinds are 300/1000/2000. so my M=7.8 and average M=12.

The SB is away from the table for the last several hands. The BB is the big stack with about 90,000 but seems like a Rock.

I've had almost no opportunities to steal because the player to my right opens nearly every pot when it folds to him and I've had NOTHING to play back at him with. (not even speculative hands)

OK, so finally it folds to me in the Hijack (4th to act). I promise myself before I even look at my cards that I am raising any 2. I also promise myself that if I get called and I connect with the flop in any way I'm probably going to have to make a stand with this hand, or else I'm just going to get run over at this table and blind out.

I look down at and I'm pretty happy to see that hand as it's much better than the crap I've been getting, and it's pretty live against the calling ranges of the players left to act.

I raise it up to 5,000

the Button flats me. Immediately I know what he's up to. He has about 70k and is a young player with decent skills but he thinks he is pretty hot shit.

We played at the last table together and he thinks I am a nit and he is planning to take this pot away from me with position. I've seen him do it to other "nits". I put his range not quite on any 2 cards, but I think it's even possible I might be ahead right now, that he might have a hand like smaller suited connecters, J8, T7, basically I put his range on like the top 75% of hands and I am probably about 40% against that range.

Before I see the flop I memorize my 2 cards and suits as usual, and I decide that if I totally miss the flop I'm going to open jam (especially if the flop has an A, as it is totally in my perceived range). and if I like the flop I'm going to check to induce his bluff and then check-raise him all in.

pot contains 15,100. Heads up to the flop.

flop is

perfect! This is one of the better possible flops for my hand. If he has made 1 pair with no straight draw (a hand like J6) then I'm 50% to win. If he has 2 overs like KJ then I'm 50% to win. I'm really only behind if he has a pair AND a straight draw, or a set or 2 pair. I don't think he could have an overpair as in all likelihood it would be 99+ (because I hold blockers against 77 or 88) and he would probably 3bet with 99+ preflop. So, I quickly decide to go for the check-raise all in, and if he has a monster then oh well, I have outs.

so I check and he overbets the pot for 25,000.

yikes! I hate that bet as it removes any fold equity that I have. If I go all in it's only for 10k more and he'll have to call even with his bluffs getting better than 6:1. On the other hand, the fact that he overbet the pot confirms to me that he DOESN'T have a monster.

should I just stick with my plan and go all in? should I fold? should I flat and then jam the turn which looks really strong? Should I have open jammed on the flop?

 

[WiZZiM]

i'd like to know what you think is a speculative hand. if you have reads that he opens very wide, we can jam with just about anything. doing it here and there gives him something to think about, it might lead to use getting chances to raise in future hands, and we likely pick up a decent amount of chips jamming over him.7

I think i just c-bet here, main reason is i would think he would flat us really wide here, then we can just jam it all in on the turn. If we bet and he raises us, i think we just get it in cos we have decent equity vs anything but overpairs or better which are all very unlikely based on your reads. as played i have no idea, looks like he is protecting his hand here, so likely a 5x or 6x, both of which we have a huge amounts of outs against. I likely just get it in here, i'd probably just call his bet and shove the turn myself, hoping he does something stupid like make a hero fold, or we might fold out some overcard type hands, it's a long shot, but we have no fold equity on the flop, we might have some on the turn, no harm done either way.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

i'd like to know what you think is a speculative hand. if you have reads that he opens very wide, we can jam with just about anything. doing it here and there gives him something to think about, it might lead to use getting chances to raise in future hands, and we likely pick up a decent amount of chips jamming over him.

Good points. Since you asked, when I say "speculative hand" I generally mean small pairs, suited 1 gappers and 2 gappers, bigger unsuited connectors such as 9To, J9o, suited ace rag and suited king medium.

However, when I consider the re-steal all in move I usually like to have a bit more than my regular speculative hands since I'm putting all my chips on the line and they DID raise which means they probably have at least something. Generally, depending on how active the player is and our stack sizes, I'm re-stealing all in with roughly the top half of my speculative hand range such as bigger suited aces like A8s+, pairs 55+, suited connectors down to 76s, suited kings down to K9s and for some reason I really don't like to re steal all in with Ace rag, QT, QJ, or KJ as I feel those particular hands are in very bad shape when you do get called...that last part could just be superstition IDK...

But I like your take of potentially earning myself future opportunities to raise. Of course I've long realized the value of restealing as it buys you a bigger pot than just winning the blinds alone, and you get to play in position when you're called etc but sitting at the table in the heat of the moment I often forget to factor in the "value" of future opportunities or essentially the "fear equity" I might be able to leverage. That is a good reminder. And of course the times you get called and you have 40% equity and double thru gives the WHOLE table a lot to think about.

 

[WiZZiM]

it's more about the range of hands they might open, and the range of hands they will call with. IF he's raising 50% of hands but calling only 10% (rough guesstimates will do at the table) then you have a ton of FE so you really only need something remotely connected.

Just take a peek into the future if you don't take on this player, he's going to continue doing it, you're going to continue being blinded out. Also, keep in mind, sometimes your 3betshove will get called, would you prefer it to be with 20BBs or 15BB in future hands. I like to get in as soon as i pick up a read or feeling that a player is raising wide and unlikely to call us.

Another point is to be mentioned... Our first 3bet shove always gets more respect first time around. This is great because it means it's more likely to work, but also since we're going to get called more in the future, it also sets us up for when we actually have a value hand, so basically we get paid more with our monsters if we have a looser than average 3bet rate.

 

[suby_rafael]

Considering all the situations i would fold this hand here because by making the overbet, villain did put us in a bad spot and anything other than a fold here would be negative EV. This is not the spot to get our chips in with 8 high and hope to get lucky hitting our straight outs.

On the other hand i don't mind jamming all in on the flop because it will put the pressure on villain and put him in a spot with speculative/marginal hands. And if he has a straight, two pair or set then he obviously will call us which we would hate but we have decent number of outs to catch and take down the whole thing. And we would not regret risking our stack on that spot if we lose.

So i think you should change up your plans a bit and not put another chip in.
Fold. Wait for another spot. You'll still have a shoving stack left to steal a few blinds. :fight:

 

[MasterOfDisaster]

Id probably just Cbet /GII.

 

[joker131]

being delt 87 saying u bean card dead. then playing thease 2 cards speculating the big blind will fold. no u got 20 big blinds to play down. your better waiting a few hands get a couple off pictures and shoving

 

[Tgen]

Do you even know your range from hijack? if you dont then how is supposed someone to make an analysis about your hand? also 78o open from hijack is very wide open in a unknown table , just because you are card dead it doesnt mean you should force something to happen , you assume you will make your situation better but thats not the case , you may actually make it worse , if your table was very tight then that could potentially be a good open but you dont have reads do you?

Anyway dry flops are difficult flops to defend because you usually have nothing , the wider your range the harder they become ,his overbet doesnt have to work a lot amount of the time to pay him , a lot of people abuse this double pot overbet , if you plan to fold a lot in this situation then you basically get exploited unless you have a solid read that his overbets means a nut hand and i think you dont have this read.

By giving up the initiative then you have to defend at least a fairly amount of the time , in this situation lets say something between 50-60% , do you think
you will be able to defend against this bet in this percentage if you give up your straight draw? when you plan to give up the initiative then you should
always consider what would happen if you face an overbet , you should have a plan to defend against it , if you dont then you will burn a lot of money against smart people , in this situation you cant really defend with this hand against such bet therefore it may be better to just bet or shove this hand.

 

[rdm4k]

Id probably just Cbet /GII.

I'd too

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

thanks for all the different points of view. I don't personally think that 78o is an overly wide opening hand at a 7 handed table from the Hijack....blinds come around pretty quick 7 handed. it's not a value raise for sure, it's a preflop "bluff" just trying to just take down the blinds, or play a pot in position. Can't raise for value all the time, especially from the HiJack...but also, I probably shouldn't have said "Hijack" I should have said Cutoff as I was 4th to act (3 folds in front of me).

In the game, I ended up jamming over the top with no fold equity.

I felt pretty positive that he was bluffing, and in fact I had expected him to do so, (just not quite that big).

The reason I posted the hand, is that my plan didn't work out like I wanted, and even though I was pretty confident he didn't have much, I didn't have much to call with either, so it put me in a weird spot. What made it easier for me to call was figuring I had roughly 50% equity against most hands here, and that if I backed down in this pot I was likely to get run over by the table, but If I win this pot calling off with 8 high, the rest of the table will think twice about floating me or trying to bluff me...that was my thought at the time anyways.

Of course, he called my puny 10,000 re-raise and flipped over and was drawing to 3 outs and I doubled up.

weird hand...lots of different ways to play it I guess.

 

[Rldetheflop]

Irrelevant to the thread but he is drawing to 7 outs on the flop with the double gutshot and could pick up chop outs depending on the turn.

FWIW and its probably not much since I have very little live experience but I just open jam the flop.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

Do you even know your range from hijack? if you dont then how is supposed someone to make an analysis about your hand?

I'm not sure I understand this question. Do you mean do I know my own range? my own ranges are not fixed, but based on table dynamics, therefore always changing/adapting to stack sizes and circumstances. When you say how is someone supposed to make an analysis about my hand do you mean my opponents at the table, or do you mean the people reading this thread?

Irrelevant to the thread but he is drawing to 7 outs on the flop with the double gutshot and could pick up chop outs depending on the turn.

FWIW and its probably not much since I have very little live experience but I just open jam the flop.

yes, you are right, he has a double gutter. my mistake. so he has 7 outs and some runner runner chop outs.

I feel like if I open jam this flop, then I have reverse implied odds as I only get called when I am crushed by 2 pair or better, and I will need to hit my straight to win, but making it even worse, if he can call my flop shove, then most likely some of my straight outs are dead, so I am drawing to probably 6 or 7 outs the times I do get called.

The more I think about it, the more I think I should just Cbet the flop with the intention of getting it all in. But...the problem with that is if he just flats and I miss the turn...but I guess I'd just jam the turn no matter what...

 

[Tgen]

I'm not sure I understand this question. Do you mean do I know my own range? my own ranges are not fixed, but based on table dynamics, therefore always changing/adapting to stack sizes and circumstances. When you say how is someone supposed to make an analysis about my hand do you mean my opponents at the table, or do you mean the people reading this thread?

You dont watch a hand in isolation , how you will play it postflop varies depending on how you play the rest of your preflop range.

If for example my range generate a lot of good bluff combos or a lot showdown value hands in the specific flop then i might not need to bluff or continue as much with that straight draw , on the other hand if my range is too wide then its unlikely i have alot of combos worthy to bet or continue , therefore it might be mandatory to shove that straight draw or otherwise i will end up folding too much. ( this is just an example )

In your hand if you are capable to raise 78o then your range is assumed to be very wide , therefore its mandatory to shove that draw. Even with a tighter range it would still be a standar shove.

Even if you adapt you have to remember your range and know how to play each part of it in every flop.

 

[danprince10]

This is almost purely a math play at this point and without running the numbers is probably a fold. Just jam the flop when its your first turn to act. Maximize fold equity with the draw.

 

[MasterOfDisaster]

This is almost purely a math play at this point and without running the numbers is probably a fold. Just jam the flop when its your first turn to act. Maximize fold equity with the draw.

You gotta consider your stacksize

 

[duggs]

definitely wouldn't be opening any two given we have 20bb, and will have heaps of profitable jam spots and rejam spots. I'm min raising tho and just betting flop small and jamming all turns

 

[Rldetheflop]

definitely wouldn't be opening any two given we have 20bb, and will have heaps of profitable jam spots and rejam spots. I'm min raising tho and just betting flop small and jamming all turns

Well we are not that deep here. Antes are pretty steep so our adjusted BB is more like 12. Personally I think this strategy is exploitable the times we get jammed over on the flop. We then face a decision to call which would certainly be -EV or fold with a decent percentage of our stack already in which is equally bad or worse. Open shoving the flop is unexploitable. I understand that we are not in great shape when called but usually not horrible either and we will get enough folds(with her read on this villain) to make it profitable.

 

[duggs]

I know that we have antes in play, our stack is still 20bb, don't see how they can possibly exploit us, or any range where calling is -EV

 

[rdm4k]

Once y have opened this HJ con 87o (which is definitely OK, even more with given info) and flopped at the best: OESD + OC There is no other reason to do not GII as quick as y can.
As played flop (and as planned by OP) Villain bet the flop (even if he uses a size that's pretty a pain in the arse coz of the FE loss) and I (hero) woulndt be more happy to gamble this hand with such as good outs to the nutz- The actual situation sees Hero blinding out... do y really wanna still wait (peraphs when y may have less bb and less FE overall even to push an unopened to steal the blinds??)??

Sometimes when y short you might be taking a marginal spot to chip up. This is the nature of tournament poker. and math apart, those days y r not seeing any card blablabla, y must maximize the few playable spot (inda way I see the game, I'd rather take a risk then blind out and -maybe- see you premium, finally, and have it cracked by big stacks). This is the case.

 

[Rldetheflop]

I know that we have antes in play, our stack is still 20bb, don't see how they can possibly exploit us, or any range where calling is -EV

Perhaps I was hasty in using the phrase exploitable. After doing the math it is actually closer than I thought at a glance.

To me it seems you are blowing off the antes as insignificant and I think that is flawed. We cant sit there thinking I have 20BB so plenty of time. We need to be thinking I have 12BB time to get moving.

 

[duggs]

Perhaps I was hasty in using the phrase exploitable. After doing the math it is actually closer than I thought at a glance.

To me it seems you are blowing off the antes as insignificant and I think that is flawed. We cant sit there thinking I have 20BB so plenty of time. We need to be thinking I have 12BB time to get moving.

I'm not blowing it off, most tourney have antes, if we had 20bb And it was pre ante I would feel it was exceptional enough to point out. Antes are implied.

I think you are being very loose with your definition of exploitable

 

[duggs]

I'm also not going to make an unprofitable open just to make something happen

 

[Rldetheflop]

I'm not blowing it off, most tourney have antes, if we had 20bb And it was pre ante I would feel it was exceptional enough to point out. Antes are implied.

I think you are being very loose with your definition of exploitable

I agreed with that.

 

[duggs]

Explain why it would be anyway near exploitable and what you define exploitable as

 

[Rldetheflop]

I'm also not going to make an unprofitable open just to make something happen

I wasnt arguing that we arent quite to the point of opening any 2 only that we arent as deep as you suggest. But enough of the derail I guess.