his range vs my A2 he had 57% equity so he is slightly ahead.. but with all the pre flop folds he makes. does it make this decision a profitable one?
This is my first time using calculator so I could be way off.
or should I be doing this calculation vsing his calling range? how do I take into account fold equity?
I'll try to respond to all of these questions in one long post. Just remember....YOU asked for this! ...ha ha
OK, the type of calculation you are talking about is somewhat complicated but very worth doing, IMO. You could never really do this at the table but it's very beneficial to take tough spots like these back home and work out the minutiae of the hand and then keep the general lessons with you when you are at the table.
here we go. ya ready?
First, let's assume that your choice are between folding, or going all in. Number 1: because I think that is strategically best given your stack size, and Number 2: it makes the calculation way easier! BONUS!
So we need to find out which move is more profitable in the long run.
Well the cEV of folding is always 0. So that's easy. Now to determine if pushing is better or worse than 0
The cEV of jamming has a few separate calculations and some guesswork involved.
First most important thing to consider here is his button opening range. Now, his stats suggest he opens 20% of pots, but that's over all positions so he opens AT LEAST 20% on the button and probably MUCH MUCH wider. (most players do). Also, he has a big stack and a general tendency is for big stacks to begin raising EVEN MORE pots than their standard style would. You only have 100 hands on him which is not very helpful....it's something but it puts him almost in "unknown" territory. IMO, his stack size and position will do more for helping me determine his range here than his stats will. Whenever I'm trying to assign a range to a basically unknown player I start by assigning them my own range if I had that stack size, and then I adjust it from there based on what I've seen of that player. Typically I'll open about 30% of hands when it folds to my button, and a little more if I'm big stacked. Maybe up to 35% in this position.
Let's split the difference and assign him a 32% button opening range (which, by the way looks like this: 22+, A2+, any 2 broadway, K8s+, Q8s+, J8s+, suited connectors and suited 1 gappers 56s-J9s).
Now, we have to make another guesstimate and figure out his calling range. Given his stack size and your history I think he's calling pretty wide here, but there are some hands he'll probably fold. I'd just venture a guess that he'll call with 22+, A2+ any 2 broadway cards suited or unsuited.
That is a 27% calling range.
Calculating your Fold Equity
The difference between his opening range and his calling range is essentially your fold equity, but you have to calculate it.
out of the 32% hands he is raising, he is calling with 27%, in other words 84% of the time he'll call you (27/32=0.84). So basically 16% of the time he folds. So that is your Fold Equity, 16% of the chips already in the pot.
Pot contains 2,250x8= 18,000 +9,000 + 18,000= 45,000 + 36,000 = 81,000
81,000 x 0.16 = 12,960 is your fold equity.
Now, the other 84% of the time he will call. How does your hand fare against his range? This is where those range calculators come in real handy. Just plug it in.
According to my calculator you have 40% equity vs his calling range.
Calculating how many chips you win, on average when he calls
0.84 x 0.40 = 33.6 that is the percentage of the chips you'll win when you get called.
And how many chips is that? The size of the current pot plus the size of your raise 16.97bb-0.5BB posted = 16.47bbx18,000=296,500 + 81,000=377,500
377,500 x 0.336 = 126,826
Calculating how many chips you'll lose, on average when he calls
0.84 x 0.6 = 0.504 (he calls you 84% of the time and he wins 60% of the time he calls)
377,500 x 0.504= 190,260 chips you lose.
Final Calculation: Fold Equity + Win Equity - Loss = Total equity of the move.
12,960 + 126,826 = 139,786 (Fold Equity + Win Equity)
190,260-139,786 =cEV -50,474
on average you'll lose ~50,000 chips with this play. That is worse than folding. So folding is better.
Now, you can tweak the equation by either making his opening ranges wider, or his calling ranges narrower and find out where this becomes a profitable shove.
or you can tweak your hand strength vs. his opening and calling ranges and find out how strong of a hand you need to make this a profitable shove.
The point of playing with those numbers is not to delude yourself into thinking your play was correct, but rather to find out where the margins of profitability are at next time you find yourself in a similar situation.
Please also remember that cEV is not the same as $EV and the closer you are to the bubble the more ICM becomes a factor (meaning you need a stronger hand to risk your tourney life) the farther you are from the bubble the closer cEV and $EV are, but they are never exactly the same in any tournament.
