$1.75 NLHE STT Turbo: 16bb's, pocket sixes with mega-fish in BB

cjatud2012

cjatud2012

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BB is running a 70/5 over ~45 hands. Rest of the players left to act are pretty normal, VPIP's of ~15.

PokerStars - $1.50+$0.25|50/100 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BTN: 1,885.00
SB: 1,889.00
BB: 3,006.00
UTG: 980.00
UTG+1: 1,940.00
Hero (MP): 1,610.00
CO: 2,190.00

SB posts SB 50.00, BB posts BB 100.00

Pre Flop: (150.00) Hero has 6:club: 6:heart:

fold, fold, Hero ...
 
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Xavier

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Just fold.
Only raise on CO or BTN with that hand.
 
the lab man

the lab man

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Auto fold for me at your position
 
cjatud2012

cjatud2012

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Just fold.
Only raise on CO or BTN with that hand.

So you're still raising from the CO/BTN with the fish in the BB? At least to me I didn't think our position was really the determining factor in this hand.

More thoughts please? And try to explain a little why you'd make the move you choose.
 
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Xavier

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So you're still raising from the CO/BTN with the fish in the BB? At least to me I didn't think our position was really the determining factor in this hand.

More thoughts please? And try to explain a little why you'd make the move you choose.

The later our position the more attractive raising is because, the less chance someone will pick up a hand to call or reraise us, and the more chance we win the hand preflop uncontested , which is what we want.

I think position is more important than the nature of the BB.
If you raise and get called and overcards fall you're ina tough spot and you can easily end up spewing a big chunk of your stack by c betting into the pot.

I might fold the hand from CO sometimes but probably always raise from BTN.
 
ben_rhyno

ben_rhyno

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When you raise 2.5x you have a chance to take the blinds and also when you c-bet on the flop. You can fold if you're 3-bet pre and vs. any resistance on the flop. If you flop a set or something like 345 then you can just value town him
 
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Xavier

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When you raise 2.5x you have a chance to take the blinds and also when you c-bet on the flop. You can fold if you're 3-bet pre and vs. any resistance on the flop. If you flop a set or something like 345 then you can just value town him

I think even playing that hand if -ve from that position.
You're better off waiting for a better spot.
 
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WiZZiM

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The 150 chips we pick up "uncontested" preflop (which rarely happens here since we KNOW the BB is really loose) Isn't worth the times where we get called by 1-2 players and have to check/fold the flop a high majority. Or the times when we c-bet, get flat called and then have to give up. Add to that we have an implied odds type hand with 16BB's, it's a clear fold in any position.

Perhaps the button we might be able to open, but it has nothing to do with our hand. We would be opening knowing the BB is going to make a mistake by calling preflop, and hoping that he folds postflop too often (Guys like this, tend to be calling stations in my book, so this would be a horrible idea, but agaisnt some opponants it can be good)

Ben - think about the times when we actually hit those two flops you mention, they are about the only one's we like. Then think about how many flops do not hit us and work out which one happens more often. Think about how many times we pick up a few extra chips, and how often we lose a few chips. Which one do you think has a bigger impact, and which one do you think happens more frequently, given our knowledge of buyin level and this opponant.

Xavier - Our position is important, don't get me wrong. But it's not more important than knowledge of our opponants. Our hand is worthless right now, even on the button, we may as well be using napkins cards. So realistically, we would be going for an all out steal attempt vs a BB who is known to be very loose. It might actually have merit if we know the BB is going to call pre and fold a ton postflop, then it could actually be a good play, but again, it has nothing to do with the fact we are dealt pocket 6's.


OP - 16BB's, worthless hand, Loose BB, players to act behind who can do all sorts of dumb stuff, We can use our push/fold skill over opponants later in the game, it's an easy fold.
 
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baudib1

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Wiz - this is a clear shove from the SB, don't disregard that.
 
ben_rhyno

ben_rhyno

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How does the answer change then if we have 88?
 
ben_rhyno

ben_rhyno

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As usual, I may be wrong but 88 is too strong to just muck here imo, but I would even just raise the 66 anyways.
So, saying 88 is the same, what do we do with 99 and TT?
 
cjatud2012

cjatud2012

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As usual, I may be wrong but 88 is too strong to just muck here imo, but I would even just raise the 66 anyways.
So, saying 88 is the same, what do we do with 99 and TT?

You could probably start raising with 99, although I wonder how awful others would think it is to just open shove 99/TT? You're avoiding the whole post-flop mess against an idiot but you probably aren't losing out on much value, because your opponent has no concept of range, stack sizes, equity, etc.
 
ben_rhyno

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I'm thinking that too, But I'd be shoving it for value
 
cjatud2012

cjatud2012

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Yeah exactly. And also I think you could maybe shove 88, but it would be pretty borderline, still think it would go in the muck but shoving would probably be better than raising. Perhaps others would disagree, that's why I posted the hand in the first place lol :)
 
ben_rhyno

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Yeh it's right there on the borderline with 88. I know that i'm probably shoving, but Wiz will come in and show me some maths telling us how terrible it is lol
 
cjatud2012

cjatud2012

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Yeah, when we're shoving and we take it down pre-flop while that's a good result, it doesn't really boost our equity a whole ton, so I guess what it comes down to then is how do we fare value-wise against a BB calling range? Probably something around this, although he could be calling wider:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
3,544,469,280 trials (Exhaustive)
Hand |Pot equity |Wins |Ties
88|57.76% |2,033,173,500|28,075,920
A*, AA-22, KQ-JT, KJ-QT, K9s, Q9s|42.24% |1,483,219,860|28,075,920

So that is pretty decent for us, but the problem is now what to do with the three other players left to act between us and the BB. That's where it would be good to have better position, since obv there's less of a chance one of them is going to wind up with a monster. That fact may make this a fold instead of a shove. With 99+, our win odds go up 3-4% with each pair, but I'm not sure where the line is to say "x" equity is profitable, but less than "x" is not.

btw hand analysis is much more interesting than trying to write a report that's due in a couple of hours :D
 
ben_rhyno

ben_rhyno

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Lol so glad i graduated ;ast year and doing my masters now and don't start my report for ages, Chemistry FTW tho lol.

What is our equity when open shoving 66?
 
cjatud2012

cjatud2012

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~53% against that same range.

And Chemical Engineering here, ftw :D
 
ben_rhyno

ben_rhyno

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Oh nice, I got my 1.1 in BSc (Hons) in Chemistry last year from UCLan, and am doing my MRes now.

So, shoving 66 is profitable here?
 
cjatud2012

cjatud2012

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I'm not sure, we're barely a favorite against the BB's calling range, plus you've got three other calling ranges to worry about. And we're not even winning a tenth of our stack (looking at this fact in particular I'm not even sure now we should be so hell bent on trying to win the pot anyway). So I don't know, and I don't know where the cutoff would be, whether it's 88 or TT or what. I'd like to hear more opinions too before committing on way or the other.
 
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WiZZiM

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Wiz - this is a clear shove from the SB, don't disregard that.

Probably. But we could also do things like Limp and go him, should work out really well vs this type of opponant. Again, our hand matters very little in that situation.
 
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