$1 +20 SnG Right odds to call?

[arahel_jazz]

pokerstars Game #21419654267: Tournament #115876756, $1.00+$0.20 Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2008/10/23 0:21:42 ET
Table '115876756 1' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: arahel_jazz (3300 in chips)
Seat 2: pedinker (2050 in chips)
Seat 3: probogie (410 in chips)
Seat 4: KLava69 (1315 in chips)
Seat 5: MBSS (2445 in chips)
Seat 6: frogman40 (3100 in chips)
Seat 7: rdamico (1190 in chips)
Seat 8: ndn_ndn (2340 in chips)
rdamico: posts small blind 25
ndn_ndn: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to arahel_jazz [Qc Jc]
arahel_jazz: calls 50
pedinker: calls 50
probogie: folds
KLava69: folds
MBSS: calls 50
frogman40: calls 50
rdamico: calls 25
ndn_ndn: checks
*** FLOP *** [Ah Kc 3h]
rdamico: checks
ndn_ndn: bets 50
arahel_jazz: calls 50
pedinker: raises 150 to 200
MBSS: calls 200
frogman40: folds
rdamico: folds
ndn_ndn: calls 150
arahel_jazz: calls 150
*** TURN *** [Ah Kc 3h] 6♠
ndn_ndn: checks
arahel_jazz: checks
pedinker: bets 1800 and is all-in
MBSS: calls 1800
ndn_ndn: folds

So, right here, the pot is huge (4700) and I am getting over 3:1 to call for about 1/3 of my stack.

The 10 is the only outs (4) I think I have here to make the straight. I put at least one of the two on a pair of Aces.


arahel_jazz: folds <---- Yeah, I chickened out.

*** RIVER *** [Ah Kc 3h 6s] [Tc]
^^^^ Doesn't that just kill you sometimes!

*** SHOW DOWN ***
pedinker: shows [6d Ac] (two pair, Aces and Sixes)
MBSS: shows [Kh Jh] (a pair of Kings)
pedinker collected 4700 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 4700 | Rake 0
Board [Ah Kc 3h 6s Tc]
Seat 1: arahel_jazz folded on the Turn
Seat 2: pedinker showed [6d Ac] and won (4700) with two pair, Aces and Sixes
Seat 3: probogie folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: KLava69 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: MBSS showed [Kh Jh] and lost with a pair of Kings
Seat 6: frogman40 (button) folded on the Flop
Seat 7: rdamico (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 8: ndn_ndn (big blind) folded on the Turn

 

[KillerBoo]

Correct laydown. You were getting 3:1 on your money but will only hit around 9% of the times, not even 1 in 10. And if you are up against AT, then your outs are down to 3, roughly 6,5%. Sorry bout the %-age, but in sweden its more common to calculate in % than x:x.
To make matters een worse, one of the two enemies might be playing the same draw, in which case you pay 1800 only to split if you DO hit.
To sum it up: It was a orrect fold, not a very difficult one either I´d say. To call you need to win at least 25% of the times to reach break even. (Yes thats 1 in 4, not 1 in 3 as one might think)

 

[KillerBoo]

And to make you feel a bit better...
Since many (if not all??) poker sites uses a RNG that decides cards from response times, it´s not even sure that the T would have come if you HAD made the call, if you had taken a millisecond more or less time to think...

There, feel better?

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Umm fold preflop, fold flop, fold turn. This entire hand is spew of the highest order.

 

[josh_dei8]

Good lay down. I would rather being the one to make the push instead of the one calling off my chips.

 

[The Shrog]

I think on every street, a fold was in order...ESPECIALLY on the river. You are in no way priced in to call for a gutshot.

 

[robwhufc]

Bit concerned you have to ask the question re odds - it's not borderline, its a very simple decision to fold. You should really know what rough odds you have to hit flush, open ended, inside straights, full houses off the top of your head.

can't add any more to hand analysis that hasn't been said - it's a nice hand to be dealt, but you got it at wrong time and in wrong position so fold it. After that, you are certainly behind, and certain that you only have 4 outs, and one of those (the heart) will fill in a flush draw. Looking at the preflop action and the stack sizes of your opponents, you should be certain that you aren't going to see subsequent streets cheaply, so you HAVE to fold the turn.

Very easy decisions all the way through, i'd certainly suggest studying up a bit before you play again.

 

[dcor]

easily fold this....you are in level three in the tournament and I promise you that if you make it further into that tournament you will get your cards. I would say that you should never risk one third of your chips on a drawing hand.....although there are exceptions I do not think this is one of em....even if that straight draw had eight outs instead of four, I dont think its worth it...also keep in mind that if that if the river were a heart you'd still be up against a flush...so that actually narrows your outs from 4 to 3....I dont honestly think you should have even been in the game come the turn....I would have folded after I saw that flop. If that was the case you probably wouldnt have been wishy washy about it and probably not had to write this thread haha........

 

[arahel_jazz]

Thanks all. I haven't been playing as much as I used to....

Still took 3rd overall for a small proft.

 

[OneEyeLefty]

UTG with QJ soooooooooooted. You shouldn't have came into this pot this early in a tourney. Once, you made that mistake your open for all kinds of error's. Evaluate your starting hand requirements for early tournament play. FOLD more............

Lefty

 

[EvilGenius]

you made the right lay down. with only 3 outs, the odds of the 10 coming were pretty slim. looking at the result sometimes will kill you, but not as much as the long term profit you would have lost by making the call.