I Live Poker
Legend
Platinum Level
Because I'm not sure, and I'm not ignorant to judge things just by an impression I have.
Because I'm not sure, and I'm not ignorant to judge things just by an impression I have.
Rob Hobson
Legend
Loyaler
I can see that you are quite inspired to bear this kind of work. One way or another this will contribute a lot to develop your poker style. Congratulations.Hello everyone! For those who do not know me, I am Vitor Hugo and I am generally very controversial in my posts. During the time that I have participated in cardschat I have always raised very controversial and delicate issues, however my doubts about online poker have hindered my evolution as if I had a mental barrier.
It was then that I had this idea: Since yesterday I started recording my whole game, for study purposes and also for comparison with the real equity of the game (see if what happens at the online tables is really mathematical)
From this weekend I will start posting everything on my youtube channel showing the good and bad moments. Also some victories if poker allows, this will serve for the purposes of registration and also for comparison as I mentioned above in order to show what really happens.
Hug to everyone!
Last edited:
I Live Poker
Legend
Platinum Level
Thank you my dear! I'm glad you're following along! Have you seen the model above? I am proud to have made that decision. And it really is already helping me a lot and directly impacting my style and my decisions. Hugs my dear!
Rob Hobson
Legend
Loyaler
Thank you my dear! I'm glad you're following along! Have you seen the model above? I am proud to have made that decision. And it really is already helping me a lot and directly impacting my style and my decisions. Hugs my dear!
You're welcome, buddy! I have not seen it yet, for it's the first time I see this thread, but I'm gonna check it out.
All the best
I Live Poker
Legend
Platinum Level
it will be years of research. now my free time I rest playing poker IoI has already started the search, if you go back you can see it. Thank you!
Luvepoker
Lost in the twilight zone
Community Guide
but the way the equity performs on each street is not affected by the actions is simply mathematical, so I chose to calculate it separately. Then just cross in all ways, and also together as you said.
And also the amount of chips lost or won already shows that the hand went to show dawn, I have captures of all spots with equity.
you want to see an example that doesn't affect very simple: it says the hands that I played badly that I was behind and in the end I won, modesty aside the model was very good! and it will get better as the process progresses
Your correct and I know it but i just prefer this type of stat separated. Its OK in an overall statistic but can be interesting in flop and turn only statistic.
Its great to do that but to really dispel it would require over a million hands played and many players never get that far. It take a lot of hand to get variance out of the equation.
Some people like to decipher things and understand them more. I am one who does this as well. It can also be used to work on there game as well and what i have used information like this as well. I am thankful to just play poker and if I make money even better but for me its about the thrill of winning.
Exactly right. Poker should be about entertainment. But it is ok to go for the gold if someone wants to.
They may have doubts but playing poker should be just for fun. also what they are doing can be beneficial to there future play. I learned a lot doing something similar.
I Live Poker
Legend
Platinum Level
yes, now i understand what you mean.
A million hands is a very good margin to balance equity, who knows to infinity and beyond! joke man!
I have a lot of hands and I'm going to do this infinitely by the point you mentioned, I'm learning a lot.
Regarding entertainment I also agree, but for example if any kind of irregularity is discovered in the RNG or in the equity, how do you want them to not be able to go out randomly or there disclosing that it is completely random like live poker this has to be explicit.
another interesting question will be to compare the realization of equity between sites and RNGs
why is it really random that a presenter has similarities otherwise someone will be wrong
Luvepoker
Lost in the twilight zone
Community Guide
I do want them to be accurate and random but proving it one way or the other is not simple. I will never say the RNG is exactly perfect as shuffled cards. I dont think we can be that perfect but can it be good enough? I believe so. I have played a lot of live poker and have seen a lot of odd things as in online. Many people will point out what they see and feel is wrong about online but never look at other interesting thought about what happens live as they never played enough to allow it or just dont think about it. Lets take pocket aces. Thursday I for the 3rd time in playing poker was dealt pocket aces in back to back hands in my playing carrier. The 1st 2 time were within 3 weeks of each other in my local casino. 1st time online was this week after 17 years. I have lost 6 times in a row with pocket aces all in prefop. Happened live and not online. I lost twice in a poker series to one ousters in back to back hands on the river. Yes 97% favorite to win both time and the casino dealer put it out there. Then people will talk about how unreal things happen. Remember the wsop main event a few years back when they were 10 handed on the final table bubble. Pocket aces vs pocket King and pocket kings and someone folded pocket tens preflop. 4 top ten hands. Yes they happen online but they do happen live as well.
I Live Poker
Legend
Platinum Level
My friend the rhetoric is good, and weird situations do happen but live poker doesn't have to prove it's random it just is.
Sometimes it seems to me that you are trying to defend the sites, but don't worry, they guarantee that it's random, everything will be fine, I hope. Why waste all this time of my life studying and trying to live a golden dream at the expense of the propaganda that online poker is safe and random would be very upsetting and harmful to my life. I would feel very wronged and I guarantee many people would too. This is not a toy like games with dummy chips people put money into it. some work and take it out of their budget in hopes of making extra money. It's not my case, but as I have time I do this research for them.
I Live Poker
Legend
Platinum Level
What about being good enough? I could have sworn that after I started this research the deck is a little messy with me you know. but it must be just my impression, I must be worn out from using my mind so much I may be exaggerating my impressions
mushthebush
Rock Star
Bronze Level
Great study. I read through it and I like the angles from which you've looked at it. I never played live so can't compare it. But online poker seems quite fair. It's easy, for me included, to get upset and angry and throw blame left and right at everything that you can at times but taking real notes over a decent amount of hands and decent play turns out it's pretty random. I still believe that short stacks are sometimes pushed out of a tournament by some clients or it could just as well be lack of luck. I can't stop blaming what I can when I have Aces or whatever good, and I do indeed play a short stack tight game, and get taken out nearly always by the river card when called with junk by a big stack. It's annoying, but no one's fault. Whether I like it or not, I'm in for the game offered by some people and I will keep playing by their rules in the hope that I can continue to make a profit as I have done so far. Just as unfair it may seem at times, I've built bankrolls and never lost them. I take calculated risks and stick to my financial rules.
I've been banned and cheated out of my fair winnings by 2 clients, for no good reason and they got away with it. So, as far as I keep my fair winnings, I'm happy. For me, it worked out really well for a first year of playing poker after a very long pause, I've made under 1k and the long run proved that my losses were due to judgemental mistakes and real coolers and sometimes bad luck. But glad you took your time and effort to put the numbers down. Maybe something real good will come out of this, who knows? Well done!
I've been banned and cheated out of my fair winnings by 2 clients, for no good reason and they got away with it. So, as far as I keep my fair winnings, I'm happy. For me, it worked out really well for a first year of playing poker after a very long pause, I've made under 1k and the long run proved that my losses were due to judgemental mistakes and real coolers and sometimes bad luck. But glad you took your time and effort to put the numbers down. Maybe something real good will come out of this, who knows? Well done!
I Live Poker
Legend
Platinum Level
Thank you < but understand I'm not a loser, and I've invested very little online in the course of my life. And yes there are bizarre situations but not with the same proportion, then some will tell me but you play a lot less hands that's why you see less of these situations, but it doesn't matter because if the problem is volume if you play few hands you would have to see the I live so much less situations where it is behind and wins and situations where equity performs correctly is also proportionally expensive! people sometimes seem to me a bit naive about this comparison. definitely live the deck is tough for fish and you rarely see them at a final table
I Live Poker
Legend
Platinum Level
that's not how you make a face, you have doubts, you clarify, you don't run away from them. I disagree with you!
Luvepoker
Lost in the twilight zone
Community Guide
I see your point about my defending the sites but that's not what I am trying to do here. Many players say that this never happens other than online. Yes its defending them and things like that happens online as well. I see what your trying to do and i think its great and smart more. I like you really love the game. I consider myself as a student of the game and really work on being the best player I can be. I would agree if it were found out the sites were not safe and random it would be a devastating problem in ruining the dream of many players besides us. While I maybe a small stakes player online.... I do dream of doing more as well.
What about being good enough? I could have sworn that after I started this research the deck is a little messy with me you know. but it must be just my impression, I must be worn out from using my mind so much I may be exaggerating my impressions
As for good enough, I dont believe anything is perfect but at some point it is close enough to be ok. After 1 million hands played your should be dealt every pocket pair 4717 time. Lets say you get dealt aces 4713 time and kings and queens 4718 times each. While not perfect there will always bee variance is some way but if this was the statistics i would say its close enough. If i saw the results as 4300 hands of aces and 5000 of kings and queens i would be very concerned.
I Live Poker
Legend
Platinum Level
yes, and i respect you a lot you are very diplomatic and a person worth arguing with. But understand. I don't want to be biased nor do I want mistakes, on the contrary even because if there is incongruity it would be very annoying that there is no online poker but I simply have the impression that they are not really random but as if they were imitating randomness you know, as if was not genuine. I've given up a few times AA knowing I was going to lose because I had a bad beat in a previous hand vs AA and I gave up and I was really right. And there's also another pattern, you're close to the bubble, you get a sequence of premium hands and on the second or third you fall like a bubble in a spot that you can't escape. It's like a compensatory scheme almost like a Karma RNG. But that without these studies are just impressions.
ie 61,321 pairs of hands for 1M hands played
mushthebush
Rock Star
Bronze Level
Thank you < but understand I'm not a loser, and I've invested very little online in the course of my life. And yes there are bizarre situations but not with the same proportion, then some will tell me but you play a lot less hands that's why you see less of these situations, but it doesn't matter because if the problem is volume if you play few hands you would have to see the I live so much less situations where it is behind and wins and situations where equity performs correctly is also proportionally expensive! people sometimes seem to me a bit naive about this comparison. definitely live the deck is tough for fish and you rarely see them at a final table
Thanks for the reply. I can tell you're not a loser and you take it very seriously, and so do I. I take it as a profession not a hobby even though I can't yet call myself professional. I don't play for the pleasure of gambling but as an obsession to get hold of that edge in the hope that with time, I'll live happily from it. I personally play very tight and depending on how the field is I sometimes attack speculative hands. Fold button is my best friend, usually. I fold Aces and Kings when the board makes me to. So, volume balances the odds over time. If you were to play every hand or very loosely, then you realise quite quickly that you're doing something wrong. You get the occasional luck factor and win with trash but get upset when a pair of aces isn't gonna win against a low set. I get where frustration comes from. I'm still not good enough as my winnings are not impressive.
I totally agree with you on final tables. I've made many final tables being a constant short stack throughout and I more often than not get itm, when gamblers with early huge stacks get busted way ahead. However, my opinion and winnings are irrelevant still as I can only afford micro buy-ins, but at least I am confident as I go higher, my winnings will be proportional.
mushthebush
Rock Star
Bronze Level
that's not how you make a face, you have doubts, you clarify, you don't run away from them. I disagree with you!
I totally aggree with this too. Everyone has doubts at times and they are there to be solved not to give up and do something else. Each with his or her own resilience.
I Live Poker
Legend
Platinum Level
Thanks for the reply and interest.
I understand you and I'm also in the same boat as you.
So you like to navigate the tournaments respecting the tide, it's a choice.
I'm already different I prefer not to depend on the cards and I try to break the waves of the tide without worrying about losing with aces or any hand whatsoever. my intention is always to get the most out of each situation and find the point where I win with bluffs , when they think I have bluffs I win with value , and trying to balance my range in the most annoying way possible so that when I get to the final stretches I am big and ready to win. This increases the ROI my dear. But all styles can be profitable by playing and balancing the range the right way.
mushthebush
Rock Star
Bronze Level
Very true, no matter the style, bluffing is part of this game and it's an art that you have to master and apply smartly when the opportunity arises. After all, it's a tool that you can and should use whenever it turns out useful.
I Live Poker
Legend
Platinum Level
another question I would like to discuss
It would be very interesting if I had the support of people who managed to raise limits that soften this variance barrier or even profitable players who already play higher limits. To compare equities at different limits.
Well, I have other impressions about it.
Just speculations, even personal things from my mind, I've played some higher limits, like low low, mid, and a hight tournament. The question is, does the equity perform the same way there?
Because the few times I played it seemed much closer to the live and it's not because of the lower variance or because the players are better, in fact there you have even less opportunity to make mistakes and even then when you make a mistake the deck hardly helps you but that It's still pretty murky, I don't have much of an argument.
But my impressions are the following : it is as if the equity performed perfectly as it should at the highest level and as if on the micros it was a little distorted to give newbies chances , because imagine how boring it would be and for them and how many beginners the rooms would lose without even having the taste of winning a tournament. But if that were the case it should be specified. And you would play on the skewed equity margin as you saw fit. only impressions and speculations and guesses. don't be offended folks!
It would be very interesting if I had the support of people who managed to raise limits that soften this variance barrier or even profitable players who already play higher limits. To compare equities at different limits.
Well, I have other impressions about it.
Just speculations, even personal things from my mind, I've played some higher limits, like low low, mid, and a hight tournament. The question is, does the equity perform the same way there?
Because the few times I played it seemed much closer to the live and it's not because of the lower variance or because the players are better, in fact there you have even less opportunity to make mistakes and even then when you make a mistake the deck hardly helps you but that It's still pretty murky, I don't have much of an argument.
But my impressions are the following : it is as if the equity performed perfectly as it should at the highest level and as if on the micros it was a little distorted to give newbies chances , because imagine how boring it would be and for them and how many beginners the rooms would lose without even having the taste of winning a tournament. But if that were the case it should be specified. And you would play on the skewed equity margin as you saw fit. only impressions and speculations and guesses. don't be offended folks!
I Live Poker
Legend
Platinum Level
I apologize guys, but I noticed that the title and the initial purpose of this post has changed so it's a little strange for those who see it for the first time. I created the topic with the correct title
https://www.cardschat.com/forum/online-poker-73/study-rngs-equity-realization-501489/
I ask that if any mod could close this post for comments. I don't know if it is necessary to leave it open for the members who were following to see it?
https://www.cardschat.com/forum/online-poker-73/study-rngs-equity-realization-501489/
I ask that if any mod could close this post for comments. I don't know if it is necessary to leave it open for the members who were following to see it?
Last edited: