What are the odds?

[Dericor]

Hi everyone! I have a little question for the poker math guru. What is the chance that in the hand you get KK, your opponent is AA, the flop is KKA and A comes on the river ??? Today my friend had such a distribution and it would be interesting to know the chances of it. I calculated them myself as 1:55 227 900, which looks a little unrealistic. thanks in advance for your reply!

 

[Clean]

Hi everyone! I have a little question for the poker math guru. What is the chance that in the hand you get KK, your opponent is AA, the flop is KKA and A comes on the river ??? Today my friend had such a distribution and it would be interesting to know the chances of it. I calculated them myself as 1:55 227 900, which looks a little unrealistic. thanks in advance for your reply!

Never seen it, if that happens, the dealer is not shuffling the cards probably

 

[greenman]

Isn't online amazing . Get a tracker if your questioning online. Data doesn't lie.

 

[vinnie]

This question is difficult to answer, mostly because I am unsure what we are taking as given information.

• Are we assuming both players could have any hand?
• Are we assuming hero has KK and villain could have any hand? (In either of these cases we need to know how many people are dealt into the hand)
• Are we assuming hero has KK and villain has AA and they end up quads over quads?
• Are we assuming hero has KK and villain has AA and they end up quads over quads where KK gets quads first?
• Are we assuming hero has KK and villain has AA and the flop is KKA and we want the odds of another ace coming on either card?
• Are we assuming hero has KK and villain has AA and the flop is KKA and we want the odds of another ace coming exactly on the river?

Every one of these questions has a different answer. The way the question is phrased seems to be asking the last one. And, once we're past the flop, it's really not that unlikely (about a 2% chance or 44-1 against).

 

[PrinceJigger]

Hi everyone! I have a little question for the poker math guru. What is the chance that in the hand you get KK, your opponent is AA, the flop is KKA and A comes on the river ??? Today my friend had such a distribution and it would be interesting to know the chances of it. I calculated them myself as 1:55 227 900, which looks a little unrealistic. thanks in advance for your reply!

Was this heads-up?

If it's heads-up and you have KK, the probability of your opponent having AA is 6 in 1225.

The probability of the flop being KKA is 1 in 8 648.

The probability of the turn being a brick and the river being an A is 1 in 45.

Altogether, the odds are 1 in 79 453 500.

 

[Dericor]

Was this heads-up?

If it's heads-up and you have KK, the probability of your opponent having AA is 6 in 1225.

The probability of the flop being KKA is 1 in 8 648.

The probability of the turn being a brick and the river being an A is 1 in 45.

Altogether, the odds are 1 in 79 453 500.

Thanks for the answer. that was interesting

 

[Phoenix Wright]

Similar question. What are the odds for this scenario I just witnessed in an online tournament I played a few days ago?

There were 9 players (including me) at the table. I folded preflop (glad I did) and I watched some raising and reraising going on. Eventually, 3 players went to the flop. I was surprised to see the hole cards of the 3 players:

Player 1: AA
Player 2: KK
Player 3: KK

(The AA held up, but one of the KK hands almost made a flush)

Crazy stuff that happens in poker - I was glad I wasn't involved in that hand