J
jadestem
Enthusiast
Silver Level
You have to calculate the probability of villain not hitting one of his outs on each of the 5 cards that are to come and then multiply all of those probabilities together. I'll use AA vs TT as an example:
If you have AA and villain has TT, there are 48 unknown cards. The first card on the flop then has 46/48 chance of not being a T, the second card a 45/47 chance, the third card a 44/46 chance, the fourth card a 43/45 chance, and finally the fifth card a 42/44 chance. So to find the combined chance you multiply all of those together: (46/48)(45/47)(44/46)(43/45)(42/44) = 80% chance that villain does NOT hit a T. Therefore, there is a 20% chance that he DOES hit a T. The actual preflop odds varies slightly due to things like the possibility of an A and a T coming by the river, or neither coming but villain making a straight with his T etc.
If you have AA and villain has TT, there are 48 unknown cards. The first card on the flop then has 46/48 chance of not being a T, the second card a 45/47 chance, the third card a 44/46 chance, the fourth card a 43/45 chance, and finally the fifth card a 42/44 chance. So to find the combined chance you multiply all of those together: (46/48)(45/47)(44/46)(43/45)(42/44) = 80% chance that villain does NOT hit a T. Therefore, there is a 20% chance that he DOES hit a T. The actual preflop odds varies slightly due to things like the possibility of an A and a T coming by the river, or neither coming but villain making a straight with his T etc.
TheRealPage
Rock Star
Silver Level
odds to hit aren't the same as the one to win a hand.. it's not because you have 12% of chance of hitting a set or 35% of hitting a pair on the flop with 2 lives cards that it'll be your chances of winning the hand..
(sort of) bad thing about poker is that winning odds are calculated from negative stuff.. Like jadestem explained, it's a calculation of all possibilities of losing the hand that give you the possible winning result.. irconic a bit when you think about that!
BUT odds stay only an indicator.. until you need more then 1 card to win a hand, odds can show 99 to 1, but in reality it's 50-50 until show down.
-TRP-
(sort of) bad thing about poker is that winning odds are calculated from negative stuff.. Like jadestem explained, it's a calculation of all possibilities of losing the hand that give you the possible winning result.. irconic a bit when you think about that!
BUT odds stay only an indicator.. until you need more then 1 card to win a hand, odds can show 99 to 1, but in reality it's 50-50 until show down.
-TRP-
C
cheeeer
Visionary
Bronze Level
Yeah, I did it. But it's still not the same 20-23%.
46/48(pre-flop) or 42/44(river): it's still 4.2% or 4.6% to hit 2 outs. And 6% for 3 outs. Or to hit straight, flush, full house increases your chances to 14-19% more? But it's impossible to calculate chances for straight, flush, full house before flop.
Yeah, I thought so when started to play. But it's hard to remember it everytime.
J
jadestem
Enthusiast
Silver Level
You seem to have missed the part where I said you have to multiply the chances of not hitting a T for each of the five community cards. It's (46/48) x (45/47) x (44/46) x (43/45) x (42/44) to figure out the chance of a T not coming by the time the river is dealt. Plug that into a calculator and you should see that the answer is 0.80. This means there is an 80% chance that a T will not come after all of the cards are dealt. Which logically means there is a 20% chance that a T will come.
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C
cheeeer
Visionary
Bronze Level
Why should I do it? Or if open cards on the table would be 25 then it gives 100% to hit 1 of 2 outs?
J
jadestem
Enthusiast
Silver Level
I'm sorry, I would try to help more but I don't understand what you are trying to say here at all.
C
cheeeer
Visionary
Bronze Level
If I understood you, you meant that every new open card on the table (from flop to river) gives you 4%. So, 4%*5=20%.
But for me it's the same 4% for all card deck. Not another 4% for every new open card.
Sorry if I explained it not very good.
J
jadestem
Enthusiast
Silver Level
I guess I don't really know how to explain it any better. I did not say that each card is 4% and there are 5 cards so multiply 4%*5. I said that each board card has a different probability and to find the combined probability you have to multiply the individual probabilities. Continuing with the AA vs TT example:
The probability that the FIRST card on the board isn't a T is 46/48 = 0.9583 or 95.83%
The probability that the SECOND card on the board isn't a T is 45/47 = 0.9574 or 95.74%
To find out the probability that NEITHER of the first two cards are a T you have to multiply those together. So, 0.9583 * 0.9574 = 0.9174 or 91.74%
The probability that the THIRD card on the board isn't a T is 44/46 = 0.9565 or 95.65%
So to find the probability of NONE of the first three cards of being a T you have to multiply all three together. 0.9583 * 0.9574 * 0.9565 = 0.8776 or 87.76%
So on and so forth until you have figured out the chances for all five community cards...or however many cards you want to do the math for. If you wanted to calculate the odds of a T coming out if you were to deal 25 community cards, you should find that there is around a 78% chance. Not 100%.
If it still isn't clear, then maybe someone else can jump in. I've explained it the only way I know how. Good luck to you!
C
cheeeer
Visionary
Bronze Level
It looks I didn't understand you for the first time.
Thank you. I appreciate all your answers.I've explained it the only way I know how. Good luck to you!