This is the last of the fundamental concepts you need to have a good understanding of before delving into strategy.

On day 5 Collin will help you calculate pot odds and will explain expected value.

If you have not yet read Day 5 and watched the video for Day 5 - take a few minutes now to do that and then come back here to discuss it:

Understanding Pot Odds and Expected Value

How did you do on the quiz? Hopefully now you have a better understanding of these 2 concepts - but if you have questions you are in the right place to ask them! Collin and Katie will be checking this thread to answer them and discuss these topics further with you.

I have a better understanding of the equity, I know this was for pot odds, just mixed in the card odds aspect also.
I always use the 4-2 rule for card odds , need to add pot odds into the mix. Just need to get my brain to work faster when playing live to calculate the equity based on card odds .

This video seems spot-on for limit poker where someone can chase down a card with constant three-betting eliminating players with smaller bank-rolls. Being counterfeited always feels like getting sucker-punched..especially when a nice honey-pot was built and you have everyone right where you want them..to put them all-in...then the last card comes up and your two-pair, trips, small straight, boat...etc..becomes worthless as the last card makes someone else`s hand a small treasure.

Building a honey-pot with a nice trappy play feels nice when it works but very bad when it doesn`t..and it may take an hour or so before another opportunity can present itself. Knowing and using pot equity/EV so that you can winnow the weaker players into traps works successfully only so many times. Maximizing +EV is contingent on one`s bankroll...having the right numbers doesn`t mean you`re going to win but it does help to understand the fantastic odds the other person surmounted to beat you. Allied to this video is choosing which kinds of EV`s to bet into because if a big stack is going to put you all in you need the best numbers to survive (this works conversely when you`re the big stack working the table hard).

You guys are doing great - already on Day 5!

Finished Day #5.

An important concept that was analyzed very well in the course.

My answers:

i)Pot Odds: 930$/375$ = about 2.5/1

ii)Odds in percentages: about 29%

iii)Villain completes from the SB, so his range is pretty wide here. He checks the flop and bets 1/3 of the pot on the turn. He can have a mediocre made hand, like A6, K6, J6s, K9, some bottom pairs or underpairs, etc. He could have all Aces too, Broadways that haven't hit with the Q, hands like J8, 107s that give him a gutshot draw, plenty of random low-tier suited hands, and he wants to finish the hand and take the pot right here. His ~66% of the pot bet on the paired river is a bit tricky. He could have hit his random 9x hands. We need to win the pot at least 3 out of 10 times. I don't have a clear answer here to be honest. I think I would muck my hand.

Tomorrow with Day #6.

Nice one, railing!

Super useful video that I try to apply when figuring out when to call/bet. It helps make the outcome seem more rational and helps calm me down from tilt. I find that if I think about the implied odds Villain is giving me, I can make the appropriate lay down or call.

Really appreciate the walk through of comparing actual odds with implied odds. I do have a question about its practicality though. Besides the flush draw odds with four suited cards on the flop, how practical is it to calculate actual odds? I know CC has the chart with the outs and odds, but it’s a lot of numbers to memorize.

I'm positively surprised about the quality of this course. Sure, there's nothing ground breaking or new, but still it managed to create a 'Heureka Moment' for me.

That lousy unpaired A3o actually wins any 22-88 pocket pair on that particular board.

I recognize that this was a resource that did not use much because the speed of action and our willingness to always look at our assets sometimes prevented us from putting more chips in a play.


But the question that should be asked is: How big is the pot?

If you look at the size of the pot combined with the concept of pot odds, mainly in the middle and final stages of a tournament, it makes a lot of sense to call even with reasonable hands when in other situations the player would certainly be tighter.

Regarding the Expected Value concept, I believe that the villain's behavior should also be analyzed because, although it is cheap to ask for a flop call, but if the player is aggressive he can increase a lot to make the call and even having a reasonable expected value can compromise expectations growth within the game.

Good luck and lets move foward.

Glad to hear that Nafor, and thanks everyone!

Nate, we'll absolutely show you how to use this process in-game as the course progresses. It seems overwhelming at first to everyone, including us for sure. But don't worry, you will become very good at it with some study and practice

Pot odds are the basis of +EV moves. In tournaments though, especially when there is no re-entry or re-buy, stack sizes and leftover stack sizes have to be factored in the equation too, right?

Pot Odd, and EV, help a lot in tournaments, the bet amount if I'm going to call or fold.
In tournaments many times in certain situations I have completely ignored these concepts because many players bluff over the limit.

I thought about this key point for a long time.
Given the pot odds, do I have the necessary equity that I need against its range for a profitable call here with my hand?
I came to the conclusion that before that I did not understand the essence.
The range on the small blind is 35%.
For example: 22 +, A2s +, K3s +, Q6s +, J7s +, T7s +, 97s +, 87s, A4o +, K8o +, Q9o +, J9o +, T9o
equity A3 is 45%
Pot odds: 930/375 2.48: 1
Percent You Need to Win:100 / 3.48 = 28.7%
45%> 28.7%
Let's see what combinations beat us: 9-2 hands, 10 10-2, Q-2, JJ-2, KK-2, AA-1, 66-1
TOTAL: 12 hands that beat us.
Given that the stack is 6,000 chips, calling 375 chips is profitable. This is an easy call.

I found this lesson so much easier than the one on equity - and I try to use it at the tables because I can easily understand it and calculate it so much easier (if only approximate) in my head at the table either online or live. So once I get the hang of equity maybe my toolbox will be a lot fuller and work even better for me.

I have always been more of a tournament player than a cash player, but since joining CardsChat; and now with this amazing course teaching me even more new concepts, I am finding even my tournament play improving! Still playing micro, but with all the allinners, fish, maniacs and every other colour of player there in abundance, I find it an excellent training ground to hone my skills - Looking forward to tomorrow's lesson

Originally Posted by PsychoVas

Pot odds are the basis of +EV moves. In tournaments though, especially when there is no re-entry or re-buy, stack sizes and leftover stack sizes have to be factored in the equation too, right?

Great question -- generally no they don't. You only factor in stack sizes when considering ICM. From a pure pot odds perspective, you don't need to worry about leftover stacks / who covers who.

Originally Posted by ronn6583

I thought about this key point for a long time.
Given the pot odds, do I have the necessary equity that I need against its range for a profitable call here with my hand?
I came to the conclusion that before that I did not understand the essence.
The range on the small blind is 35%.
For example: 22 +, A2s +, K3s +, Q6s +, J7s +, T7s +, 97s +, 87s, A4o +, K8o +, Q9o +, J9o +, T9o
equity A3 is 45%
Pot odds: 930/375 2.48: 1
Percent You Need to Win:100 / 3.48 = 28.7%
45%> 28.7%
Let's see what combinations beat us: 9-2 hands, 10 10-2, Q-2, JJ-2, KK-2, AA-1, 66-1
TOTAL: 12 hands that beat us.
Given that the stack is 6,000 chips, calling 375 chips is profitable. This is an easy call.

Getting much better than 2:1 odds against a top 35% range, the call with A3 is definitely correct, nice work!

Another excellent course that I will have to read twice, thank you very much Collin.
Now you can learn a couple of new concepts, which will help me improve my game, but without a doubt I will have to read and watch the video a few more times, you always have to study, to keep improving and not forget what you have learned.

Pot Odds are very important in Live Games, but don't think for a moment that will work for online poker, not with 70% of the boards hitting an ace or a king by the river, and nearly 80% of the boards pairing, and you can bet your bottom dollar, if the board don't pair, there will be a straight, or a flush 80 to 90% of the time, even though, a Live Game, the board will only pair 43% of the time, and an Ace or a King will hit the board around 52% of the time. and most hands in NLH are usually won by a pair, but you won't see pairs winning most hands online. so leave the math and skill out. you have to go by gut feelings. and that's a sad truth. I just played on Global Poker and watched the board pair 6 hands in a row, the other day on America's Cardroom, it paired 7 times in row. it's almost comical, but one thing that's it's not" is Random"

Day 1 - Chapter 5

This was tough catching up so that I can move with the masses.

While I going through this I decided to play a .02 cent tourney on the side. I am pleased to report that I turned 2 cents into $4.40 ! I won - catch the final hand here:

https://www.boomplayer.com/33168211_1ECD0BAB95

It felt really good to have over 1, 000, 000 in chips in front of me.

Now on to the video response:

P1 - pot odds are 2.5 : 1. Hero has to bet $375 to a pot of $930 to
win $1305

P2 - Hero was to win 29% of the time to make it profitable to call.

P3 - Absolutely call. I have seen split pots in this situation more
than I care to remember. Even bluffs with and Ace trying to
represent a full house to get others to fold.

I enjoyed this chapter, especially as I won a tourney on the side while going through it!

I endorse this book. Hey, I am already a winning player on day 1 on chapter 5 - probably coincidental though. If I win again, I will let you guys know.

lol..lol...!!

This is one of the concepts I still have the hardest time to fully grasp. I still need to watch this lesson a few times I think to fluently be able to do this. That being said, Colin's process of explaining it has really helped me to understand it compared to previous courses I have taken.

You need to watch this video at least two time.
it's not simple to calculate the percentage .
i think next courses will help to include the concept of pot odds and EV in realtime play because you are not going to put a calculator next to you.
i think that will work better with practice.

If pot odds is greater than EV you should always call, unless near the bubble.

espected Value more knonw as Ev is everything for me in poker,poker is a strategy mental game but is very linked to probabilities,and the Ev allwais tell you iff you are in the wrong or right way,i dont care about the result off a hand or the result in 1 million hands for me is more important the EV bb/100 tham the real bb/100 iff i am in -2bb/100 but Ev sais 10bb/100 i will keep playing the same way.

A great video and chapter to easily get your head around pot odds and EV. Looking forward to how this develops as the 30 days go by to work it into everything that I will learn.

Thanks Guys, Great Job.

Damo

Thanks guys, and don't worry if this one is taking some time It's a tough concept at first, but you'll definitely understand it well with a little time and practice.

Hey!

Things are getting prettyyy serious!

I very much understood the pot odds concept and I am trying to understand the EV part, I even read the EV article in CC (link in the book) and got fascinated by the process of calculationg this "famous" Expected Value. But still, this is hard to apply to my game, need much more understanding and a lot of dedication. Will reevaluate once I finish the book

At least now I know how to calculate the EV of a river call or turn shove. I also refreshed my pot odd knowledge!

Thanks

gl gl gl

Originally Posted by karmakoumas

You need to watch this video at least two time.
it's not simple to calculate the percentage .
i think next courses will help to include the concept of pot odds and EV in realtime play because you are not going to put a calculator next to you.
i think that will work better with practice.

This is definitely one to come back to and watch again!

Originally Posted by Debi

This is definitely one to come back to and watch again!

hhhhhh perfect shot

i watched the video 3 times and finally understand the pourcentage.
Now before every bet i watch the stack the pot it make me feel more confortable in table.
i really feel my self upgrate from day to another.

I knew about pot odds and this fundamental stuff before, but I still enjoy hearing the refresher: this is quality content and I am glad to be a part of this course

Originally Posted by Collin Moshman

...It's a tough concept at first, but you'll definitely understand it well with a little time and practice.

...and by paying table tuition.

I'm playing the $2 Party Poker SNG's and transitioning into the $5 games..(double or nothing and PKO's mainly) and this section must be instinctive but there seems to be more "at play."

My question(s) concern a reference I made regarding Arrow and Nakumura and to a degree Prisoner's dilemma where "coalitions" seem to form relative to stacks and expected bet sizes from the chip leaders (card ranges are irrelevant to the chip leaders on the attack). I've noticed that some bets by the leaders are tailored to the aggression level of their intended victim. Of the spectrum of bet ranges initiated by the leaders can I:

1. Quantitatively assess the aggression factor of a target via bet sizing, number of times the target was engaged or not AND would this give a quantitative "read" on the leaders? When I see more than one larger chip stack falling into a certain "bet consensus" during early and mid game (assuming the larger stacks are taking odds and EV into account since they aren't winning by luck alone), can PT4 detect and validate this perception?

2. In the late game, it seems that smaller stacks are more willing to attack larger stacks as an ensemble especially when a weakness is perceived..ie. a large chip loss whatever the reason and card range reads seem more important to everyone again. I've put out larger bets against mid-range aggressive players with smaller stacks (regardless of pot odds and EV) just to entice more aggressive players to tangle with one another and wipe each other out.
Is this a valid trade-off?

I've been on the giving and receiving end of being a chip bully and seething victim in the above mentioned game structures. Are the above points valid or am I imagining things. If these points are valid then at what stake level, from low moving upwards, do these tactics become invalid?
In a few games, certain chip bullies would raise the blinds but only call mine and other times (especially after some aggressive re-raising and winning sporadic hands) the table would fold around to me...is everyone ignoring pot odds and EV or is it a coalition/emotional thing that is occurring where self-preservation has taken hold because of who was taken out and how?
When I've been knocked out of a game should I continue to observe it to see if there is any distinctive response to my absence? Other than being involved in a Replay game on Poker Stars is there any other way to record games (or find them on other sites) with cards exposed after I've been knocked out? I'm curious to see if there is any detectable transition in game play on the part of the remaining players relative to my being there and not everything else being equal.

Poly, game theory becomes much more important at the higher stakes, but can be applied lower too. We talk about it some in the context of unpredictability and agree with the points you're making here -- very useful topic in poker.

Thank you very much for the book, there are many things to learn, I did not make estimates of the pot odds. I will make a resolution to improve that point.


.

Pot odds took me some time to learn over my poker 'career'. Chapter/Day 5 provided a clear set of examples that helped me better understand. What I really liked were the three questions: Wrong Question / Better Question / Best Question. I have been asking the wrong question! Damn! Now I will do better.

It also came as a surprise that the EV from a decision is based on the long run profitability of the call/bet. This concept will take some review on my part, but I can see it having a much bigger impact on my poker bankroll going forward.

I am only on DAY 5, and this course is amazing.

Hello! Thanks for the lesson!

First of all, I would like to tell you my opinion regards to Hand 5-1 in ebook. I think I would not call that all-in. Answering the best question: "Do I have at least the 26% or so equity?" - my answer is: "No, I don't". If we imagine that Villain have any pair on flop and after that he shoves it means that we have just 6 outs and about 24% equity on both streets.

On the other hand we have a big stack much bigger than Villain has and we could call to see what his cards is. I think we could likely find a gutshot with 76s / 65s poket.

Frankly speaking I failed last quizz question whether to call or not. I just hurried up because had not enough time to end a lesson so didn't think about ranges and actions Villain made on preflop and so on. So I made a mistake and feel disappointed.

As for EV it seems like I understood almost nothing about EV except for what EV is I'll read the article about EV and hope I understand everything in future sections.

I have an EV question - i am going around in circles in my head on this.

If we have a $150 chip pot, and we calculate a scenario where we have $116EV in this pot when we bet $300.

Now I want to compare this EV for a $500 bet. My EV is better at $121EV now, but I had to invest $200 more to get there.

It doesn't feel like this is a good ROI. Yes, they are all positive numbers and they are all greater than 1/2 the pot, but something tells me there should be another way to assess this. I am thinking about a "delta EV per $ bet" value, but am i taking this too far?

Like I said, I am sort of chasing my tail - anyone have any thoughts?

Good luck, stay healthy and God bless.

I understand how to calculate the pot odds, but I do not use it in my game. I do not understand the right moment to use the concept of pot odds.
Are pot odds good for overbets? Does overbet mean to me, I need a strong hand, and I need coinflip to win, to make a call profitable?

Originally Posted by Showbizin

Hello! Thanks for the lesson!

First of all, I would like to tell you my opinion regards to Hand 5-1 in ebook. I think I would not call that all-in. Answering the best question: "Do I have at least the 26% or so equity?" - my answer is: "No, I don't". If we imagine that Villain have any pair on flop and after that he shoves it means that we have just 6 outs and about 24% equity on both streets.

On the other hand we have a big stack much bigger than Villain has and we could call to see what his cards is. I think we could likely find a gutshot with 76s / 65s poket.

Frankly speaking I failed last quizz question whether to call or not. I just hurried up because had not enough time to end a lesson so didn't think about ranges and actions Villain made on preflop and so on. So I made a mistake and feel disappointed.

As for EV it seems like I understood almost nothing about EV except for what EV is I'll read the article about EV and hope I understand everything in future sections.

The important thing is that you understand EV and the concepts. If you put your opponent on a different range and come to a different conclusion, that's good so long as you use the right process

Originally Posted by NWPatriot

I have an EV question - i am going around in circles in my head on this.

If we have a $150 chip pot, and we calculate a scenario where we have $116EV in this pot when we bet $300.

Now I want to compare this EV for a $500 bet. My EV is better at $121EV now, but I had to invest $200 more to get there.

It doesn't feel like this is a good ROI. Yes, they are all positive numbers and they are all greater than 1/2 the pot, but something tells me there should be another way to assess this. I am thinking about a "delta EV per $ bet" value, but am i taking this too far?

Like I said, I am sort of chasing my tail - anyone have any thoughts?

Good luck, stay healthy and God bless.

+EV doesn't mean best, it just means better than folding. Pick the highest EV option. As for which bet size works best, we need more info -- probability of our opponent folding to each, probability they call and we win or lose, what happens when raised, etc. So it's complicated to calculate EVs sometimes but you're asking the right questions!

Originally Posted by Coinuss

I understand how to calculate the pot odds, but I do not use it in my game. I do not understand the right moment to use the concept of pot odds.
Are pot odds good for overbets? Does overbet mean to me, I need a strong hand, and I need coinflip to win, to make a call profitable?

Good question -- you would generally not use the concept of pot odds for bet-sizing.

Originally Posted by Collin Moshman

Good question -- you would generally not use the concept of pot odds for bet-sizing.

Can you explain what you mean a little bit more? In order to calculate MDF or Alpha (required minimum fold rate) it all starts with the pot and the bet size. The MDF is all about the pot odds our opponent will be getting. Maybe it is just semantics.

Thanks

Hi Collin! I have one more question about pot odds.

Before I started the course I've read Roy Rounder's book "Poker Math Made Easy". It's told that we should count a chance to win using our outs and call every street using these chances.

Should we use this concept? If we should, will we discuss this concept more in future sections?

Thanks!

Originally Posted by NWPatriot

Can you explain what you mean a little bit more? In order to calculate MDF or Alpha (required minimum fold rate) it all starts with the pot and the bet size. The MDF is all about the pot odds our opponent will be getting. Maybe it is just semantics.

Thanks

MDF is some new for me. I'll read more about it. Thanks!

A very nice refresher for pot odds - put very clearly and makes a lot of sense (maybe I should start paying attention to these more...) I like the way the bluff spot is also translated to EV - something I hadn't considered in depth before. Although I guess it is a lot harder to estimate your EV from a bluff.

Originally Posted by NWPatriot

Can you explain what you mean a little bit more? In order to calculate MDF or Alpha (required minimum fold rate) it all starts with the pot and the bet size. The MDF is all about the pot odds our opponent will be getting. Maybe it is just semantics.

Thanks

Sorry NW, I'm not totally sure what these terms mean. It's true though that if you're using GTO principles, the pot odds you offer your opponent are important and that influences sizing. So depending on your ratio of value bets to bluffs, you're going to size differently and offer your opponent different pot odds. This is a more advanced concept we're happy to talk about in the future but is outside the scope of this first course!

Originally Posted by Showbizin

Hi Collin! I have one more question about pot odds.

Before I started the course I've read Roy Rounder's book "Poker Math Made Easy". It's told that we should count a chance to win using our outs and call every street using these chances.

Should we use this concept? If we should, will we discuss this concept more in future sections?

Thanks!

Yes Showbiz! We'll talk about this more in the Draw discussion coming up

Originally Posted by Collin Moshman

Sorry NW, I'm not totally sure what these terms mean. It's true though that if you're using GTO principles, the pot odds you offer your opponent are important and that influences sizing. So depending on your ratio of value bets to bluffs, you're going to size differently and offer your opponent different pot odds. This is a more advanced concept we're happy to talk about in the future but is outside the scope of this first course!

Thanks Collin. No need to reply here, but I do appreciate that you take the time to read and answer these posts. Nice work.

MDF is minimum defense frequency ( pot / (pot+bet) ) - if I make a bet, this is the minimum call frequency that our opponent needs to utilize to prevent us from having >0EV profit with 0% equity (bluffs).
Alpha or required minimum fold rate - ( bet / (pot+bet) - this is simply the opposite of the MDF value. If we make a bluff bet, our opponent needs to fold at least at this rate for us to have >0EV with our 0% equity.

To me, there is a flaw here, in that our goal should be an EV of at least half the pot, not just an EV>0, but this is probably a discussion for another time.

day 5 completed , not everyone can understand the Pot Odds And Expected Value , i m sure most play don t have a clue about it , but thnxs to this article and to this guide many will know about it and understand it , and even they will be able to improve their game

It seems important to me to take into account this information about the Pot odds in order to make a good decision and pay the bet; but it takes time and practice to master it.

Originally Posted by NWPatriot

Thanks Collin. No need to reply here, but I do appreciate that you take the time to read and answer these posts. Nice work.

MDF is minimum defense frequency ( pot / (pot+bet) ) - if I make a bet, this is the minimum call frequency that our opponent needs to utilize to prevent us from having >0EV profit with 0% equity (bluffs).
Alpha or required minimum fold rate - ( bet / (pot+bet) - this is simply the opposite of the MDF value. If we make a bluff bet, our opponent needs to fold at least at this rate for us to have >0EV with our 0% equity.

To me, there is a flaw here, in that our goal should be an EV of at least half the pot, not just an EV>0, but this is probably a discussion for another time.

Thanks for explaining these definitions NW. Both topics would be great ones for future content.

Very valuable chapter. I was playing poker and never was paying attention to pot odds. Now after finishing Day 5 I will carefully think about pot odds before betting.

nice one never tougt some day i will be reading all this information about poker and put some time into reading and watching video about this i like it very cool

Where the villains put a little hero calls and loses. Where the villains put a lot of hero folds. And where the hero decides that 2.48:1 is much better than 2:1 he calls and wins. All clear.

This is a concept that I need to improve and in this video I am learning more clearly how to calculate the pot odds. This is a tool that must be made with each hand.