Quick reference guide on calling when pot odds are good

DrazaFFT

DrazaFFT

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Yup think I posted awhile back about the modified rule of 4 and 2 anything above 8 subtract 1
i.e. 15 outs is 15 x 4 = 60 then subtract 7

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/learning-poker-57/rule-4-2-302941/post-3229963.html

If we had this conversation like year and a half ago i would be ready to bet that it's above 9, this way i have to say that everything i've learned or read slowly fading, its been more than a year since i played for real last time (cash) and even more since i read something or tried to discuss :(
 
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You need to calculate the odds for the turn and the river separately because they are 2 different happenings. Calculating them together will give false odds. Again it depends on how much is in the pot and the size of the stack of the all in bet. An all in bet of $500 to a $500 pot, unless you have the nuts is a fold. However an all in bet of $100 to a $700 pot gives you 8/1 to call (or fold)
 
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ph_il

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You need to calculate the odds for the turn and the river separately because they are 2 different happenings. Calculating them together will give false odds. Again it depends on how much is in the pot and the size of the stack of the all in bet. An all in bet of $500 to a $500 pot, unless you have the nuts is a fold. However an all in bet of $100 to a $700 pot gives you 8/1 to call (or fold)
My gosh. What do you not understand about it not being necessary when a player is all in? You are guaranteed to see both the turn and river, therefore, you don't need to calculate separately. The only way you won't be guaranteed​ to see either street in an all in situation, if you call, is if you plan on folding pre river... which would be really stupid.

Let's say you have 9 outs to the nut flush and a player is all in. If you call, you can either hit on the turn or river, so you calculate for hitting on either street and not separate. The odds of hitting on either turn or river is 1.86:1. If you calculate separately, it's 4.22:1 for the turn and 4.11:1 for river.

If the pot is giving you 3:1 odds in a situation where a player is all-in, (remember, you are GUARANTEED to see both turn and river if you call) then its a profitable call with 1.86:1 odds to hit on either street.

But, by doing it your way, you would be making a terrible fold since hitting on the turn is 4.22:1 and the pot is giving you 3:1. However, if it wasn't an all in situation, then you would be correct to calculate separately because you aren't guaranteed to see both streets.
 
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ph_il

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When all in on the flop its better to calculate odds of not hitting Turn or River then subtract from 100
That wasn't what I was asking and that's exactly how i do it.
 
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braveslice

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Great job. It could be improved by creating an method/formula to convert implied odds to extra outs.
 
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ph_il

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Great job. It could be improved by creating an method/formula to convert implied odds to extra outs.
Implied odds might be too situational for this, but there is a formula you can do to see how much value you'd have to extract to profit with implied odds.


(Odds of making hand)-(pot odds) = X

X * $Bet = value required.

So, let's say you have a flush draw and the bet is $10, giving you 3:1 pot odds on flop. The odds of hitting flush on turn is 4.2:1

(4.2:1)-(3:1) = 1.2:1
$10 x 1.2 = $12.

So, you would have extract at least $12+ from your opponent to make your Implied odds call profitable.
 
rari458

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Very nice graph to follow. I especially like how simple and easy it is to make for quicker decisions/finding things
 
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Abramo

I don't know how you can get 1 out. I'm intrigued, the lowest I can go is 2
 
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braveslice

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Implied odds might be too situational for this, but there is a formula you can do to see how much value you'd have to extract to profit with implied odds.


(Odds of making hand)-(pot odds) = X

X * $Bet = value required.

So, let's say you have a flush draw and the bet is $10, giving you 3:1 pot odds on flop. The odds of hitting flush on turn is 4.2:1

(4.2:1)-(3:1) = 1.2:1
$10 x 1.2 = $12.

So, you would have extract at least $12+ from your opponent to make your Implied odds call profitable.

Interesting, I didn't know about that, using ev you get:

EV=1/5.2*(30+X)-4.2/5.2*10 = 0 -> X= 12
 
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braveslice

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I don't know how you can get 1 out. I'm intrigued, the lowest I can go is 2

Yes was interesting problem, at least one: hero AA, villain 77, flop A77.
Edit: this is too, hero Ah9h, villain 4h5h, flop 6h7h8h
 
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Thanks for this. It's very clever, but what you are talking about is one out to WIN. The villain's cards are unknown and our hero, while flopping a boat, could still improve his hand with runner runner pairs between 8 and king (but lose). I know it seems ridiculous but that's 36 outs.
 
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braveslice

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Yes, it seems ridiculous, good you explained.
 
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ph_il

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Thanks for this. It's very clever, but what you are talking about is one out to WIN. The villain's cards are unknown and our hero, while flopping a boat, could still improve his hand with runner runner pairs between 8 and king (but lose). I know it seems ridiculous but that's 36 outs.
How is that 36 outs? Unless your opponent flopped quads vs your boat, they're either drawing to a better boat or quads, which is only 1-2 outs depending. They can only hit what they have in their hands and nothing else. So, if villain has 88, the board running 99-AA will be no help to villain.

As far as not knowing your opponents hand, that is true. Unless cards are flipped face up, there is no way of really knowing. You can definitely create a range of hands and shorten that range as the hand plays on, but most of the time-if its not blatantly obvious-you'll end up with a small range of possible hands. This is why if you're going to be playing draws, you need to play draws that'll be profitable for you if you hit and fold your other draws that aren't.
 
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This is soooo clever. Both heroes have flopped great hands, but both don't know that they are beaten. What we are is left with is 1 WINNING out, and loads of other outs to improve their hands (but still lose).
 
ThinkDiffrent

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When thinking about calling an opponents bet or raise, it is always interesting to know what your equity is.
This is done by counting your outs, calculating your odds and calculating your pot odds.
If your odds are higher than your pot odds, it is a good idea to call, so in the long run you will be winning money.
Now, one issue with this, is that it takes some time to make all these calculations (even when you're using the rule of four).
To make it faster, I have made some calculations and an overview that I find easier to use.
The only thing you still have to do, is counting your outs and seeing how big the opponent's bet or raise is according to the pot.

In the table below, the first column is the number of outs you have
Second column is the bet or raise size made by your opponent on the flop (counting with still 2 cards to come).
Third column is the bet or raise size made by your opponent on the river (counting with still 1 card to come).

If the betsize made is smaller than the number in the second or third column, you can call.

Example 1:
You have 6 outs (two overcards) and the opponent bets on the flop 1$ in a pot of 2$. This means 0.5 times the pot.
Looking in the table next to 6 outs, it says 0.46.
0.5 is not lower than 0.46, so you should fold.

Example 2:
Same as above, but the pot is 3$
This means 0.33 times the pot.
0.33 is lower than 0.46, so you should call.

Example 3:
You have have 15 outs on the flop (OESD + flush draw).
It doesn't matter how much the opponent bets, you are ahead, so you can call everything.

Example 4:
You have 4 outs (gutshot) on the turn. The opponent bets 1 dollar in a pot of 10 dollar. You can call here, even though on the long term, this is a break even point.
Code:
Number of outs    betsize on flop    betsize on turn

22                all                10.86
21                all                5.31
20                all                3.34
19                all                2.37
18                all                1.79
17                all                1.42
16                all                1.14
15                all                0.93
14                all                0.77
13                12.65              0.65
12                4.5                0.54
11                2.51               0.45
10                1.58               0.38
9                 1.16               0.32
8                 0.85               0.26
7                 0.62               0.21
6                 0.46               0.17
5                 0.34               0.13
4                 0.24               0.1
3                 0.16               0.07
2                 0.1                0.04
1                 0.04               0.02
If you find something that is not correct, or suggestions, please let me know.



please make it simpler
 
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This is soooo clever. I thank you for it. However the definition of 'outs' are the unseen cards that will complete or improve your hand. What we have here is a situation of the number of WINNING outs Our hero can improve his boat with any pair from 8s, 9s, 10s, Js, Qs, and Ks, - 36 outs(but still get stuffed). In the second he can improve with any 2 from 10, J, Q, or K of hearts - 6 outs, but again loses.
 
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Running Nose II

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This is so clever and well thought out. However what we have here is the number of WINNING outs. The definition I know of 'outs' are the unknown cards that will complete or improve your hand, Our hero can improve his boat with any pair from 8s, 9s, 10s, Js, Qs or Ks - 36 outs.
He can improve his flush with any 2 from 10, J, Q or K of hearts - 6 outs.
 
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