Pot odds vs equity when drawing.

[miku]

When we have our draws on the flop, for example flush draw, are the pot odds and equity really working together here?

For example, we have a nut flush draw, so most of the time we have 35% equity if we don't count As as outs. So we have to have approx. 1:2 pot odds to call this bet profitably.

But here we come to my question.

When we call the bet and get to the turn, do not hit and villain bets again, doesn't this turn bet have to be counted to our pot odds on the flop, because with our call we can see only one card for sure and we must sometimes call another bet to see the river.

I mean that because we can see only one card for sure with our call and have only approx. 19% to improve when going to the turn, should we really measure with these pot odds and equity for instant improving and if not, why?

So, is the draw really profitable if we just count the pot odds on the flop, or do we have to add (of course with making assumptions about the possible bet and sizing) the turn bet to the pot and measure our equity vs pot odds after this operation.

Pls tell me if I missed something.

 

[grumblbrumbl]

It is necessary to implement flash draw a heart. I usually put all-ins with FD. Let the God of random will always be on my side. Amen.

 

[Lorpugo]

Look for the rule of two and four. If you have 9 outs on the flop you have around 2x9=18% to get there on the turn and 4x9=36% to the river. So if villain bets twice 2/3 pot this is wrong call Except if you are deep stacks and villain is fish and wiill pay you raise on the river if you get there. This is implied odds.

 

[ph_il]

When we have our draws on the flop, for example flush draw, are the pot odds and equity really working together here?

For example, we have a nut flush draw, so most of the time we have 35% equity if we don't count As as outs. So we have to have approx. 1:2 pot odds to call this bet profitably.

But here we come to my question.

When we call the bet and get to the turn, do not hit and villain bets again, doesn't this turn bet have to be counted to our pot odds on the flop, because with our call we can see only one card for sure and we must sometimes call another bet to see the river.

I mean that because we can see only one card for sure with our call and have only approx. 19% to improve when going to the turn, should we really measure with these pot odds and equity for instant improving and if not, why?

So, is the draw really profitable if we just count the pot odds on the flop, or do we have to add (of course with making assumptions about the possible bet and sizing) the turn bet to the pot and measure our equity vs pot odds after this operation.

Pls tell me if I missed something.

This is a common error a lot of players make when using the rule of 2 and 4 when figuring out the odds of making a draw in relation to the pot odds. To put it simply:

• Use the rule of 2 if there is a possibility of a bet on a later street and you aren't guaranteed a river card.
• Use the rule of 4 if you are guaranteed to to the river. [No more betting on future streets.]
• You'll very rarely use the rule of 4 and will often use the rule of 2.

So, in your example above, there is the possibility of a bet on the turn-to-river if you call on the flop. While you do have a 35% chance to hit on the river, you have to calculate each draw individually because the bet size on the flop and on the turn can vary.

That's not to say that you can't make profitable calls using the rule of 2 on the flop-to-turn if you're getting improper pot odds. If effective stacks are deep, then you can use implied odds.

• Hand Odds - Pot Odds = Implied Odds
• Implied Odds * Bet = How much you need to extract from villain to break even.

So, if your implied odds are 2.5:1 [for example] after calling a bet of $15 on the flop, then 2.5 * $15 = $37.5 is the minimum amount you'll have to be able to extract from the villain to break even on the river if your draw hits.

Keep in mind that this only useful if the pot odds < hand odds. If pot odds > hand odds, then it's a profitable call.

 

[miku]

This is a common error a lot of players make when using the rule of 2 and 4 when figuring out the odds of making a draw in relation to the pot odds. To put it simply:

• Use the rule of 2 if there is a possibility of a bet on a later street and you aren't guaranteed a river card.
• Use the rule of 4 if you are guaranteed to to the river.

So, in your example above, there is the possibility of a bet on the turn-to-river if you call on the flop. While you do have a 35% chance to hit on the river, you have to calculate each draw individually because the bet size on the flop and on the turn can vary.

Thanks for your answer.

Can we also make some assumptions about the turn bet and then calculate our equity like so:

(To call(flop)+to call(turn))/(pot(flop)+bet(flop) +bet(turn))

Vs

Our equity in this hand

 

[ph_il]

Thanks for your answer.

Can we also make some assumptions about the turn bet and then calculate our equity like so:

(To call(flop)+to call(turn))/(pot(flop)+bet(flop) +bet(turn))

Vs

Our equity in this hand

Maybe if it's limit or pot limit and you know the max bet size a player could make, but with no limit, it's just impossible to account for a player is going to bet on future streets.

It could be possible, in a specific situation where you know if you call a flop bet, you're going to be calling a turn bet as well, you can get it in on the flop and guarantee yourself you'll see the river if villain calls. On top of having some fold equity, this could be more profitable than just calling. Especially if you know, based on effective stacks and pot size if you do call, you won't be getting proper odds or implied odds to call a bet on the turn, but you're too priced in to fold.

 

[Poker_Mike]

When we have our draws on the flop, for example flush draw, are the pot odds and equity really working together here?

For example, we have a nut flush draw, so most of the time we have 35% equity if we don't count As as outs. So we have to have approx. 1:2 pot odds to call this bet profitably.

But here we come to my question.

When we call the bet and get to the turn, do not hit and villain bets again, doesn't this turn bet have to be counted to our pot odds on the flop, because with our call we can see only one card for sure and we must sometimes call another bet to see the river.

I mean that because we can see only one card for sure with our call and have only approx. 19% to improve when going to the turn, should we really measure with these pot odds and equity for instant improving and if not, why?

So, is the draw really profitable if we just count the pot odds on the flop, or do we have to add (of course with making assumptions about the possible bet and sizing) the turn bet to the pot and measure our equity vs pot odds after this operation.

Pls tell me if I missed something.

If you are 19% on the turn then you can only call a 1/5 pot bet or smaller from your opponent for correct pot odds. OF course, this assumes that your opponent has a hand that beats yours.

You are always getting correct pot odds if you put your opponent on nothing.....lol

Good luck !

 

[Poker_Mike]

If you are 19% on the turn then you can only call a 1/5 pot bet or smaller from your opponent for correct pot odds. OF course, this assumes that your opponent has a hand that beats yours.

You are always getting correct pot odds if you put your opponent on nothing.....lol

Good luck !

Correction - opponent needs to bet 25% of pot or less. then you will be getting 5:1 pot odds.