Pot Odds, Drawing Equity & +EV call?

[Albsoncards]

Hey Everyone!

New on Cardschat, and a bit confused, not sure if this is the right place for this question, but here we go.

Excuse my ignorance on this one but I am very confused with a topic and quite new to the poker world. I have been studying poker for a bit now, and I went through pot odds, implied odds, + & -EV calls, Drawing equity...etc. I am now not sure anymore how should I use the rule of 2 and 4 as I have noticed that people use it differently. Let me explain my self with an example below:

Let's say that we have AhKh and flops come 7h4h2c. We have 9 outs to complete the flush. Villain bets 75$ into 100$ pot. In this scenario we have 7:3 pot odds, or 30%.

Now, here some people says that in order to make a profitable call, you multiply by 4 the outs we have to complete our flush to know if it is a +ev call, but other people say that you should do it by street. I.e. multiplying by 2. So for some people here multiplying 2x9 = 18% we would be making -EV call as pot odds are 30%, but others claim that you should multiply by 4 and this would be a +EV call.

I think from a mathematical point of view, it simply makes sense that we should calculate this by street, i.e. 18% flop to turn, 18% turn to river, or multiplying by 4 (36%) in case we know villain will check the turn, or we going all in on the flop.

What do you guys think?

Thanks in advance

 

[LaNimmer]

Maybe I misunderstood as well. But I thought that the rule of four is used preflop and the rule of two is used on the turn and on the river? I would love an answer on this as well.

 

[ph_il]

use the rule of 2 if future betting is a possibility. so, if villain can bet the turn, you would use outs x 2 because you aren't guaranteed to see a river.

use rule of 4 if there is no more bets possible after the flop and you're guaranteed to see the river card.

note: rule of 4 only applies from the flop, to see the turn and river. other wise, you would use the rule of 2 to see the flop to turn, and turn to river.

 

[eetenor]

Hey Everyone!

New on Cardschat, and a bit confused, not sure if this is the right place for this question, but here we go.

Excuse my ignorance on this one but I am very confused with a topic and quite new to the poker world. I have been studying poker for a bit now, and I went through pot odds, implied odds, + & -EV calls, Drawing equity...etc. I am now not sure anymore how should I use the rule of 2 and 4 as I have noticed that people use it differently. Let me explain my self with an example below:

Let's say that we have AhKh and flops come 7h4h2c. We have 9 outs to complete the flush. Villain bets 75$ into 100$ pot. In this scenario we have 7:3 pot odds, or 30%.

Now, here some people says that in order to make a profitable call, you multiply by 4 the outs we have to complete our flush to know if it is a +ev call, but other people say that you should do it by street. I.e. multiplying by 2. So for some people here multiplying 2x9 = 18% we would be making -EV call as pot odds are 30%, but others claim that you should multiply by 4 and this would be a +EV call.

I think from a mathematical point of view, it simply makes sense that we should calculate this by street, i.e. 18% flop to turn, 18% turn to river, or multiplying by 4 (36%) in case we know villain will check the turn, or we going all in on the flop.

What do you guys think?

Thanks in advance

The rule of 4 applies to your odds on the flop if you will intend to play to the river so you anticipate calling turn

In the above situation we may have more outs than just the flush draw as many as 6 more outs are possible and we also may have the best hand so most likely we would play to the river so using the rule of 4 would be standard

This would change if we did not have the nut flush draw or overs

 

[dannystanks]

If you get too confused just remember if you flop a flush draw you will get the flush by the river 25 ish% of the time. So math wise you need min 4-1.

 

[Goggelheimer]

Hey Everyone!

New on Cardschat, and a bit confused, not sure if this is the right place for this question, but here we go.

Excuse my ignorance on this one but I am very confused with a topic and quite new to the poker world. I have been studying poker for a bit now, and I went through pot odds, implied odds, + & -EV calls, Drawing equity...etc. I am now not sure anymore how should I use the rule of 2 and 4 as I have noticed that people use it differently. Let me explain my self with an example below:

Let's say that we have AhKh and flops come 7h4h2c. We have 9 outs to complete the flush. Villain bets 75$ into 100$ pot. In this scenario we have 7:3 pot odds, or 30%.

Now, here some people says that in order to make a profitable call, you multiply by 4 the outs we have to complete our flush to know if it is a +ev call, but other people say that you should do it by street. I.e. multiplying by 2. So for some people here multiplying 2x9 = 18% we would be making -EV call as pot odds are 30%, but others claim that you should multiply by 4 and this would be a +EV call.

I think from a mathematical point of view, it simply makes sense that we should calculate this by street, i.e. 18% flop to turn, 18% turn to river, or multiplying by 4 (36%) in case we know villain will check the turn, or we going all in on the flop.

What do you guys think?

Thanks in advance

You have more out's. Don't overlook your AK. Your flushdaw may not be the only option to win the hand. So you have 6 outs more. You don't know if you are way behind with your hand. If your villain worked on set mining, and he hit his set, only your flush will be ok if the board does not pair.
Just don't see your flushdraw as the only option.

 

[Ace of Spad3s]

It's how ph_il explained it. x2 per street and x4 only when there won't be a betting round at the turn or when you know villlains betsizing on the turn up front. So this is basicly never, only with an extremely predictable villain you have loads of info on.

You can use it to calculate your odds of making it by the river, sure. But you can't use it to justify calling a flop raise because you have no clue about the action to come on the turn. Since you can't anticipate that, you can only use it to find equity on one street.

 

[ph_il]

You have more out's. Don't overlook your AK. Your flushdaw may not be the only option to win the hand. So you have 6 outs more. You don't know if you are way behind with your hand. If your villain worked on set mining, and he hit his set, only your flush will be ok if the board does not pair.
Just don't see your flushdraw as the only option.

I would be careful about counting these overcard outs. as you said, you don't know if you're way behind and hitting your a/k could cost you your stack. you even mentioned that, if they have a set, you would need to hit a flush to take the lead, which means you over counted your outs and possibly made a -ev call.

for that reason, it's better to count your outs that'll give you the better hand over your opponents, if you hit. in this case, the nut flush. not only does this ensure you're actually making +ev decisions, you don't run the risk over playing your hand if you're way behind.

this doesn't mean hitting an a/k isn't good, but it doesn't mean you take the lead in the hand either. it does mean you can likely get to showdown and have the best hand, depending on the action your opponent is giving and if you think a 1 pair hand is best if facing a lot of aggression. it'll be more pot controlling on your end as you don't know where you are in the hand, compared to knowing you have best hand with a nut flush on a non-paired board.

so, a/k does give you a bit more outs, but it's not the same. count your nut hand outs and use your extra outs as means to get to showdown.

an exception would be if spr is low and you would commit your stack with tptk, then you could count all 16 outs.

 

[Goggelheimer]

I would be careful about counting these overcard outs. as you said, you don't know if you're way behind and hitting your a/k could cost you your stack. you even mentioned that, if they have a set, you would need to hit a flush to take the lead, which means you over counted your outs and possibly made a -ev call.

for that reason, it's better to count your outs that'll give you the better hand over your opponents, if you hit. in this case, the nut flush. not only does this ensure you're actually making +ev decisions, you don't run the risk over playing your hand if you're way behind.

this doesn't mean hitting an a/k isn't good, but it doesn't mean you take the lead in the hand either. it does mean you can likely get to showdown and have the best hand, depending on the action your opponent is giving and if you think a 1 pair hand is best if facing a lot of aggression. it'll be more pot controlling on your end as you don't know where you are in the hand, compared to knowing you have best hand with a nut flush on a non-paired board.

so, a/k does give you a bit more outs, but it's not the same. count your nut hand outs and use your extra outs as means to get to showdown.

an exception would be if spr is low and you would commit your stack with tptk, then you could count all 16 outs.

Would you give up AK suited on that flop or play your draw aggressive (raise) or passive(call)?
Aggression may be an option here, with 15 outs.

You don't know what you are, way ahead or way behind.

You may be way ahead with A high best kicker, and villain just makes a very expensive semibluff, or he even has AK/AQ/AJ or any other AX combo.
It's as always in poker, the given example is with incomplete information, no positions, no preflop betting, no info cash or tournament.
The -EV call is avoidable by not only calling and playing passive pot control and also playing an aggressive semi bluff.

So anything can be.

For this incomplete information, I count all outs, regardless whether they are good or bad.
SPR is a bit more for tournaments, but with no information on limits or cash or tournament, it is all more or less without sense, or only theoretical to discuss further. In theory, you have 15 outs.

 

[Albsoncards]

Thanks everybody for your insights and knowledge, much appreciate it

 

[Samweis3]

Rule of 4 can always be used after the flop, if either villain or yourself is all-in, means no betting is possible anymore and the pot you could win is defined until showdown.

I am still thinking about the amount of outs here. As we should put the villain on a range which includes sets, but also Ax and maybe some suited connectors, should we count all A and K as a out or should we for example say in 50% of the cases hitting A or K shall bring us the nuts and therefor add 3 outs to the calculation? Looking forward on comments about that!

 

[eetenor]

Rule of 4 can always be used after the flop, if either villain or yourself is all-in, means no betting is possible anymore and the pot you could win is defined until showdown.

I am still thinking about the amount of outs here. As we should put the villain on a range which includes sets, but also Ax and maybe some suited connectors, should we count all A and K as a out or should we for example say in 50% of the cases hitting A or K shall bring us the nuts and therefor add 3 outs to the calculation? Looking forward on comments about that!

This is where Equilab the free program can really help all of us leap forward in our understanding of how much equity we have vs range well beyond we have x draw or x draw plus 50% of other outs

You can also use the free version of GTO Wizard you get one free post flop hand a day- If you were to input this hand G-Wiz gives you the equity of the call vs range

By using G-Wiz first then changing the GTO range to an exploit estimated range for Villain and putting that range into Equilab you can further dive into what your equity is on the flop vs a nonGTO Villain.