I what to add something to the 2 and 4 rule

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BrainMasher1

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Hello all,

I have posted this is the 30 day course odds part, but i think it's important info, so i made this post for it.

Many websites explains the 2 and 4 rule.
But i never see a website that adds the following, witch seems pretty important when you have allot of outs.
If you have more that 8 outs and you use the 4x part of the rule you need to subtract the number of outs above 8 from you answer.
Lets say you have 20 outs, when using the 4x rule that would mean you have a 80% change. Witch is not correct, you only have a 67.53% change of hitting you're outs.

But when you do this: 4x20 = 80 - 12(the number of outs above 8)= 68% witch is so close to the real % of hitting that u can use it, but you can't use 80% when you only have 67.53%​


What are your thoughts on this ?​



Greetings​

 
Nafor

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I do remember reading something like this from somewhere, so you are probably on the right track. But having a Swiss cheese as a brain :marchmell I can't recall where I came across with this information.
 
ObbleeXY

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Welcome to Cards Chat!


Its a good question...but really, you should not be posting a new question inside another person's thread. You need to start a new thread for that.

In this case, however, there are indeed a number of threads asking a very similar question to yours. It would be great to have your opinion, thoughts and assessments in one of those threads.

Cheers,
JT
 
Tigroslav

Tigroslav

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My info says 67,56% whos got the 0,03 wrong?

eedit: you need 0,48:1 pot odds to call
 
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blef121

blef121

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Is your win the best?

My maximum win in poker was $1,000 in a simple tournament, but what about you?
 
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alien666dj

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In most cases, this rule hindered me than helped.
 
barbados

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It seems to me that these figures have nothing to do with Lady Luck. Poker is more psychology than calculation. Explaining psychology with the help of mathematics is a thankless thing.
 
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BrainMasher1

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It seems to me that these figures have nothing to do with Lady Luck. Poker is more psychology than calculation. Explaining psychology with the help of mathematics is a thankless thing.


Sorry don't really know what you whant to say here.
Do you mean you never calculate you odds?
 
barbados

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Sorry don't really know what you whant to say here.
Do you mean you never calculate you odds?
I'm weighing the odds roughly. But this is not calculation, but divination. Even the probability theory of higher mathematics only assumes. But it does not guarantee that it will take place.:cool:
 
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BrainMasher1

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I'm weighing the odds roughly. But this is not calculation, but divination. Even the probability theory of higher mathematics only assumes. But it does not guarantee that it will take place.:cool:

Thanks for the reply.
I do understand that it are odd and that there is no guarantee you will win.
If the odds say you should win it 80% of the time, then still you can lose the hand 1.000.000 times in a row.
But as I understand odds, you calculate to see if you can profitable call ore not.
 
Phoenix Wright

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This sounds logical, but I don't know for sure. Hardly ever will I have more than 20 outs :D (or maybe I do and just don't count them :D )

Anything with that many outs makes me somewhat skeptical about the accuracy of our perceived ranges or the thread of reverse odds. Maybe your addition to the Rule of 2 and 4 helps address this, but I'm by no means a math wizard with these things as I simply estimate and play off of intuition more anyway. Post-game I might review the hand and then dive into math-specifics, but mid-hand, I'm seldom calculating more than just basics like outs and pot odds estimates. ;)
 
barbados

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Thanks for the reply.
I do understand that it are odd and that there is no guarantee you will win.
If the odds say you should win it 80% of the time, then still you can lose the hand 1.000.000 times in a row.
But as I understand odds, you calculate to see if you can profitable call ore not.


It may seem strange, but when I start mathematically calculating the coefficients, I lose very quickly. In my opinion, one should not blindly believe mathematics. But you should pay attention to the combination of different factors at different times of the game. This is the reaction of the opponents, their style of play, take into account the experience of past hands with them. And compare it with your tactics and strategies. Pure psychology.
 
frnandoh

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80% is the probablity to hit your outs (actually 85,6%), but in calculators is shown other percentage because the interactivity between your outs and the outs of villain. The next street can change all percentages, all in all, in the flop we have 45 cards left in the deck with showdown and 47 withou it, if you have 20 outs, your opponent have 25. Some times some of their outs can let him nuts and your outs could be dominated.
 
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LetterRip

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This is a well known adjustment to the rule of 2 and 4. I'd be surprised if most sites that mention it don't include the adjustment, though a quick google search shows that many don't,

Here is one that does though,

For hands on the flop with a number of outs greater than 8, the above shortcut will be slightly off; therefore, a more accurate hack is as follows:

Equity = (Number of Outs x 4) – (Number of outs – 8)

https://www.consciouspoker.com/blog/how-to-calculate-poker-pot-odds/
 
Matt_Burns88

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This is a well known rule, but often overlooked in favour of simplicity. Poker is not a simple game and trying to make it so can often be more detrimental than never learning the concept in the first place.
 
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BrainMasher1

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This sounds logical, but I don't know for sure. Hardly ever will I have more than 20 outs :D (or maybe I do and just don't count them :D )

Anything with that many outs makes me somewhat skeptical about the accuracy of our perceived ranges or the thread of reverse odds. Maybe your addition to the Rule of 2 and 4 helps address this, but I'm by no means a math wizard with these things as I simply estimate and play off of intuition more anyway. Post-game I might review the hand and then dive into math-specifics, but mid-hand, I'm seldom calculating more than just basics like outs and pot odds estimates. ;)

Thanks for the reply.
Your right you almost never have 20 out. But as stated in the OP this works if you have more then 8 outs and you ore your opponent is all-in.
9 outs =35%, but 9x4= 36 so 9x4-1= 35
10 outs = 38.4% 10x4= 40 so 10x4-2= 38
11 outs = 41.7% 11x4= 44 so 11x4-3= 41
12 outs = 45% 12x4= 48 so 12x4-4= 44
13 outs = 48.1% 13x4= 52 so 13x4-5= 47
14 outs = 51.2% 14x4= 56 so 14x4-6= 50
And so on, so your answer is match closer to the real % you have.
The reason I used 20 as a example is that the more outs above 8 you get the higher % is that you are off.



It may seem strange, but when I start mathematically calculating the coefficients, I lose very quickly. In my opinion, one should not blindly believe mathematics. But you should pay attention to the combination of different factors at different times of the game. This is the reaction of the opponents, their style of play, take into account the experience of past hands with them. And compare it with your tactics and strategies. Pure psychology.
Thanks for the reply.
I fully agree with not blindly flowing you mathematics.


80% is the probablity to hit your outs (actually 85,6%), but in calculators is shown other percentage because the interactivity between your outs and the outs of villain. The next street can change all percentages, all in all, in the flop we have 45 cards left in the deck with showdown and 47 withou it, if you have 20 outs, your opponent have 25. Some times some of their outs can let him nuts and your outs could be dominated.

Thanks for the reply.
I understand that the next street will change your %.
But you only use the 4x part on the flop when your all-in or you opponent is all-in on the flop, so there are no more calculation after that.



This is a well known adjustment to the rule of 2 and 4. I'd be surprised if most sites that mention it don't include the adjustment, though a quick google search shows that many don't,

Here is one that does though,

https://www.consciouspoker.com/blog/how-to-calculate-poker-pot-odds/
Thanks for the reply.
Till your post I personally never saw a site that has this added. Thanks for sharing it.
Its the reason I made this post, as it is also not in the course.




This is a well known rule, but often overlooked in favour of simplicity. Poker is not a simple game and trying to make it so can often be more detrimental than never learning the concept in the first place.

Thanks for the reply.
Its the reason I made this post, as it is also not in the course.
 
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