N
Nutcracker69
Visionary
Silver Level
/\ all day this!
Does the story make sense? When it doesn't factor in how often your "guess" has to be correct to profitable to call.
Problem is, when you play the reverse and make a strong story play... let's say two kings on the flop and you had called a decent open preflop, you figure out how you would play it. Against an aggressive player, you would not start strong, you would finish strong. Seems like when I do have it, I get paid off, and when I don't have it I'm called by ridiculous nonsense.
N
Nutcracker69
Visionary
Silver Level
I've played a lot of poker, but never against a fetus. Unless it happened online, which I suppose I would never really know about.
vinnie
Legend
Silver Level
Wow, a lot of players here think bet-sizing (particularly on the river) is a good way to tell if a bet is a bluff. This might explain my great success with over-betting the pot with the nuts on the end, since so many people here think big bets mean weakness. I am sizing my bets, on the end, based on many things but a lot of it is based on my perception of the strength of your hand. If I expect you to call, and expect to have the better hand, I am betting larger because I want more money when you call. If I suspect you have a weak hand, one that can't call a large bet, I bet smaller to get a call and make money that way.
Now, when I am bluffing on the end, the same rules apply. If you are probably weak (or your range is highly polarized to air or the nuts), I size my bluffs smaller. I can save money when I get raised or called, but I still expect to win. When your range is strong, but likely to have gotten worse as the board came out (turn and river hurt your range), I am likely to bluff more on the large side, because I expect you to find a way to justify paying me off with a good hand. Actually, I often will pass on these spots unless I know you can fold there, because most micro players find a way to justify calling even large bets.
I think, for many players, bet sizing is not a good way to detect bluffs. Many players bet large because they have a big hand. They're not thinking about what you have, they're not thinking of bluffing. They're just thinking that they have a straight and straights are good.
A bluff is something I pick up when a bet doesn't make sense or fit the previous play of the hand and how the board has developed. You play enough hands, and you get a feel for how a hand is going to go depending on which cards come. You also have an assumed range of hands that someone will have. When they suddenly come to life and make a bet that's unusual and doesn't fit their range of hands, it causes me to stop and think a bit harder. Did I misread their range? Did they decide to get tricky or play unusually earlier in the hand? Does what their bet says they have make sense?
Depending on how I feel about the answers to those sorts of questions, and where my own hand falls in the range of hands I have in that spot, I will often make a call. I don't make the call because I "know" they're bluffing this time, sometimes they're not. I make they call because I expect them to be bluffing often enough that it's profitable. I trust my feelings, which are based on lots of experience and being in similar spots.
Now, when I am bluffing on the end, the same rules apply. If you are probably weak (or your range is highly polarized to air or the nuts), I size my bluffs smaller. I can save money when I get raised or called, but I still expect to win. When your range is strong, but likely to have gotten worse as the board came out (turn and river hurt your range), I am likely to bluff more on the large side, because I expect you to find a way to justify paying me off with a good hand. Actually, I often will pass on these spots unless I know you can fold there, because most micro players find a way to justify calling even large bets.
I think, for many players, bet sizing is not a good way to detect bluffs. Many players bet large because they have a big hand. They're not thinking about what you have, they're not thinking of bluffing. They're just thinking that they have a straight and straights are good.
A bluff is something I pick up when a bet doesn't make sense or fit the previous play of the hand and how the board has developed. You play enough hands, and you get a feel for how a hand is going to go depending on which cards come. You also have an assumed range of hands that someone will have. When they suddenly come to life and make a bet that's unusual and doesn't fit their range of hands, it causes me to stop and think a bit harder. Did I misread their range? Did they decide to get tricky or play unusually earlier in the hand? Does what their bet says they have make sense?
Depending on how I feel about the answers to those sorts of questions, and where my own hand falls in the range of hands I have in that spot, I will often make a call. I don't make the call because I "know" they're bluffing this time, sometimes they're not. I make they call because I expect them to be bluffing often enough that it's profitable. I trust my feelings, which are based on lots of experience and being in similar spots.
Jacki Burkhart
long winded rambler...
Silver Level
First, before specifically trying to figure out if he is bluffing THIS hand....I just think about the player's tendencies in general. Is he frequently betting betting betting? is he rarely folding or calling? If he is an active aggressive player, then right there the odds have greatly increased that he is bluffing in general....which will extend to this hand and all hands.
The nice thing about this is you can practice this skill between hands and it doesn't cost you any money and it's not as stressful when you're not in the hand.
Now...to figure out if it is more or less likely that he is bluffing this hand than in general you have to look to the story. Does the story make sense? What does he seem to be "representing" and is that how a person would really play that hand? Does this bet size seem designed to make me fold or call? The more he seems to be trying to make you fold + the frequency he has been betting in previous hands + whether or not his story makes sense is how I decide whether or not to call.
Important concept: You must be able to beat a bluff! some players will turn bottom pair of 4s into a bluff, so you can't just figure "I think he's bluffing" and call off profitably with pocket 2s. In fact, if stacks allow and you're pretty sure he's bluffing it's better to raise with your hands that are worse then 2nd or 3rd pair or to pitch them than to call with them.
The nice thing about this is you can practice this skill between hands and it doesn't cost you any money and it's not as stressful when you're not in the hand.
Now...to figure out if it is more or less likely that he is bluffing this hand than in general you have to look to the story. Does the story make sense? What does he seem to be "representing" and is that how a person would really play that hand? Does this bet size seem designed to make me fold or call? The more he seems to be trying to make you fold + the frequency he has been betting in previous hands + whether or not his story makes sense is how I decide whether or not to call.
Important concept: You must be able to beat a bluff! some players will turn bottom pair of 4s into a bluff, so you can't just figure "I think he's bluffing" and call off profitably with pocket 2s. In fact, if stacks allow and you're pretty sure he's bluffing it's better to raise with your hands that are worse then 2nd or 3rd pair or to pitch them than to call with them.
D
dudubets
Rising Star
Bronze Level
Well first of all you don't guess, you know or dont haha.
Pay attention to your opponent, if he always play agressive or not, if he play lots of hands or just some and how often he try to scare other players.
Players that bluff a lot will be very easy to take out. Just do not bluff and you will win, wait for a good hand and let he raize for you.
PLAYINBIG
Legend
Silver Level
1st thing to me is by watching the player.You see a guy who is bullying everyone around all game dragging pot after pot.He is playing with the same deck of cards that I am.Good chance if he did not hit on flop he didn't hit on the turn either. if he tries to bluff.If he is going all in pre flop with everything he is playing,it's bingo or trying to gain pot control with nothing and put u on tilt. Just wait on a good hand a nail his bluff.A bluff has to be believable.A smart player will catch on.If he shows you his bluff say nothing and keep playing.
jimmy andres
Rock Star
Silver Level
Then look if it is the first time you play against a player like that, he will try to intimidate you with 3 big blinds then on the turn with 4 and so making continuation bets and in several cases will all in but you will know that if before all These bets you have your armed hand you will see that in the end there will not have connected any card on the table and will have done all this just for a hoax.
antonis32123
Legend
Loyaler
I try to check the previous betting pattern of the opponents , so when sb bets iregularly , it might be a bluff . Also if sb with low stack donk bets on a dry flop oop after getting 3bet preflop , when I deal with a LAG many times he bluffs .
I check the pattern of the board , the previous bets/raises that have been made , the history of the player(s) in the hand , their aggressiveness , our stacks and the bet sizes and I decide to call bluffs or not accordingly .
But yes , the better a player is , the more difficult it is to spot his bluffs and to call his very big bets/3barrels sometimes , so only with weak players and them lowstack , oop and us with a decent hand it's easier to reveal bluffs I guess .
I check the pattern of the board , the previous bets/raises that have been made , the history of the player(s) in the hand , their aggressiveness , our stacks and the bet sizes and I decide to call bluffs or not accordingly .
But yes , the better a player is , the more difficult it is to spot his bluffs and to call his very big bets/3barrels sometimes , so only with weak players and them lowstack , oop and us with a decent hand it's easier to reveal bluffs I guess .
milencenov
Legend
Bronze Level
To my previous post that I made here long ago, I would add that the bluffs of your opponent also depend on your behavior.
If you show little interest in the pot, check or make minimum bets, a guy with a very strong hand will not bet very big, because he would not want to scare you away from the pot. And if a guy bombs the river with a huge bet when the card is not completing any str8 or flush draws - most likely, it is a bluff.
Conversely, if you bet big and show big interest to win the pot, a guy with very strong hand will bet big, hoping that you will make a hero (fish) call. While a bluffer will not be so daring in this situation.
Remember - bluffers most often are very brave when they can bully and intimidate you with their big bets, but they poop their pants and insta-fold, if you counter them appropriately.
If you show little interest in the pot, check or make minimum bets, a guy with a very strong hand will not bet very big, because he would not want to scare you away from the pot. And if a guy bombs the river with a huge bet when the card is not completing any str8 or flush draws - most likely, it is a bluff.
Conversely, if you bet big and show big interest to win the pot, a guy with very strong hand will bet big, hoping that you will make a hero (fish) call. While a bluffer will not be so daring in this situation.
Remember - bluffers most often are very brave when they can bully and intimidate you with their big bets, but they poop their pants and insta-fold, if you counter them appropriately.
Masi2197
Rock Star
Silver Level
Many of the players who are new and do not know how to make a good bluff start without having anything on the table and make a double of the chips on the table if someone equals tend to bet slightly less than what I bet on your first attempt Of his bluff there will give you cuemta that he has nothing for which a raise to his bet on the turn or river will make him retire or lose his chips
rock0001
Legend
Bronze Level
you can never know for sure if villain is bluffing or not. however there are some situation in which villain is more likely to bluff like when villain makes a c bet on a low board like 723 rainbow in most cases villain is trying to steal the pot. also when a loose player makes a big re raise on a paired board like 10 10 3, if you have a middle or a high pair there are lot of chances that he is bluffing because if villain has the 10 why not just he slowplay and make a value bet on the turn and river?. also when villain is the last player to act and he checks on the flop and then bets on the turn after a low card comes without any straight or flush draw villain might be trying to steal the pot so in some cases you can try to re raise to know whether he is bluffing or is slowplaying a good hand.
