This is a discussion on Effective Odds demystified within the online poker forums, in the Learning Poker section; I have been studying David Sklansky's Theory of Poker. Participate in my journey in this thread: https://www.cardschat.com/forum/learningpoker57/backbookstheorypokersklansky375355/ Chapter 06: Effective Odds is giving me some 

Effective Odds demystified 
#1




Effective Odds demystified
I have been studying David Sklansky's Theory of Poker. Participate in my journey in this thread: https://www.cardschat.com/forum/learningpoker57/backbookstheorypokersklansky375355/ Chapter 06: Effective Odds is giving me some problems, I *think* I understand Effective Odds in Fixed Limit  but struggling to determine how/when to apply the calculations in NoLimit.
Would someone please share your thought process and the NL hand where you applied Effective Odds to make a decision on whether or not to call the flop?
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What is the most effective way to learn at MTT?  46  June 1st, 2020 12:42 PM  Tournament Poker 
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Effective Odds  Sklansky Fixed Limit Example
Sklansky provides a Fixed Limit Example for us to think about Effective Odds. I'll use Sklansky's example to mock up a hand for review so that we can further discuss. Our hero (BB) is trying to determine if he should make a call ON THE FLOP when drawing to a flush. Our mission is to determine if Hero is getting the correct Effective Odds to make the call ON THE FLOP. The Game: Fixed Limit Hold'Em $10/$20 (this makes SB = $5 and BB = $10) Preflop/Flop betting increment $10. Turn/River betting increment $20 Player stacks are EQUAL, each has $500 (noone will be all in this hand) Preflop:
Flop:
Comparing the pot odds to the immediate odds when Hero (BB) only plans to see the turn (1 card) we have 3to1 pot odds against 4:1 chance of improving. Our calculations indicate that calling the flop is NOT a good call. Comparing the pot odds to the immediate odds when Hero (BB) plans to see the turn/river (2 cards) we have 3to1 pot odds against 1.9:1 chance of improving. This calculation looks to indicate a good call on the flop BUT  it is not a correct comparison (we've used immediate odds) UNLESS the 2nd card is free (i.e. a player is allin). In our scenario there are no players allin, so we can expect that we will be faced with a bet and decision on later rounds. Effective Odds will help our Hero (BB) determine if he should call the flop based on predictive thinking about the turn/river rounds. Turn: Hypothetical  Hero (BB) is deciding if he should call the flop
River: Hypothetical  Hero (BB) is deciding if he should call the flop
In summary: In this Fixed Limit Hold'Em example I believe that Sklansky's point is that a player is making a mistake when he only considers the immediate odds  the "right now"  when he needs to draw to improve his hand. A great player takes into account the $$ the TOTAL amount he might win or lose, to make a good decision to call (or not) in earlier rounds. If someone will confirm that I've understood and articulated this example from Sklansky's Theory of Poker (chapter 6) correctly  I'll attempt to perform the same kind of analysis on a No Limit hand OR even better  if someone else could try to demystify Effective Odds I'd love to learn from you! Anyone?
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Ok, I can't help you, but this definitively helped me. It clarifies things for me, and it makes sense.
To adapt this to no limit, you would need to guess what your opponent is likely to do on the next street. It makes it harder, but I feel like you can have a general idea of what's going to happen. Like if someone is betting on the flop, I would assume that person would make a bet of around the same proportion on the turn, and probably on the river too. Does Sklansky say something about this in NLHE ?
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re: Poker & Effective Odds demystified
I am thinking about trying to apply the same hand story but change the math to NLHE with the following profiles
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Would you be so kind to explain the hand that you had a few days ago? Assuming the game was NLHE, was it tournament or cash? What position were you in? What position was your opponent in? What were the hold cards you had? What was the preflop action? What was the flop? What did your opponent do on the flop? With this information we can attempt to work out the Effective Odds to see if your play was correct mathematically.
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re: Poker & Effective Odds demystified
Yes, I think it is useful to work out how profitable it is to call flop bets with draws in various scenarios. In NLHE, in practice:  Your opponent can bet, or check, on any street  His bets can be of any size (assuming both players are deep stacked)  You also have the option to bet, or raise, on any street. This will often be the most profitable choice.  Your bets or raises can be of any size  Your opponent can fold, call, or reraise in response to any bet you make. That's a lot of variables. If you know your opponent, or know the way typical opponents play in your game, you can estimate what actions he is likely to take, and how likely he is to take those actions. I don't find it practical to work out a mathematical effective odds figure at the table. But working out the math for scenarios in advance helps make decisions on the table easier. My actual thinking at the table regarding effective odds for the example hand in NLHE is more like: This player completed from the SB. He didn't raise, although he raises unopened pots in late position about 40% of the time. So he probably doesn't have an Ace, a pair, or suited connectors, although maybe he is being sneaky. He bet half pot on the flop. He's pretty tight and passive postflop, so his bet on the flop probably represents a real hand  maybe a 7, a 2, or a flush draw, although occasionally he will bluff. If I call, he'll probably check the turn if his hand does not improve, although occasionally he will bluff. If his hand does improve on the turn, he'll probably bet halfpot or more, and I'll need to fold. He's not a calling station postflop. So I can probably get to the river at no additional cost, but I probably won't win a large pot if I hit my flush. If I make my flush on either street, he'll probably pay off one halfpot bet about half the time. Since his hand is probably weak, and he is not a calling station, I think he will fold about half the time if I bet 3/4 pot on the turn (if he checks the turn). Sometimes I'll win 4 BB by betting the turn, sometimes I'll win 4 BB by making my flush, sometimes I'll win 6 BB by making my flush, and sometimes I'll lose 1 BB, sometimes I'll lose 6 or more BB if I make my flush and my opponent makes a better flush or a full house. I can't assign an exact probability to any of those outcomes. But I think the price is low enough, and the chances of winning are high enough, that I should call this flop. You can see that there are many things we can change about the opponent that might change the effective odds. The opponent might bet bigger on the flop. He might be passive preflop, increasing the chances that he has an A or another good hand that would pay off a bigger bet postflop. He might be more aggressive postflop, or a calling station. He might raise preflop, and his usual range for raising might be wide or narrow, etc. TL;DR, it's not practical to come up with an exact estimate at the table, and there are many factors to consider, but it is helpful to run some numbers away from the table.
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