All in pre-flop

M

mojorising

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There are a few irrationally aggressive players around.

The play the pre-flop like it is a lottery.

All-in every hand.

I am a cautious player so far so I always fold.

I have folded pocket aces and jacks which is frustrating but I prefer to play poker than play the lottery.

My question is what are the actual odds of winning heads up against another player when you have a top pair (obviously the odds will vary for each top pair)

Couldn't find the answer on google.
 
paulinhlt

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Before the flop pops up, you need to put your opponent in some range of hands.
After the flop, and you are a top pair, you can choose to check or mini-raise. In the case of a raise, if your opponent pays, you must again decrease the hand range and from the turn, you can raise by bluff or value, according to your opponent's range reading and thus extract the maximum of chips.

Of course not always the top pair on the flop will pull the pot, so the readings before the plays are essential.
 
twizzybop

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That amazes me still. Folding the best starting pre-flop hand, especially pre-flop.
Why be afraid to lose when you have the best and you are doing your best?
Having the best percentage to win pre-flop isn't ever going to be a bad thing.
 
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I understand how to calculate potential range based on a flop.

But before the flop the only thing you know is that he does not have your 2 hole cards.

I have an opponent who is behaving in an irrationally aggressive way so I would say his hole cards could really be anything. He is betting all in as if he is not even looking at the hole cards.

To take an imaginary situation:-

I am on pocket aces and I have an imaginary opponent who literally has not looked at his hole cards but has gone all-in then what are the odds of beating him if I go all in?
 
paulinhlt

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If your opponent is unreasonably aggressive pre flop, your chances of winning are high.
 
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mojorising

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Yes the odds are certainly better than even with aces but how much better?

Like what is the actual percentage chance of winning - in the case of pocket aces versus only one opponent at the table with random hole cards pre-flop?
 
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mojorising

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I found the answer

73.19%

This is a good little tool to play with.

https://www.pokernews.com/poker-tools/poker-odds-calculator.htm

When I folded there were 3 other players still in.

The calculator says that with random cards for the other 3 players I would only have a 48.94% chance of winning at the showdown holding pocket aces pre-flop.

The first crazy player was going all in UTG. I was holding pocket aces UTG+1. There were 2 more players after me.
 
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There are a few irrationally aggressive players around.

The play the pre-flop like it is a lottery.

All-in every hand.

I am a cautious player so far so I always fold.

I have folded pocket aces and jacks which is frustrating but I prefer to play poker than play the lottery.

My question is what are the actual odds of winning heads up against another player when you have a top pair (obviously the odds will vary for each top pair)

Couldn't find the answer on google.

First of all, folding Aces preflop is a huge mistake from your side. You have the best hand, you have to call. Don't even think about odds. I would be thrilled if someone would go all-in preflop when I'm holding Aces. Same thing with Kings. I mean, think about it: are you folding a straight if someone goes all-in and there's a flush draw at the table? I don't think so. You have to take a shot with the best hand even though there is a possibility to lose on later streets. If you lose, that's poker and bad luck. It's part of the game. If you are holding Aces, your opponent needs at least two cards to beat you unless they are holding a pocket pair too. And if they are, they still need one more card to win unless they are holding Aces as well.

I know I'm not really answering your question here but if you are against someone who goes all-in in EVERY hand, you have to start calling them much wider. Even with those Jacks. Most of the time they have nothing but rubbish. I would call them with AK and AQ as well. Maybe even AJ and pocket 10's.
 
Serjo600

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play the limit games
 
TeUnit

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Please dont fold AA preflop unless there is some weird icm situation.

You would be better off establishing a range for the villan and calling appropriately, maybe use a push fold chart if you have to.
 
Mini1380

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For me it all depends who goes all in pre flop and why they are going all I pre flop. If it's a super tight player I will call all in with aa. But some times if a player has just lost a big hand I will call him with a high card if I think he is tilt. Also it depends if they have me our chipped or I have them out chipped.
 
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I confess to being more cautious than normal due to it being my first session on higher stakes tables.

All in meant 10% of my bankroll on one hand.

Just to make matters worse the cards flopped a set of aces - but I had already folded!

Regarding that link. I am not sure if has bugs but when I give myself aces and my only opponent aces it says we both have 2% chance of winning but obviously that is wrong as we must both have 50% chance of winning.
 
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I confess to being more cautious than normal due to it being my first session on higher stakes tables.

All in meant 10% of my bankroll on one hand.

Just to make matters worse the cards flopped a set of aces - but I had already folded!

Regarding that link. I am not sure if has bugs but when I give myself aces and my only opponent aces it says we both have 2% chance of winning but obviously that is wrong as we must both have 50% chance of winning.

Climing up the stakes can be hard and scary but even so, folding Aces is not a way to go. Especially when your opponent has been as aggressive as you described. You should always play according to your bankroll in a way that it doesn't make you scared of losing the whole buy-in. Only then you can play relaxed game and make right decisions, without a fear of losing. But maybe these comments here will open your eyes little bit. I sincerely hope that you will call with those Aces next time :D Good luck!
 
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The calculator says that with random cards for the other 3 players I would only have a 48.94%

It gives me a higher number, as does Equilab.

If you can't afford to play a profitable spot, you're playing at too high a stake.
 
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ph_il

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I confess to being more cautious than normal due to it being my first session on higher stakes tables.

All in meant 10% of my bankroll on one hand.
Are you able to beat the stakes before the current one you're playing?

10% if your BR is a lot. If your roll is only $100, that's a $10 buy-in. If the risk of losing 10% of your BR with AA is affecting your good decision making, drop down in stakes and increase your BR management.

For MTTs, you should have at least 100 buy-ins or $1 for a roll of $100.

For cash, I think 30-40 buy-ins is good.
 
Gabinho12345

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Folding AA preflop is much worse than going all in every hand.
 
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Anyway the point of the thread was really to try and find out if there is an accurate online poker probability calculator which can answer probability questions of the type posed in the OP?
 
AMTF1988

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This strategy have 99% players of freerolls tournaments
Of course, they're not losing any money and if they hit they're in a better position than everyone else. I've been stung by it so many times, most of the time when i finally hit a premium hand and call, he hits a pair of 2's or a straight/flush
 
pretorijan

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All in pre flop is only luck,nothing more!
 
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Regarding that link. I am not sure if has bugs but when I give myself aces and my only opponent aces it says we both have 2% chance of winning but obviously that is wrong as we must both have 50% chance of winning.

I found the Cardschat calculator here

https://www.cardschat.com/poker-odds-calculator.php#calculator

It gives the same results.

I give myself 2 aces

I give my heads up opponent 2 aces.

The calculator says preflop I have 2.21% chance of winning and my opponent has 2.3% chance

But that cannot be right.

We both have 50% chance of winning since our hands are identical
 
AMTF1988

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I found the Cardschat calculator here

https://www.cardschat.com/poker-odds-calculator.php#calculator

It gives the same results.

I give myself 2 aces

I give my heads up opponent 2 aces.

The calculator says preflop I have 2.21% chance of winning and my opponent has 2.3% chance

But that cannot be right.

We both have 50% chance of winning since our hands are identical
That's the chance of WINNING, not drawing.

That's the chance of 4 suited cards coming up on the board
 
volcov

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There are days and hands that end up paying all in preflop as AA AK
 
AMTF1988

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That's the chance of WINNING, not drawing.

That's the chance of 4 suited cards coming up on the board
Forgot to add, as soon as 3 different suits come up on the flop, it will change to 50/50 as at that point there is no chance of either hand winning
 
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