93 percent or better after flop

[John bruce]

Got to the final table on the Inter tops free roll. Dodge a bunch but couldn't get away from KK. Wanted to steal some blinds so I put a huge bet got one caller. Flop came out 259. He checked I went all in he called. You guessed it trips 9. Guess 8th is the place. Never fails.

 

[Queenlimp]

As I cannot explain and don't try to do so:
There is no doubt, the observation that all-in's turn in to such a phenomenon that through time, I've found to be simply amazing. In a situation where there is no evidence, there is no reason to rationalize. Your practical experience may be the most profitable source for judgment. I'm absolutely convinced my relative bankroll to opponent produces particular outcomes. Not a science but on average. I've been on the adverse and favorable side.
Yet, I've also went to the casino and won by occasion 12 times in a row and lost about 6 times in a row.


It does not have to make sense mathematically. However, to tune into strategy based on what you find to be practical makes a lot of sense. Why behave upon the assumption of the unknown rather than benefit from what is experientially.


I've went on the most radical cooler in my history of over 17 years of online poker.
Situations of loosing against 2 card outers that is routine for about 3 weeks.
I do not suggest odds stacked against me as I've never had it happen to such a degree but recently.


What I do find amazing is the willingness of many players, irrespective of their chip count, to make certain irrational decisions in the presence of insurmountable odds.


The best method is simply to play at a rate and with a style you are comfortable with and that optimizes your opportunity for success. If this cannot be achieved after your investment of what you consider reasonable time, it would be best to seek out high level advise or quit. There is no reason to participate in a reality that does not support your reasoning or practical sense.


One thing is for sure that we all cannot ignore. We can become biased in our judgment based on experience. So while there may be truth to be discovered, the better viewpoint or outcome comes with interpretation and the appropriate reaction.

 

[John bruce]

As I cannot explain and don't try to do so:
There is no doubt, the observation that all-in's turn in to such a phenomenon that through time, I've found to be simply amazing. In a situation where there is no evidence, there is no reason to rationalize. Your practical experience may be the most profitable source for judgment. I'm absolutely convinced my relative bankroll to opponent produces particular outcomes. Not a science but on average. I've been on the adverse and favorable side.
Yet, I've also went to the casino and won by occasion 12 times in a row and lost about 6 times in a row.


It does not have to make sense mathematically. However, to tune into strategy based on what you find to be practical makes a lot of sense. Why behave upon the assumption of the unknown rather than benefit from what is experientially.


I've went on the most radical cooler in my history of over 17 years of online poker.
Situations of loosing against 2 card outers that is routine for about 3 weeks.
I do not suggest odds stacked against me as I've never had it happen to such a degree but recently.


What I do find amazing is the willingness of many players, irrespective of their chip count, to make certain irrational decisions in the presence of insurmountable odds.


The best method is simply to play at a rate and with a style you are comfortable with and that optimizes your opportunity for success. If this cannot be achieved after your investment of what you consider reasonable time, it would be best to seek out high level advise or quit. There is no reason to participate in a reality that does not support your reasoning or practical sense.


One thing is for sure that we all cannot ignore. We can become biased in our judgment based on experience. So while there may be truth to be discovered, the better viewpoint or outcome comes with interpretation and the appropriate reaction.

Ok. What I got out of all this. Nothing. Thanks

 

[Queenlimp]

Ok. What I got out of all this. Nothing. Thanks

Well, for a year of minimal profitability for a lot of hands at a 93% favorite means your are very unlucky. Don't know if you can do much about that?


Consideration for who your up against could be a possibility or the stakes you chose to play?
Hoping to provide a little perspective of what you define as insanity.
I notice the most weird things when all in.

Trying to encourage a fold before showdown maybe?


Maybe that may help offset why 7% keeps taking you down.

 

[MattRyder]

If your playing well and seem to find your self losing after the flop. with hands that where 93 percent or better to win only to loose by the river. Would these be bad beats or just suck outs.

Just normal for me.

You mean it's NOT normal to lose when you're 93% favored to win? Who knew!

 

[John bruce]

Well, for a year of minimal profitability for a lot of hands at a 93% favorite means your are very unlucky. Don't know if you can do much about that?


Consideration for who your up against could be a possibility or the stakes you chose to play?
Hoping to provide a little perspective of what you define as insanity.
I notice the most weird things when all in.

Trying to encourage a fold before showdown maybe?


Maybe that may help offset why 7% keeps taking you down.[/QUOTE

absolutely not. In live poker I want you to chases those draws. I want you calling with a lower pair. Just seems to hit more online is all. I would be good if my hands had a win rate of 3/4 of the time if there 93 percent or better. I can't be unlucky for a year and a half. I'm disabled and spend most my days just watching. I could never prove anything other than my how cards are with in 5 percent of what I'm supposbe for it to be random. Just fishy I tell ya

 

[John bruce]

Just got knocked out of CC tourney. Play safe as usual. Get KK I push a good size bet but big stack pushes me all in. He has a,Qoff . Flop comes out k,j,10. I mean really. Then came a ace and a 9. Just seems like all in changes a true win rate. I don't believe in continuous luck. I believe everyone has there time. But I'm not as trusting as most. Somethings up.

 

[John bruce]

I know this isn't a93 percentage but as usual I'm unlucky or is it's rig. Second CC tourney first hand. I get a,k off. I put in bet for 350 I getI get two calls. Flop comes ought 3,10,7. First guy checks second checks I bet 200. Get one caller. Turn is a A. He checks I go all in he calls sure enough he had A,7. River I don't know. But this happens so often. Truth is the only time i don't see a A rag hit is when I have it. Really is a joke.

 

[puzzlefish]

Ok so put it this way - if you have two callers and you hit your top pair top kicker on the turn, what do you think your villains hold when you shove over them all-in with AK? I get that the two pair against your top pair happens a lot, but why do you keep letting it happen for your whole stack?

 

[John bruce]

Ok so put it this way - if you have two callers and you hit your top pair top kicker on the turn, what do you think your villains hold when you shove over them all-in with AK? I get that the two pair against your top pair happens a lot, but why do you keep letting it happen for your whole stack?

It wasn't my best decision. Guess frustration has me and I did add it wasn't one of my 93 percent hands. My thought was he hit one of the flop cards and the other guy folded. It just so happens I hit good on the turn and he hit better. He hide it well by checking. This was my bad for sure.

 

[John bruce]

Today was fun. Got knocked out in fourth place on the CC free roll. Didn't get any face cards or connectors last 41 hands at the final table. Was going to blind out so I took a stab and blurred. Everyone folded. 35,000 chips and BB is 15,000 so I get k,4 I go all in he calls k,5. So I lose. Good run.
I go over to the cash table put it all on the table. First hand 7,7 everybody rolls. Next hand is q,Q. I made 1.50 bet he called. Flop comes out 8,j,2. He bet a dollar I pushed all in he calls and flips over 7,8 for 7 dollars. Dang I might win one. Turn is a 8. River is nothing. This is my life. Never a break. That's why I would never deposit. No trust. That and my luck is just to shitty. This might also not make the 93 percent rule but just another reminder.

 

[Queenlimp]

My post John was slightly sarcastic but did provide some perspective, although it did not make a whole lot of poker sense. Just a response to when "speculative players dominate."


I had one CC game when I ran like a monster and came in first place.
My favorable hands actually held up and I had a stack where a couple of loses did not retire me! I'm sure you will get some of these runs.


I'm sure you will run decently with a deposit and playing some weak players.

 

[John bruce]

Like I said I win some money from free rolls. Once I'm a club member I'm sure I'll win a bit more. It is the cash tables that make me laugh. It's not winning or losing that drives me crazy because it's not my money that I lose. Just some winning. It is the fact that I'm always ahead when the move is made with a very low success rate. In live poker I have made a killing off of people chasing that dream card. Only a fool thinks he can win them all. Real question is are you entertained even if you think the sites are not on the up. I am. Or I would of stop a year ago. :sheep:

 

[oneybiggs]

Today was fun. Got knocked out in fourth place on the CC free roll. Didn't get any face cards or connectors last 41 hands at the final table. Was going to blind out so I took a stab and blurred. Everyone folded. 35,000 chips and BB is 15,000 so I get k,4 I go all in he calls k,5. So I lose. Good run.
I go over to the cash table put it all on the table. First hand 7,7 everybody rolls. Next hand is q,Q. I made 1.50 bet he called. Flop comes out 8,j,2. He bet a dollar I pushed all in he calls and flips over 7,8 for 7 dollars. Dang I might win one. Turn is a 8. River is nothing. This is my life. Never a break. That's why I would never deposit. No trust. That and my luck is just to shitty. This might also not make the 93 percent rule but just another reminder.

crikey lol i just cracked four other players with my most hated hand...55 first hand too...followed by a series of badbeats ,2 outs and so forth ,like every card assembly had been placed by a child that couldnt understand adults could see what was going on....i have quickly remembered why i spewed so badly at 888poker that they closed my level 90 account....and i was silly enough to have another look...honestly sorry cardschat but in my opinion 888 is the worst most blatantly fabricated site out there...fullstop!

 

[puzzlefish]

I think PS has 888 beat. They're close though. Haven't played enough on ACR to compare the three.

 

[Queenlimp]

Cash games are for sure a monster when compared to tourney play. I was convinced there was something fishy going on. Determined to win, I folded just about every contested draw, feeling exactly as you do. I then went on a great 30 day heater. After getting a few bucks, I realized that without 4 buy-ins in a sitting, the game is just about hopeless.
This is from a PLO perspective.
Made my way to over $100 on a few pennies. Then got frustrated one weekend and squandered it all. The next week I was baffled by my ridiculous play.

 

[MatMackenz]

Running deep in the $1 Goldfish on 888...


888Poker, $0.92 + $0.08 - Hold'em No Limit - 10,000/20,000 (2,500 ante) - 8 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker

CHENTEvo (UTG): 194,895 (10 bb)
vladimirnath (UTG+1): 363,648 (18 bb)
MatMackenz (MP): 223,225 (11 bb)
SKarpach (MP+1): 542,654 (27 bb)
Bersa10k (CO): 35,648 (2 bb)
Flopit2Me (BU): 396,608 (20 bb)
pidzamka79 (SB): 218,981 (11 bb)
Brinyir (BB): 427,423 (21 bb)

Pre-Flop: (50,000) Hero (MatMackenz) is MP with Q♥ K♥
2 players fold, MatMackenz (MP) raises to 40,000, 3 players fold, pidzamka79 (SB) calls 30,000, Brinyir (BB) calls 20,000

Flop: (140,000) 3♦ K♣ 8♠ (3 players)
pidzamka79 (SB) checks, Brinyir (BB) checks, MatMackenz (MP) bets 50,000, pidzamka79 (SB) folds, Brinyir (BB) raises to 384,923 (all-in), MatMackenz (MP) calls 130,725 (all-in)

Turn: (501,450) T♣ (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (501,450) J♠ (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: 501,450

Showdown:
Brinyir (BB) shows T♦ K♠ (two pair, Kings and Tens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 25%, Flop: 14%, Turn: 93%, River: 100%)

MatMackenz (MP) shows Q♥ K♥ (a pair of Kings)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 75%, Flop: 86%, Turn: 7%, River: 0%)

Brinyir (BB) wins 501,450

 

[puzzlefish]

Yawn. Overplay top pair for tournament life.

 

[Cajin007]

got ya beat.


Game started at: 2019/3/3 16:39:32
Game ID: 1389464081 50/100 CardsChat $100 Daily Freeroll, Table 5 (Hold'em)
Seat 1 is the button
Seat 1: pokerpieguy (1745).
Seat 2: Darth_Moola (2485). VILLAIN
Seat 3: woohoosuedoyles (2180).
Seat 4: MTCashman (1870).
Seat 5: 57noona (11815).
Seat 6: TwinPeaches (17318).
Seat 7: mtl mile end (3672).
Seat 8: awsum10 (1810).
Seat 9: KajinPlayer (1746). HERO
Ante 10

Player MTCashman folds
Player 57noona folds
Player TwinPeaches folds
Player mtl mile end folds
Player awsum10 folds
Player KajinPlayer raises (300)
Player pokerpieguy folds
Player Darth_Moola raises (842)
Player woohoosuedoyles folds
Player KajinPlayer allin (1436)
Player Darth_Moola calls (844)
Player Darth_Moola shows: [4h 4d] 47.91%
Player KajinPlayer shows: [8d 7d] 50.42%

*** FLOP ***: [8h 5c 5h]
Darth_Moola : 13.87%
Hero : 86.00%
*** TURN ***: [Js]
Darth_Moola : 4.58%
Hero : 95.42%
*** RIVER ***: [4s]

Need I say more?

 

[John bruce]

You have to find the humor in it. Inter tops has removed the am free roll. Guess their not making enough money. So I have been limited on just the evening free rolls. Point being made I lost last three nights in a row with the exact set up. Have a pocket pair they been 55,66 every time. I'm on big blind no one bets so I bet pot. Every one fold s but one. Flop comes out I got a full boat. He bets big I call. So I know he has a trips. This is where it get interesting. If I had pocket 5,5 then my turn and river would be 6,6. Giving him a higher boat. Three days in a row exact same way. Losing too a higher boat sucks but really think about it. What are chances.
BB with low pocket pair.
Big bet makes everyone fold but but some crazy 8,9 suited
Both players hit their cards. Him trips me a boat.
I slow play all the hands just calling these crazy bets. All in every time
Turn and river are paired up all three times.
Knock me out of tourney all three times.
I'm skeptical for sure. I am sure they meat the 93 percent or better after flop. Are we entertained?

 

[puzzlefish]

got ya beat.


Game started at: 2019/3/3 16:39:32
Game ID: 1389464081 50/100 CardsChat $100 Daily Freeroll, Table 5 (Hold'em)
Seat 1 is the button
Seat 1: pokerpieguy (1745).
Seat 2: Darth_Moola (2485). VILLAIN
Seat 3: woohoosuedoyles (2180).
Seat 4: MTCashman (1870).
Seat 5: 57noona (11815).
Seat 6: TwinPeaches (17318).
Seat 7: mtl mile end (3672).
Seat 8: awsum10 (1810).
Seat 9: KajinPlayer (1746). HERO
Ante 10

Player MTCashman folds
Player 57noona folds
Player TwinPeaches folds
Player mtl mile end folds
Player awsum10 folds
Player KajinPlayer raises (300)
Player pokerpieguy folds
Player Darth_Moola raises (842)
Player woohoosuedoyles folds
Player KajinPlayer allin (1436)
Player Darth_Moola calls (844)
Player Darth_Moola shows: [4h 4d] 47.91%
Player KajinPlayer shows: [8d 7d] 50.42%

*** FLOP ***: [8h 5c 5h]
Darth_Moola : 13.87%
Hero : 86.00%
*** TURN ***: [Js]
Darth_Moola : 4.58%
Hero : 95.42%
*** RIVER ***: [4s]

Need I say more?

That's more like it.

 

[Poker Orifice]

It will pay off, but your 'life expectancy' (and profitability) sharply increases when you do not typically go all-in in these situations.

huh?
So are you suggesting we shouldn't be wanting to go all-in in these spots? And if this is what you're suggesting, how much of a favorite do we need to be in order to risk going all-in?

 

[John bruce]

You have to find the humor in it. Inter tops has removed the am free roll. Guess their not making enough money. So I have been limited on just the evening free rolls. Point being made I lost last three nights in a row with the exact set up. Have a pocket pair they been 55,66 every time. I'm on big blind no one bets so I bet pot. Every one fold s but one. Flop comes out I got a full boat. He bets big I call. So I know he has a trips. This is where it get interesting. If I had pocket 5,5 then my turn and river would be 6,6. Giving him a higher boat. Three days in a row exact same way. Losing too a higher boat sucks but really think about it. What are chances.
BB with low pocket pair.
Big bet makes everyone fold but but some crazy 8,9 suited
Both players hit their cards. Him trips me a boat.
I slow play all the hands just calling these crazy bets. All in every time
Turn and river are paired up all three times.
Knock me out of tourney all three times.
I'm skeptical for sure. I am sure they meat the 93 percent or better after flop. Are we entertained?

Also has removed the two 100 free rolls. Not good.

 

[John bruce]

That's more like it.

That doesn't even make the 93% post flop. This happens around 75 percent of the time. It's not that these kinds of hands can't happen. It's the consistency. Usually targeting aggressive players. Aggressive play actually may make a big hand eventually but normally creates small pots. Aggression+out of position+stack seems to trigger a nice underdog dinero.

 

[Poker Orifice]

This looks like the thread where the bad players group together to whine about how unfortunate they are.... all wanting to blame the site(s). What I don't see is ANY of you posting in HandHistory analysis posts, or sharing about your study sessions, or giving reviews on latest poker books. I wonder what that is? I wonder why I don't see the winning regs posting in agreement with you in these posts? (it's just a bunch of players who KILL it in live games but are unable to beat the micros online insisting it's rigged against them).
I can guarantee you one thing John... you can get better at this game if you choose to. Do I think you will? No. I think you're too stuck in the mindset of poor woe is me... it must be rigged against me. Step1 would be admitting you're not very good. Step2 Came to believe it is possible to get MUCH better Step3 Just do it. Why not?