Kasanova King
Visionary
Silver Level
Maybe online, where you can just jump onto the next tournament. Live, on a final table, I would have to disagree. You need to make a multi leveled decision at that point, not based soley on EV. Personally, I like to get paid in real dollars, not Sklansky $$.
M
Marginal
Junior Member
Silver Level
The problem is that his edge is not that great against elky, elky is a monster and even if it is a marginal (har har har) situation, you got to take it because it will be smooth sailings without him.
B
bubonicplay
Rock Star
Silver Level
Poker's gambling, it always is. Personally for me my goal is to maximize my expectation. You do realize sometimes people run good and make more money than Sklansky $$ right? I mean sure if say you sattied into the wsop ME or something and normally play $5 games and are faced with a decision you should take the less profitable route for the guaranteed money. But when analyzing a hand we usually assume they are using decent BRM and their goal should be to simply maximize their expectation. You don't win a tourney by outlasting all the other people, you win it by taking all their chips. This is a pretty big misconception among a lot of lower limit players and why so many people wonder why they cash so much but don't ever get that elusive win. It's because while the better players are taking gambles and slightly +ev plays exploiting the bubble they're the ones sitting back trying to get AQ to fold to their shoves when they have KK while the better players realize they have a better shot of winning if AQ calls in that spot and they win.
Sorry for the rant but I do know a few really good tourney pros and they all say that the biggest mistake they see lower-stakes players making is worrying too much about survival and being unwilling to take profitable high-variance risks.
Kasanova King
Visionary
Silver Level
I've actually cashed in close to 40% of all the live tournaments that I've played in. I've won 2 - (1st place). 2nd and 3rd in another, also chopped a few times at the final table....out of about 35 - 40 or so that I've played. The fields were always at least 100 people, some upwards of 300. The buy ins ranged from $50 - $350, so I guess they were pretty low stakes. I know that is an extremely small sample but that's just to give you an idea that I do understand the concept of live tournament poker.
Of course I would want someone to call with AQ if I was holding KK at ANY stage of the tournament. I'll take a 70/30 all day long. It's the much closer 55/45 maybe 60/40 situations I'm referring to at certain times during the tournament.
There are many variables that need to be considered, stack sizes probably the most important. I would take a 55/45 or a 60/40 at any point if I had a 2-1 (or more) chip advantage vs villain or if I had less than 20bb and I could double up. But like I said, every situation is different and when playing tournament poker, EV should only make up a part of your multi level decision making process, especially during crucial parts of the tournament.
B
bubonicplay
Rock Star
Silver Level
ok no offense but bragging about your itm% just makes no sense. roi is a much more important stat and it's not even close. Now if you have 40% itm and won 2 you likely have a solid roi but most of the best tournament players in the world don't cash in much more than 20-25% or so. It's just when they do cash they usually go very deep and the wins make up for the long breakeven stretches they can have. In fact I'd go as far as to say the players with a higher itm% are usually the worse players, although in your case it's clearly a case of running very good in the short term. Just saying don't expect to continue cashing in 40%+ of tourneys and unless you are playing against braindead morons if you do continue to cash that much ask yourself if maybe you're mincashing too much rather than cashing a bit less frequently but going deep more.
Kasanova King
Visionary
Silver Level
I've only played about 35, maybe 40 of them live so my sample is microscopic and I have cashed in at least 15 of them, that's just counting off the top of my head. Plus, the majority of the players in these things are average at best.
I don't think I ran really good, just outplayed most of the players for the most part. I'm not sure how many live tourneys you've played in but the competition is average at best. People pushing all in pre flop with AQo, things of that nature that just make you lol.
I don't plan to cash in 40% of tourney's either, I play cash games mostly for $$...tourneys are for fun. I did win 2 of them outright and came in 2nd and 3rd in two others...and final table chopped quite a few others...so even by your standards, I'm still winning about 5% of them over a very small sample and technically tying for first in several others. But whatever, my limited live tourney success has nothing to do with the topic.
M
Moneykur
Rising Star
Bronze Level
I haven't read beyond the first page of this thread, but I don't think some people realize exactly what was going on here. I think Toth was trying to bluff slowplaying trip Jacks. By raising but just calling ElkY's re-raise, Toth must have known ElkY would have put him on Queens or Jacks or something of that nature. What I would have done is place a suspiciously small bet on the flop, like a fifth of the pot. Whatever ElkY raised, I would then reraise. ElkY would probably fold. If ElkY re-re-raised, I would fold. If he called, I would assume (because of the preflop raise-athon) he didn't have pocket jacks, so I would know I'm ahead at that point but that he does have SOMETHING, probably a draw. If the hand made it to the turn, I would HAVE to bet in Toth's position to see where I'm at. If ElkY was bluffing he would HAVE to fold at that point unless he's a true maniac.
Or, Toth thought ElkY had something big (Aces or Kings) on the flop but then changed his mind halfway through.
Either way, I agree with the OP. This IS a good example of why to not be a calling station. In this game, you have to bet to get and give information. Checking all the way to the river with a high pair on the flop is just dumb. It's like straight marching to war against an enemy army of totally unknown strength lead by a notoriously crafty general who prefers guerrilla tactics (ElkY) when all you know is that your own army is slightly better than the world average.
Edit: Also, this is a good reason to never slowplay anything lower than a straight (unless you're BLUFFING a slowplay).
Or, Toth thought ElkY had something big (Aces or Kings) on the flop but then changed his mind halfway through.
Either way, I agree with the OP. This IS a good example of why to not be a calling station. In this game, you have to bet to get and give information. Checking all the way to the river with a high pair on the flop is just dumb. It's like straight marching to war against an enemy army of totally unknown strength lead by a notoriously crafty general who prefers guerrilla tactics (ElkY) when all you know is that your own army is slightly better than the world average.
Edit: Also, this is a good reason to never slowplay anything lower than a straight (unless you're BLUFFING a slowplay).
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bhood1776
Rock Star
Silver Level
Maybe a look?
I read all the messages in this thread and did not see one person comment about a big mistake, atleadt IMO. On the river all-in, and really through out the entire hand Toth never really looks at Elky. After river two small glances but no real studying of his facial expressions. Just something you have to consider in live play.
I read all the messages in this thread and did not see one person comment about a big mistake, atleadt IMO. On the river all-in, and really through out the entire hand Toth never really looks at Elky. After river two small glances but no real studying of his facial expressions. Just something you have to consider in live play.
S
Sk8surf
Enthusiast
Silver Level
lol AJ = Parkinglot
i was told this buy a buddy thats a great poker player if you want to go out of a tourny play AJ cause it = parking lot... and that was a great example of what he said lol i mean dont get me wrong he had the other guy crushed with AJ but his check let the guy stay in that hand and basicaly sealed his fate when Q turned ,which was a great turn bet cause that guy calling J vs that Q was horrible lol personally i think he should have layed that pair down but didnt only seen that one hand maybe he had read oon the other guy or something that why he made that call ouch !!! basically i think he played that AJ like a newbee poker player and just for some reason couldnt get aways from it lol i mean if the guy with 57 would have had AQ AKspades AJ is way behind so risking what ever 90% of your stack on that vs pos flush or pair Qs or set maybe possiblitys on that hand which could have cost him that huge pot without the horrible suck out !
i was told this buy a buddy thats a great poker player if you want to go out of a tourny play AJ cause it = parking lot... and that was a great example of what he said lol i mean dont get me wrong he had the other guy crushed with AJ but his check let the guy stay in that hand and basicaly sealed his fate when Q turned ,which was a great turn bet cause that guy calling J vs that Q was horrible lol personally i think he should have layed that pair down but didnt only seen that one hand maybe he had read oon the other guy or something that why he made that call ouch !!! basically i think he played that AJ like a newbee poker player and just for some reason couldnt get aways from it lol i mean if the guy with 57 would have had AQ AKspades AJ is way behind so risking what ever 90% of your stack on that vs pos flush or pair Qs or set maybe possiblitys on that hand which could have cost him that huge pot without the horrible suck out !