But you'd be missing out on a river bluff by Elky if he is holding worse. Why would want a player to fold their bad hands when you have them beat? That doesn't make a lot of sense.
No offence to marginal but you need to bet after the flop here to try to find out where you stand with top pair and top kick and a very good chance to pick up the pot right there. I understand the theory behind Elky being a loose player but I still believe there are too many scare cards (overcards) in the deck to check this flop.You are letting too many potentially goofy hands to catch up to you here.
Donk betting the flop makes no sense, it allows elky to play his hand perfectly against us.
But you'd be missing out on a river bluff by Elky if he is holding worse. Why would want a player to fold their bad hands when you have them beat? That doesn't make a lot of sense.
...In a sense, its like saying when I bet, I want all bad hands to fold and only good/better hands to call me.
Get yer shinebox.jeez, toth should have tried to get a feel of the table on the flop, his fault.
I dont understand how thats not a +ev play in a tournament.
The more chips you gain, the better chance at achieving the main goal of a tournament, to win 1st prize. If elky "gives" you the option to either win a small pot quickly eliminating any future bets, or win a huge pot by playing the hand to its maximum value... thats always the correct option. If the money truely means so much to the particular player in terms of moving up the ladder, then its a huge hinderance on your ability to play and basically cripples you, i know from experience in being in this situation before.
Also considering how many chips toth had, he isnt even eliminated if he loses the hand plus having a chance to pick off elky on a bluff and knock out him out? The value in that alone is immense in moving up the ladder.
It could be...it could also get you busted (or at least severely crippled). In that situation you would need to take a step back and evaluate everything, not just go by EV b/c you can't buy back in. Sure, if you make the proper +EV move you will win over time but you may not win that hand - and in a tournament, it's about winning the hand.
There's a balance we should be looking for here. If our goal is to win the tournament, we're going to take risks where we believe the opportunity outweighs the risk. Winning a given hand for the minimum amount (here, re-raising pf or a c/r on the flop or turn would have accomplished that) is certainly the safe route, but doesn't maximize our opportunity to win the tourney.
There's an opportunity here to take Elky's entire stack AND knock out an extremely dangerous player - if we think the risk that Elky's actually got a hand is greater than the opportunity to significantly increase our stack and knock a dangerous player out of the tournament, than certainly we should be looking to take the pot down quickly.
If we're looking to coast into the money, we could also simply fold AJ pf in Toth's spot (which is clearly what Elky wanted to happen) - I'm assuming Toth's stack is large enough to accomplish that.
I'm pretty sure Toth is playing to win the tourney, is aware of the risks and opportunities, and chooses a dangerous line that, if it pays off, puts him in a pretty commanding situation in the tourney - and, if it doesn't pay off, doesn't knock him out of the tourney either.
I agree for the most part, you do need to take risks to win and I do think Toth played it right, up until the river. At that point, he should have taken a step back and re-evaluated the situation.
I honestly think you are being a little results oriented here. The river does not really change anything.
I do not know why I continue with this hand because I/ no one hear was involved and were not there, do not know meta game etc but I continue cause I am an idiot.I think you need to be a little results oriented in tournament poker, much more so than in cash games - especially on the final table. The gutshot draw was within A.S.'s range. When A.S. shoved river, Toth needed to realize he was beat.
I do not know why I continue with this hand because I/ no one hear was involved and were not there, do not know meta game etc but I continue cause I am an idiot.
Elky's shoving range on the river is very wide, it does not only consist of made hands and the river only hits a tiny portion of it. Once he calls the turn, he cannot be folding the river here.
That argument makes perfect sense for cash games and EV.
In tournament play, especially on the final table, it does not hold water. If your opponent hits any of his outs, you are dead in the water. Tournament play at that point is indeed about taking the pot down, protecting your hand, surviving and moving on to the next hand.