detroitjunkie
Visionary
Silver Level
I love proving myself right and making those that are blind finally see, however they never seem to post anymore afterwards.....
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L0RDVAD3R
Enthusiast
Silver Level
This is true of all things in nature. But for the same reason a Squirrels doesn't go foraging for nuts on the ground more than once when theres a bush at the bottom that turns out to be a bear (consider that a bad beat); a moth will keep smashing itself into a lightbulb because it likes the light and the heat (didn't learn from 1st mistake, lost to another bad beat), then all the way to the shy Chameleon that can fade into it's surroundings,staying still for many hours (apart from a rushed pee break,then quickly returning to it's PC).before pouncing on the poor little moth that just landed.
Not a lot of meat on the bones i'll grant you, but maybe worth waiting for.
Now you're all probably wondering where the moth found the light bulb in the middle of a forrest? Obviously it flew into the one the bear had turned on,whilst doing the toilet in the bush..Never EVER go to the toilet in the dark.
The point i'm making is that there is always varience, and sometimes we play a stupid hand and our donkey wins the race too. Play any cash game for a few hours with the same people and you'll find you'll have to be a rock sometimes. Sometimes a shark and even a fish too.
Learning positional play,and card percentages will go a long way to giving you more confidence, combined with a keen intuition and study of other players at the table, and you should be winning, and according to some of the professionals its probably only going to be about 75% - 80% of the time on a perfect game (best percentage of winning based on your held hand before the flop). but that leaves only 25% for bad beats! surely it must be 50%, we'll the other 25% your winning and not losing is made up by all of the above ,and reading the other players.
Don't win a little a lot of the time. Win a lot a little of the time.
'And where do bears goto the toilet?' i hear you ask.
Just look for the glowing light bulbs in the bushes and you'll find your answer.
I should add that these statistics were based on a NLHE 9 seater table, and no Squirrels or Moths were harmed during the making of this thread.
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L0RDVAD3R
Enthusiast
Silver Level
I forgot to add though, that 2 bears were electricuted to death whilst trying to change a light bulb,
The 3rd bear did eventually manage to change the light build, suffering only 3rd degree burns to its paws and some sindged eye brows.
Which answers the other question you were all dying to ask : 'How many bears does it take to change a light bulb?'.
The 3rd bear did eventually manage to change the light build, suffering only 3rd degree burns to its paws and some sindged eye brows.
Which answers the other question you were all dying to ask : 'How many bears does it take to change a light bulb?'.
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MikeTheEngr
Enthusiast
Silver Level
2
2tuzai
Enthusiast
Silver Level
oh come on u just don`t want to call Swings variance and i don`t want to argue with an idiot........... waste of time with u here...
cwdignus
Carpe diem
Loyaler
poker are making decisions .... when taking a bad DECISION ON then shipwrecked is a matter of time .... do not answer your question .In fact I see no difference between variance or unlucky think just a matter of naming ... ..the poker is right or wrong decision every time both one and the other can give right or not
dj11
Legend
Silver Level
+1
Bad luck happens when variance has you down, yet you insist! It goes toward personal attributes. Things like your attention span, hunger level, relationship BS, mood, and a ton of other things that infringe on your mindset.
While strictly speaking, variance is hard math and in theory is flat, we all know that it sure doesn't play that way. WE have streaks. WE have expectations, hopes and dreams. Variance does not dream, it's expectations are fixed. Some will argue that Variance doesn't have streaks. (I won't make that argument).
If your mindset is off, and variance has you down, you will have bad results. We are humans, and that means we will interpret those results as bad luck.
trog081
Enthusiast
Silver Level
Best example is Stu Ungar. He was broke and his friend lend him 10k$ for wsop ticket. He won tournament. Where he suffered low bankroll or bad beat?
Those inovation in online poker are just excuse for cases when you loose too much. I played on pokerstars few months with 7-8 hour sessions and i was amazed how rng is fixed to trow out players and if they hope for another chance they ll register on other tournament or sng or what ever...
I myself did shuffle deck of cards and play with myself. only once ive got pocket kings and not need to mention that river in those 4 hours didnt once changed expected odds.
I look on online poker like on candy crush saga.
Shiny money machine but only for owners...
I make peace with myself that poker cant be played for a living if you dont have some kind of agreement with specific poker room.
Tell me im paranoic but in my experience 4 player who have pocket cards and going allin is not a matter of variance nor bad luck...
Poker is fun if you accept it that way and dont overreact and deposit too much.
Those inovation in online poker are just excuse for cases when you loose too much. I played on pokerstars few months with 7-8 hour sessions and i was amazed how rng is fixed to trow out players and if they hope for another chance they ll register on other tournament or sng or what ever...
I myself did shuffle deck of cards and play with myself. only once ive got pocket kings and not need to mention that river in those 4 hours didnt once changed expected odds.
I look on online poker like on candy crush saga.
Shiny money machine but only for owners...
I make peace with myself that poker cant be played for a living if you dont have some kind of agreement with specific poker room.
Tell me im paranoic but in my experience 4 player who have pocket cards and going allin is not a matter of variance nor bad luck...
Poker is fun if you accept it that way and dont overreact and deposit too much.
trog081
Enthusiast
Silver Level
Cant agree. what should i doo if im in position with pocket aces and BB re raise with his 92. Should i call or fold?
i have more chips then him but if he win i'll loose advantage and what happens...
Just cant resist to fold AA even if i have feeling that im going to loose...
Is online poker all about folding?
What decision would you make in such situation?
I spent at least 500$ during my play on pokerstars and i had never experienced upswing... Even asked CS to review my acc and if possible release me from black list of bad beats...
Now im playing only freerolls cause i like poker with morning coffee no matter how much rigged room is...
detroitjunkie
Visionary
Silver Level
Well if we are name calling then its the idiot that argues with someone when they have no idea what they are talking about and offer no counter arguement except calling a person dumb. Swings and the difference in variance levels are not the same. Just because something has swings does not mean the variance is higher is my point. All poker games have variance duh....just NLH is higher than PLO which is what you said was wrong. And I bet you didnt even read the article.
detroitjunkie
Visionary
Silver Level
So heres the deal.
In PLO as a favorite in most hands you are expected to win 60% of the time, so you win 6 and lose 4, thats pretty swingy as a game and is what is SUPPOSED to happen. This does not mean high variance at all, it is the norm in the game, which is why I do not consider swing as high variance.
High variance occurs when you lose more when you are supposed to be winning, and losing as an 80% favorite 3 times in a row is way worse than losing as a 60% favorite 3 times in a row. Both are variance, one is higher.
The same can be said about BB lost. In NLH you can lose way more BB on average than in PLO in more situations (usually this happens when you start out as a big favorite so the two go hand in hand) because in PLO you can control the betting more.
In PLO as a favorite in most hands you are expected to win 60% of the time, so you win 6 and lose 4, thats pretty swingy as a game and is what is SUPPOSED to happen. This does not mean high variance at all, it is the norm in the game, which is why I do not consider swing as high variance.
High variance occurs when you lose more when you are supposed to be winning, and losing as an 80% favorite 3 times in a row is way worse than losing as a 60% favorite 3 times in a row. Both are variance, one is higher.
The same can be said about BB lost. In NLH you can lose way more BB on average than in PLO in more situations (usually this happens when you start out as a big favorite so the two go hand in hand) because in PLO you can control the betting more.
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dj11
Legend
Silver Level
It used to be known as a 'Rush".. term is not used much anymore. My longest rush in the last year might be 5 hands in a row.
trog081
Enthusiast
Silver Level
What is opposite word of rush?
Thats where i fit. Sometimes i loose all my chips just to see is it possible to loose 5 consequence allins with better preflop cards then player who took all those allins no matter what card he had and he broke me. Had aprox 20k chips and he got mavebe 2-3k... was pissed off so didnt watch rest of tourney to see what will happen with him.
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nacmonkey
Enthusiast
Silver Level
EsnneyPk
Rock Star
Silver Level
Friend from my point of view bad luck there is not only the variance queen is but the randomness of the cards.
* People sometimes attribute bad luck to objects, days, or things that happened to them in days where variance has mastered.
In poker sometimes bad luck is due to the bad decisions we made at the tables.
excuse me my English
* People sometimes attribute bad luck to objects, days, or things that happened to them in days where variance has mastered.
In poker sometimes bad luck is due to the bad decisions we made at the tables.
excuse me my English
trog081
Enthusiast
Silver Level
Variance is when your tagged by poker room gestapo cause your so good at tables and they wont let you win all the time so they let you have your labour honeymoon but after that your going broke and you start to grind like rest of us prisoners!
trog081
Enthusiast
Silver Level