running bad

B

brickmason13

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patience is the name of the game at this point............
 
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trojan87

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it happens to alot but some worse than others,i quit poker online for months only playin home games cuz i wasnt doing good at all. now im fresh and ready to start up the torture again lol. im more focused this time as well as serious to not step out of bankroll management.
 
cjatud2012

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If u expect bad things to happen, than they will. Try to start thinking about positive results instead of negative outcomes.

Or, you could dispense with the idea that things happen or don't happen because of what you expect, and stick with making correct poker decisions?

ding ding ding ding

PS how is this thread still alive?
 
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David G

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Or you can stay at the table and continue to make correct poker decisions. What is a negative vibe, anyway?



Or, you could dispense with the idea that things happen or don't happen because of what you expect, and stick with making correct poker decisions?
This is sound advice for a normal downswing, even a once a year or two type of downswing.

If you've never been in the one of your life that is so foreign to anything that's even been shown or written about, I think you would have to figure something else out. It's just, hard to grasp unless you've been there, but honestly "making correct poker decisions?" will not matter, even in the long run. In fact, it's what makes you lose your stack every time because thats what the point of the game should be, getting as much money in with as much of a favorite as possible.

For the people who can not win regardless and have gone 100's of 1'000's of hands well under, it's very lonely and there just isnt much advice on what to do. Most say take a break but IDK that didn't help me so I guess the only advice I was able to figure is to try another venue, format, limit, etc. I'd also probably advise just quitting.

For the "quitting" I'm talking about the most epic of bad luck. I think one thing that hasn't been talked about much, if at all, is that in the grand scope...over even a persons life time, some people are going to run worse than others over that same sample and vice versa some people will run great over that span.

Another overlooked element is timing of winnings/losses. This is especially true for a tournament player but if a cash game player played stakes that were 1-10 times difference, it could def affect them too. It's possible to run "even" or "correct" over a huge sample and still have much different results. To keep it simple, the guy who loses the 80-20 on the final table bubble of the wsop main event can run exactly the same as the guy who won the 20-80, but the difference in result is obviously gonna be huge.

Now that's an extreme example because I wanted to make the point stand out and be simple but imagine scenarios like that but over huge samples where some guys, although they are running exactly as they should in the long run, have lost more of the pots that didn't have as much meaning but won more of the "meaningful" ones.

This truly stands out in tournament poker but like I said, it's possible to happen in cash as well. Examples would be winning 4 out of 5 80-20's when people were all in for 5 BB's but losing the 80-20 that was a 200bb pot. Also, it's possible to run worse at one limit and better at another so this all affects results.

It's a shame there's no real way to gauge this and quantify it but this is why I say, for a person who is literally in a foriegn downswing of many many hands and many many months, it may be decent advice to advise quitting. Either way it's an uncomfortable topic, I love this game as many others do and talking about quitting is like talking about death but even though extreme cases are rare, it would be nice to have resources of advice a person suffering from a rare occurrence could gather info from.
 
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David G

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Actually, I'm not sure but I guess a tracker could help "gauge" some of that. I know they have an all in ev feature (which is limited though and can give flawed perspectives) and I know for cash it will count the amount of money in the pot and apply it but for tournaments I think it just counts the stack size without applying a monetary value to the actual cost of real $$ you lost.

I mean this can go much much further as well obviously. Another example would be the implied odds of future possible money made in endorsements etc, using the "wsop main event" example above where the guy lost an 80-20 on the final table bubble. No one's going to care or remember how the guy in tenth went out but regardless of how lucky the guy who won the hand might have been, if he goes on to with the tournament that will be the only thing that will be remembered and by magnitudes. Imagine for a second this affect trickling down all the way to like 400th place. Surely there's someone who could have one the tournament had he survived a certain hand, or likewise, someone who did when he was at risk with 400 players left and went on to win. The implications of timing, while pretty much unmeasurable, can be epic.

T.J. Cloutier comes to mind. A fantastic tournament player in his prime and if Chris Ferguson didn't hit the 3 outer on the river HU in their main event, one can wonder about lots of stuff. That may not be the best example of "timing" but we all know Chris F went on to a high profile and ownership in FTP and invites to invite only super tournaments with money added and T.J. pawned one of his bracelets at the local pawn shop.

Anyway, I think there's a ton to timing and it's an almost uncovered topic.
 
TheNoob

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If you've never been in the one of your life that is so foreign to anything that's even been shown or written about, I think you would have to figure something else out. It's just, hard to grasp unless you've been there, but honestly "making correct poker decisions?" will not matter, even in the long run. In fact, it's what makes you lose your stack every time because thats what the point of the game should be, getting as much money in with as much of a favorite as possible.

All good points.

My .02.

That's what the point of the game IS. Making correct poker decisions in the
long run is the ONLY thing that matters.

Even in the apocalyptic downswing you
describe (and every player will see sooner or later), the only possible thing to do is to continue to play well. Variance for the good player dictates that for
every suicide inducing downswing, there is a heater the likes of which will have you giggling like a little girl. (numerous internet point are avaialable to
those that are able to giggle like a little girl during the downswings).

If you are playing within your bankroll, it is very, very unlikely that you will go broke even in the worst of downswings.

The only way to truly make a profit in poker is to play correctly and play
for the long term. The ups and downs (even the BIG downs) don't mean anything other than a test of your ability to keep tilt from affecting your
decision making.

For anyone who is interested, there is some good reading on how to
handle "running bad" in The Poker Mindset. I think it's a good book and
has some interesting information on what the game of poker actually is
and how a good player can beat it.
 
Roller

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Poker is about making the correct situational decisions.

Sounds Simple.


:banghead: :banghead: :banghead:
 
NOLA Red

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There will most definitely be times where you think you're the unluckiest player in the world, internet poker is rigged and they've thrown the doomswitch on you. It's always nice to have someone or something to blame. Unfortunately, the truth is not so nice and easy. :)

You can gain SOME comfort in the fact that these downswings happen to everybody occasionally. They survive and you will too as long as you approach it calmly and with a plan. Worse thing you can do come back with a knee jerk reaction to your playing style. However, that doesn't mean that you can't tuneup your style/strategy.

If you're normally a TAG player then don't, for instance, change your starting hand requirements that drastically. You may want to look at opening up your range somewhat according to your position for example. Look at what types of hands you're playing on the button, in the cutoff, with limpers in front-look at whether you are taking advantage of all your opportunities. Are you maximizing the seemingly few and far between winning hands you ARE getting?

My basic point here is that if you're in the middle of a losing streak don't panic. Use the time to stand back and take a look at how you can add to your knowledge base about leaks in your game. Take a break, step down in stakes and put those new revelations into practice. Repeat and rinse.
 
blueskies

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I am on a swing right now where I have lost almost every hand with AK in the last two weeks that has gone to showdown. It's actually pretty wild. J5, 85, AJ, KJ. You name it. One time I did run into KK, and I deserved to lose that one.

I went in ahead and lost them all. The dudes with 85, J5 called with bottom pair and both hit their outs on the river (8 and 5)

A few mins ago I was AK vs. AJ all in pre again. The dude flops a J (of course), but I caught a 10 to make a str on the river to win.

Should I feel lucky in that last hand? Or unlucky?

I don't really know why, but my luck has been terrible since I went back to FT. I play at Carbon normally but I went back to FT for various reasons.
---
Just got screwed again. Set of Js. All in. He calls with a draw. Hits the str on the river.
 
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blueskies

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Lost with AK again. This time vs. K10.

An A hits on the river. Gives me top pair, but him a str.

I lost just a pot sized bet here, but it's not funny anymore. I laughed the first few off, but after about 10 of these, it's not right.
 
T

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if u sat at a ring game and u only played 2 hands in 60 then i think your playin to tight a game,,,lower your startin hands slightly ,,,du some theivin on button with any 2 cardsraise an always lead out on utton no matter wat flops
 
Poker Orifice

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Lost with AK again. This time vs. K10.

An A hits on the river. Gives me top pair, but him a str.

I lost just a pot sized bet here, but it's not funny anymore. I laughed the first few off, but after about 10 of these, it's not right.

posts like this ^ are turning this thread into a derail imo. If you read thru OP's orig. post, I think you'll see a big difference (or.. maybe you won't?)
 
Poker Orifice

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if u sat at a ring game and u only played 2 hands in 60 then i think your playin to tight a game,,,lower your startin hands slightly ,,,du some theivin on button with any 2 cardsraise an always lead out on utton no matter wat flops

Not quite sure how this ^ is relevant? (also... would suggest it's bad advice at best).
 
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David G

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Well, it's been over 5 months now. I had what felt like a "break" earlier, but it only lasted one or two days and it may have been skewed by just the fact that I had been used to running so bad that it felt like a dream to win some of the hands that I was way ahead in.

I have to quit. It pains me. I gave a good amount of 20 years of my life to this game and I have a deep love of the game that has solidified through ll that time. I gave this more than enough chance, but I'm not going to regret it as I was only doing what I thought was right, and that was trying to play through this, regardless of the fact that I was in foreign, uncharted territory.

Only bumping this thread as a courtesy to someone, like me, who may be searching the internet for advise and information on this type of running bad, I did.

Because I've given so much of myself to this game, I'm going to try live or possibly another site. It's hard to accept that I'm just some random anomaly but I can say I'm closer to accepting that and it will make this change in direction a little easier to ingest.

This is not a "bad beat", it happens a lot actually and is very common. After having this exact scenario happen so many times I can't count anymore (it happens almost daily, and I play every day) I just want to post a final hand and add another feww 1,000 to the lost ev pile. This one was 13.5k for first, I have roughly 100k in lost ev in just the last 5 months, and I'm only a small stakes/mid stakes player.

Full Tilt Poker Game #29575639129: $64,000 Rush Guar (Rebuy) (229699435), Table 974 - 10000/20000 Ante 2500 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:21:05 ET - 2011/04/02
Seat 1: 4StefanRaab (1,177,741)
Seat 2: 8Stevie (2,154,332)
Seat 3: fabtel (642,846)
Seat 4: PrinskorvFC (636,872)
Seat 5: BigStikk (1,101,960)
Seat 6: WilliJJ6996 (1,945,350)
Seat 7: degetzel (847,351)
Seat 8: RoadBlock74 (829,056)
4StefanRaab antes 2,500
8Stevie antes 2,500
fabtel antes 2,500
PrinskorvFC antes 2,500
BigStikk antes 2,500
WilliJJ6996 antes 2,500
degetzel antes 2,500
RoadBlock74 antes 2,500
8Stevie posts the small blind of 10,000
fabtel posts the big blind of 20,000
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RoadBlock74 [Ad Ac]
PrinskorvFC folds
BigStikk folds
WilliJJ6996 folds
degetzel raises to 44,000
RoadBlock74 has 15 seconds left to act
RoadBlock74 raises to 110,000
4StefanRaab folds
8Stevie folds
fabtel folds
degetzel has 15 seconds left to act
degetzel raises to 844,851, and is all in
RoadBlock74 calls 716,556, and is all in
degetzel shows [Kh Ks]
RoadBlock74 shows [Ad Ac]
Uncalled bet of 18,295 returned to degetzel
*** FLOP *** [6h 5d Kd]
*** TURN *** [6h 5d Kd] [2d]
*** RIVER *** [6h 5d Kd 2d] [Qs]
degetzel shows three of a kind, Kings
RoadBlock74 shows a pair of Aces
degetzel wins the pot (1,703,112) with three of a kind, Kings
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1,703,112 | Rake 0
Board: [6h 5d Kd 2d Qs]
Seat 1: 4StefanRaab (button) folded before the Flop
Seat 2: 8Stevie (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 3: fabtel (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 4: PrinskorvFC folded before the Flop
Seat 5: BigStikk folded before the Flop
Seat 6: WilliJJ6996 folded before the Flop
Seat 7: degetzel showed [Kh Ks] and won (1,703,112) with three of a kind, Kings
Seat 8: RoadBlock74 showed [Ad Ac] and lost with a pair of Aces
The winner of the hand went on to chopping the tournament for 11,800.00 in less than 30 mins later. I finished 25th for 11,578.26 less then him. It is what it is and for whatever reason I can not win those hands. It's the only thing that separates "good" players from "great" players imo and it's time I just resign to my fate, as depressing as that sounds. Great players win those types of hands, or at least one of them in 20, where even one changes their overall results 2 fold or more.

I do want to say I'm looking forward to getting on with life. I would have liked to have poker in my life, and I always planned on it being there and prepared hard to keep it there. Unfortunately, there are going to be rare cases just because of the way randomness works and there will be some that run under expectation, for even a lifetime.

If my posts here can do anything, I hope they save those very few people from any unnecessary hardship. I know all too well how hard it is to quit this game, especially if you have a love for it. If you show similar signs though, quit the game and move on. Let me be an example of time lost and heartache spent. Don't do what I did, life is too precious.

gl guys
 
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moneybagz718

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yea when drawing dead you neede to focus more on the table and analyze the players so when you do get good cards you can play them to the best of your abilty against the people in your tale
 
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That's about the only thing I can think of, switching rooms. Unfortunately I can't do that right now.

Finally searching the internet for advice, I found this and registered here. I'm a reg at another huge poker forum but I can't ask for advice there because everyone has to be an asshole first off, but also no one understands and this is such a lonely, frustrating, even depressing situation to be in.

It seems most people complain of running bad for a few days, or even a few hours/hands. I'm in a really bad way guys, it's been 3 months.

It's not running bad, it's something else. No one understands. I'm having no trouble getting my money in great, over and over. I can be honest with myself and if it was that the game has just passed me by and I'm not a good player I would quit. Even if I didn't quit, I def wouldn't be playing for a living like now.

I can not win 80/20's and 70/30's. I've tried to figure out a way I can beat the game when running bad and I just can't see it. The only thing I can think of is if people don't call, but I can't always control that and the other problem is it's hard to make any meaningful amount of chips or money when you don't get the other persons chips or money in the pot.

This is so so sick guys. I'm a 36 year old male, not gay or overly sensitive by any means and this has brought me to tears a few times. I'm just so screwed and beyond any front line or even midterm emotions. I've ran the gauntlet of anger, sadness, depression, "why me" etc etc and I'm just...I don't know.

I've taken many breaks, one even 8-9 days long.

I don't know what to say guys but just say your prayers. Know how blessed you are to run even, not good, just even. I would trade any possibility of ever running good again just to run even. The games are good and are still beatable, but it's a sick feeling when you realize, and not just for a moment and then get bailed out, but you realize day after day, week after week, that you will NEVER beat the game unless you win your hands, or at least over 50% of them, that you've worked so hard to get into a dominating position.

You can't control the outcome. All you can do is get yourself in 80/20's and 70/30's, that's about as good as it get's in NLHE and if you win under half of those...I've yet to figure out a way a person can ever beat the game.

Really wish there was someone else. It's discouraging to see people only discussing running bad for days. Maybe people quit by before they get where I am, idk, what I do know is I could really use some advice or at least a thread where someone has gone through similar and maybe came out of it or something.

Anyway, wall of text obv, but guys PLEASE realize how blessed you are to win every hand you do. Do not ever take anything for granted. After almost 20 years in this game I thought I've seen it all, this is something that is completely foreign. I've ran bad many times in the past, very long stretches of the improbable becoming the probable, this is beyond that :(
I completely understand your pain. I was on a terrible run not too long ago. I lost my buy ins with all sorts of 70-30+ situations. And to add insult to injury, my friend at the table next to me hitting the bad beat jackpot. Yes, i go bust on a near $200 pot that i went all in on the flop as a 87% favorite on and my friend hits the bad beat 20 minutes later.

you just have to realize it is variance and you are making the right play and are a long term winner. Never feel good about going in even money or as an underdog and winning, it is fools gold and you are a fool to be happy that you made a bad play and got lucky and won. You are as bad as the players who caused you the pain of your bad run by going in against you as a 20-80 underdog when you do that. I make the right play knowing im getting at least 65-35 odds every time, and when i lose i say thanks to my opponent for making the bad play (i dont really tell them "thanks" that would be insulting and phil helmuth-like).

Now as of recent i am finally out of my funk. I still hit bad beats but who doesnt? i put the money in good every time knowing i will win way more than i lose, and just hope the pots im losing aren't huge compared to the ones im winning (now that would be bad luck).
 
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David G

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Hey guys,

Revisiting this thread after all the developments since black friday and I can't help but wonder if there was something wrong with my account/and or something wrong with Full Tilt. Once this started about 11 months before they closed down, it never ceased for me. I don't believe it's a sample size issue as I played almost every day and 1,000's of hands each session. I can say both another network I tried after BF and live have been nothing like what happened on FTP for my last 11 months there. I'm happy to say I somehow survived this but it wasn't without much tribulation. Words can't explain how frustrating and trying this bad run was on FTP for that final year. It spread into much more than just poker playing, it affected my confidence, game, everything.

There's never been any proof shown that FTP marked accounts or manipulated results, and I've never been one to think that, but there have been signs that they had many questionable business practices and combined with the unlikelihood of what happened to me, it does at least make me wonder and was enough to seek help auditing and analyzing my run there. . Although an audit of my hands from this 11 months prove I ran magnitudes under expectation, it was 3 standard deviations from the mean so a statistical possibility (bottom 97%). However, because I was playing tournaments during this time there's a possibility that things could be skewed while lying within statistical probability. Meaning, the hands you win and lose could have completely different meanings to outcome. I grabbed at this a little in an earlier post when I was trying to express how a person could be statistically winning and losing hands within possibility, but that some hands carry much more importance for end results and making money in tournaments.

For example, I could have aces hold up 4 times against a smaller pocket pair early in a tournament or with someone all in for only a blind, and then lose holding aces against a pair in 10th place for the chip lead size pot in a tournament that pays thousands of dollars for each spot you move up. Obviously the aces held up 4/5 times like they should, but had they won in a different order, like losing one of the small meaningless pots and winning the one in 10th, it can have a grave affect on results.

So, I know that I ran really bad, but again it's within possibility. However, it was still so unlikely that it's hard to accept (maybe the why me type of thing) and again with all that's come out from the closing of FTP and taking consideration of previous sites that have shown to manipulate results of their players, I can't help but wonder if FTP "flagged" my account to affect my results while keeping within 3 standard deviations of the mean. Like, picking and choosing which hands I win and when.

Either way I'm only putting any thought into this right this second. The rest of the time, and in the future, I'm happy to say I've moved on from this whole episode and although it's something that had a profound affect on me at the time, it does not have an affect on me now. However, I do look forward to a more tightly regulated and monitored market. While I wish we didn't have to have a Gov entity get involved to assure us of that, it seems to be the only way to really get there, so I'm looking forward to that day. In the mean time I've put online play on the back burner and although there's little choices these days for Americans anyway, I do have some choice but for now I've chosen not play online in its current form and am sticking to live.

Hope everyone else is running close to the mean and health and other stuff outside of poker is well. Best in all things,

David
 
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David G

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Not letting this go until it changes. I'm now over a year. After a stint playing live, 3 months (-6k) I'm back online. Here's my first month at PLO50-PLO100. I finally downloaded HEM for myself and although it's far from perfect for quantifying how bad you're running, it at least has one statistic that tells a part of the story: All in EV.

Even though there's a whoooole lot more to it, I know, at minimum, I'm down 30+ 100BB buy ins since I started back online.



I'm to a point where I'm almost mental about it and will never quit. I say "mental" because no one in their right mind would still be playing, and most of the time I find myself crazily laughing and almost enjoying the pain anymore. I still have my moments of depression etc, but it's just been so long now, and over so many hands, it's just a part of me and I don't know anything else.

I will update this thread weather ir changes or not, because I refuse to believe I'm the only person in the world that runs bad for longer than a couple months and there needs to be at least something for that person when they go to search, like I did a long time ago.

Back to it, regards- David
 

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TheKAAHK

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David, maybe poker just isn't for you.

FTP is and was not rigged in any way against you. The cards are coming your way but you are somehow unable to utilize them.

If you truly want to win money at poker you simply need to get better. Otherwise you are wasting a lot of your time and money on something that is obviously starting to cause you mental distress.

I read in one of your earlier posts about going crazy because you couldn't find a way to "beat the game". That's your problem. In poker, you don't beat the game, you beat the player. If you have studied hard and dedicated the hours and hours of self analysis necessary to be a winning player at a level where it is more than just recreational players and low payouts and still can't make it happen, then maybe you should find another past time to blow your money on.

Or at the very least move down a few levels until you can get your shit together.
 
billyjustin

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no cards after 60 hands, that isn't really all that much. If you get a bad feeling of the table, or just feel like you can't hang, then yeah, switch. but if you are just card dead, i say hang in there and wait it out. doesn't sound like running bad though, not in the least
 
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budebuzz

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Of course switch tables, take a break etc but you will always have to take advantage of position no mater what cards you are delt so in 60 hands you can probably come up with at least 3 chances to bet out and win with ATC, not saying you will win those just have to taks a stab at them. I think playing loose just as a general statement is not good unless the table is real tight and you have a tight immage at that point. You need to have a plan on how you attack the table regardless of the cards, what position and what players you are working with.
 
Roller

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,Switch Tables Switch Days Switch Weeks.
The point is if your runnning Card Dead then step away and play another time. It seems most often that it follows the player (makes no sence and has no logic to it) not the table not the poker site of choice.
Play Razz where poor hands are rewarded.
:)
 
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ph0n3_j4ck

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There are many ways to play against a dead deck. But you are right, tightening up is definitely the best way to combat a dead deck :(
 
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dan abnormal

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I dunno if you only played 1 or 2 hands and suddenly you wake up and want to play, I aint giving no action. I hope we are talking ring game here but there had to be something playable you had to get, connectors suited connectors gapped connectors, AXs It might be the limits I play, but most hands I can limp in cheap if not the most desirable starting hand and see. I aint saying everytime, but dang 60 hands 2 plays. But i dunno at higher levels maybe its smarter to just wait and wait. But from what I read about cash games as opposed to MTT's, you can open up the range in ring a little more becasue you can always rebuy (but of course Mike MAtusow threw out this great advice now I gotta rethink this)

FWIW - AA has busted me out or crippled me very bad in 5 straight MTTS now on different networks. WHile it used to bother me, now I just kind of laugh and say, well you didnt expect aces to win. Didnt mattered if I slow played or just pushed AI PF and then you sit and think. i folded all those other hands for this hand to save me
 
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dan abnormal

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Hmm as usual I seemed to have read teh thread wrong, so my response above probably doesnt even fit here
 
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