Poker, Skill or Luck? what %

[SavagePenguin]

Short term, 85% luck, 15% skill.
Long term, 1% luck, 99% skill.

When I wrote this, by "long term" I was thinking over the course of a year. I agree with Zach, that over time luck gets closer to 0.

The more you play, the more your skill advantage has a chance to present itself.

Let's say you had a slightly bent coin that, because of the distortion, caused it to land on heads 51% of the time and tales 49% of the time. When it landed on heads you get $1. When it lands on tales, you pay $1.
If you flip that coin 50 times today, luck is a big influence on whether or not you make any $ today. Winning or losing $4 is very possible. IE, luck is a big factor.

Now, if you flip that bent coin 50 times a day for one year, that's 18,250 flips. You will most likely have a $182 profit at the end of the year. It is very unlikely that you will lose money.

If you flip the coin 50 times per day for 20 years, your advantage has a chance to work 365,000 times. You will most likely have around $3,650 in profit. The chances of being a loser over that period are incredibly low.

The more flips you make, the closer to 0 your chance of being a loser become and the more likely you are to have the bankroll that reflects your skill advantage.

I believe that a good player has better than a 1% advantage over the average player. A good playing will likely play more than 100 hands per day, and will come a heck of a lot more than 100 decisions.

 

[vixenx78]

This is like the age old question what came first the chicken or the egg..,.
i have always said that poker is 85% luck 15% skill, because
1) Position of play
2) Cards dealt
3) People on the table
4) cards that hit the table
Yes we all know what cards are good, and what cards are our favourite hands but NO one knows what cards will be dealt to each as hole cards and NO one knows what cards will hit the table.
It will always be more luck than skill, but you do need skill to play.
But without the poker gods, lady luck and the felt on your side, your skill means nothing...
So its MORE luck than skill, but without skill why are u sitting at the table?

 

[mitchel123]

i think it's fifty-fifty
you have to get the cards but you have to play smart too.
without any strategy you dont win

 

[turtlerox]

sure you need some skill to know what are u doing but i think that the most important in poker is luck! i am lucky when i hit bluffers!lololololol

 

[N.D.]

Guys, skill isn't crazy glued to getting good cards! Someone was mentioning an ad that asks if it's a coincidence that there are so many familiar faces at final tables. If those familiar faces relied solely on getting good to great cards, they wouldn't make it to the final table. Skill isn't just knowing what to do when you've got the nuts, it's knowing what to do when you don't. Knowing when to fold without a winning hand, but conversely, knowing when you can win with a losing hand, and doing so.

Arguably, the pros, and not just the big name ones, have honed their skills to a higher level than the average player. Add natural talent and you've got consistent winners.

Look at Phil Ivey. His bluffs are beautiful. I love watching him push a player who's in the same stratosphere as his off of the better hand. Sometimes he'll do it, and it works, and I can't figure out how it works. The board doesn't show any obvious hands that will beat his opponent's, but he takes the pot anyway, and it's a sizable pot. He's thinking four moves ahead and several hands ahead at the same time. The guy's a genius. Oh and I guess it doesn't hurt that he's capitalizing on his image. Good for him, but that's only one example of skill, I mean sometimes the skill's in the fold, and there are oh so many other examples, and I'll stop now because I'm rambling like an old man with Tourette's and Alzheimer's.

 

[jaymfc]

with poker as with life the more I learn the luckier I get jmo

 

[SavagePenguin]

"Luck" encompasses too much to be definable, as it takes skill to know when to rely on luck.

In a tournament, there will be optimal times to shove pre-flop, even if you know you're an underdog. That is, skill lets you choose the optimal points to get lucky.
There's a huge difference between "Bubba" shoving pre-flop with his Ah Kh on the button early in a tournament, and me shoving pre-flop with 5h 6h in middle position because my M is 5, and the pot is unchallenged, and there are only middle stacks yet to act, and we're close to the bubble.
Should Bubba get called, he will probably be in a coin flip situation. Should I get called, I will probably be a 2:1 underdog. Even with a worse position and worse cards, my play is substantially better than his.

So if we both get called by As Qs and we both lose, which of us got unluckiest? Even though he lost when the other guy was only 27% to win and I lost when the other guy was 60% to win I'd say that I was substantially unluckier. I was making the proper move for that situation and my opponant happened to have run into a hand. Bubba was making an improper move, exposing himself to unnecessary risk.

Skill and luck are combined in so many decisions that it's difficult (if not impossible) accurately seperate the two.

But what it comes down to is that the odds never change. The odds of any particular card hitting the board are the same for everyone. Luck offers nobody an advantage. So while luck is stronger than skill, over the long term it's a level playing field. The more you play, the more level/fair that field becomes. As a level playing field, skill is really the only factor that matters.

 

[Pilotfb59]

I believe it is 75% skill and 25% luck you have to know how to play the cards you are dealt

 

[Stu_Ungar]

I found this, I'm not sure if it will help

 

[sharpone]

everything is different now

If you would have asked me this question 2 years ago i would have answered skill indefinately. But now with the boom of poker on the mainstream and the vast amount of weak players and variance, i have to lean more towards luck. I have been on a bad run for what feels like years, so to be honest any responses by me has been tainted to the highest degree, and i think its all luck which is unfortunate for the game of holdem and its future.

 

[turtlerox]

yes,of course,the skill is important too but the most important i think is luk,mayybbe even more than 80%

 

[TheUndertaker]

I think in online poker it's about 45%luck-55%skill and live poker it's about 85%skill-15%luck.This is just my opinion.

 

[JaBone30]

I dont know what the % r but they seem 0 luck and 0 skill as of late for me. LOL

 

[JaBone30]

Seems about right

I think in online poker it's about 45%luck-55%skill and live poker it's about 85%skill-15%luck.This is just my opinion.

On the regular though I would tend to agree with this guy though.

 

[unlucky79]

Pretty sad people still ask this question. My only gues is this was oroginally posted by someone who is new to the game. 80% Skill 20% luck is my call on things though I really cant say thats exact. I play the players not the cards so on a good day poker is mostly skill when my reads are correct. All I can say is to anyone who is new patience is the key and timed aggression. The reads come in time and thousands of hands played. Some people never aquire the true skill of reading a hand and breaking down all the math and in turn betting someone off the pot. Poker is a game of winnings longterm never short term. Anyone who plays and criticizes the game more then likely has no skill to play to begin with and are in the negative on there roi. Anyways best of luck all!!!

 

[N.D.]

Pretty sad people still ask this question. My only gues is this was oroginally posted by someone who is new to the game. 80% Skill 20% luck is my call on things though I really cant say thats exact. I play the players not the cards so on a good day poker is mostly skill when my reads are correct. All I can say is to anyone who is new patience is the key and timed aggression. The reads come in time and thousands of hands played. Some people never aquire the true skill of reading a hand and breaking down all the math and in turn betting someone off the pot. Poker is a game of winnings longterm never short term. Anyone who plays and criticizes the game more then likely has no skill to play to begin with and are in the negative on there roi. Anyways best of luck all!!!

You've been here for two years and only just now found this thread, and you think it's sad that people still ask what percentage of the game is luck vs. skill? Two years, and only just now finding a thread that was really hot when it was first posted.

I'm not about to attack your spelling lest someone else attack my grammar, but, poker is not solely a game of long term winnings. You say never short term, but I say - never say never.

Allow me to explain. Not too long ago in his video blog, Daniel Negreanu shared that he was trying the Chris Ferguson Challenge. He was saying how turning nothing into thousands of dollars is so baller(how the hell do u spell it?). I say if the challenge is good enough for Daniel it's good enough for everyone, and there are lessons to be learned. Let's approach this mathematically shall we? I'm mega-crap at math so I'll probably be off by a few percent. Oh and it's a word problem. Hope those aren't too tricky for you.

Chris is a very good poker player. He can push a bankroll of $0 up to $10,000 within a year. If he only plays according to his own rules for buy-ins, how much of his $10,000 is won through luck? How much of it is earned through skill?

Answer: 100% through luck.

Now you can do a double take and tell me I'm bat-$hit crazy for thinking it was all through luck. You're wrong I'm right. Why? Because he had to get started somehow. Without initial luck he would never have built a large enough bankroll to withstand downswings + allow him to use his skills. Short term luck, long term skill, the end.

 

[Poker Orifice]

Interesting.... now I've got something to add to what was just said above here. Take Boku87, turning $100 into $10,000 in just 15days and never being allowed to enter anything higher than a $16buyin sng.
Now is that 'luck'.. or 'skill'.. and what percentages of each??????

I'd say if you suck at poker, then it's 80% luck and 20% skill (or 90/10). If you have alot of experience but are playing online in a tourney or sng on the weekend.... I don't care how much skill you've got, if you're not lucky then you're going to get real unlucky, lol (I HATE THE WEEKENDS!!!!).

 

[N.D.]

I'd say if you suck at poker, then it's 80% luck and 20% skill (or 90/10). (I HATE THE WEEKENDS!!!!).

Again, I suck at math, but that doesn't look right. If it's 80% luck and 20% skill, shouldn't it be 80/20? Wouldn't 90/10 be 90% luck and 20% skill?

Yeah I'm that bad at math.

 

[Poker Orifice]

Again, I suck at math, but that doesn't look right. If it's 80% luck and 20% skill, shouldn't it be 80/20? Wouldn't 90/10 be 90% luck and 20% skill?

Yeah I'm that bad at math.

.... 90% / 20%.. lolz the 80/20 >> 90/10 was a range obv.

Here's some odds & probablities for ya if you're a weekend player. "what's the odds of my SC flopped flush draw hitting a flush by the river?"
Well that's easy... usually during the weekdays that's approx. 35% but on the weekend it's safe to say it's closer to 75% so you an easy favourite to win the hand... by all means call off all your stack to your opponent's flop check-raise shove.
"Okay but what are the odds of me hitting it with just the river to come?"
Well you have to consider stack sizes and implied odds here as well.. ah but why bother, you KNOW you're the favourite, especially if only on an OESD,... so by all means, call of the rest of your stack when the pot's giving you less than 3 to 1 cuz again you are most likely to win the hand!!
Weekends... grrrrrr......

 

[N.D.]

I own that I'm bad at math. I not only own it, I make typos when asking questions about it, thus negating my questions. Still, I'm baffled by how it's 80%/20%. If you're going by the 90/10 rule, yeah I googled, well shouldn't it still be 90%/10%?

One more question, and yeah I know we don't get along because I'm not a big fan of your precious. Anyway, why should your odds change on the weekends?

I don't call myself a weekday or weekend player, just an amateur who's happy to be one and willing to learn more, not in some silly attempt to go pro, but rather in a silly attempt to improve.

 

[CostyBigRoyal09]

I think mostly you need luck ... less talent! dupa parerea in percentages so I think you should have taken 80% luck 20% skill!

 

[Show838]

SKILL100%

you need skillz to be lucky no matter what, luck is a part of poker???so it takes skillz to be able to battle through the bad luck and make it ////in the final table is all that matters and to get there its all skillz!100!

 

[leon818]

i would say 70% luck 30% skill for online poker, and 55% luck 45 % skill for live player.

 

[j_unatrix]

The good poker players make thier own luck. Skill plus discipline are two key qualities that you need to be a good player. If you have more skill than the players you are playing against and the discipline to manage your bankroll correctly luck really is not an issue. In the short term it may feel like luck is against you sometimes but if you gain the experience you will understand and be knowlegable that long term this game is definitely a skill game.
After just typing this all I come back to this part to say the rest is not 100% on topic just a bit on me that as I wrote in my head I wish some good people would care to read, thank you.
I must say of all my post this is by far the best in my honest opinion, I am an aspiring player when my head is straight and everything is in check for me I usually am the best player at the table. When I allow outside influences to distract my game or a bad swing to affect my decision making whether it be game selection hand selection or what have you then I am just like any other loosing player. Nobody said poker was easy but I know in my mind that the players who really want to win, the players who are confident, the players who like what they are doing, the players who are strong and mature are players who and can even "should" be succesful poker players. Things in my life have not been so smooth recently I know people have much tougher things going on for them and tougher lives and I really wish them all the best but I now understand that for a lesser experienced player poker is a game you should only play when you are in a totally good focused mind set and you "want" to play it. My last deposit I made online I had made it 750% higher in a quick amount of time. At the time my bankroll was at that point some things in my life made me feel really down and just also really frustrated and I played when I shouldnt have been. I ran really bad at that time and with my head not on striaght I made a silly decision to move up in stakes and try to recoup my losses now the game was not any harder for me I knew I could beat it but i continuous ran bad because of short time variance and what have you. I even checked some of the major hands I lost online, was the favorite in every one of them some by a large margin but I understand that either way it was too much of a risk for my bankroll. Time has passed and I am about ready to start over again the right way I nearly have all my confidence back and I know the skills are there, hopefully I can keep my focus my discipline and grow a large bankroll to help support myself and everyone in this great time of need.
thanks and I wish the best of "luck" to everyone

 

[Kasanova King]

Live Poker Play: 25% Math, 25% Psychology, 25% luck, 25% guts/balls

Online Play (Depending on the limits, of course) but on average:

50% Math, 30% Luck, 15% Psychology, 5% guts/balls