poker players overestimate the skill factor in their play

[ovitoo]

I would say poker is 80% luck and 20% skill. but that 20% is crucial. And the better question to ask yourself would be, "what knowledge and skills makes me so much better than the other people at my table?" The answer is usually little to nothing.
The problem with poker is not that big mistakes will invariably wipe you out. The problem lies wherein you consistently make solid decisions, yet are still going broke in the process.

+1 but if you're making solid decisions, that would generally mean you're gii good or playing good odds so this could only be problematic in short. Doing this will always be profitable in the long haul.

 

[sam1chips]

"In all-skill-but-no-luck games, Team 1 always beat Team 2, and Team 2 always beats Team 3 and so on."

This is also a flawed scenerio, because it doesn't account for people or teams having "off days" or the other team learning and improving and winning a game against the better player or team every now and then. How many times have we've seen the obviously best NFL team have an off day and lose against the inferior team that year? Even the absolute best lose from time to time.

IMO, there is no such thing as a 'pure-skill game', the same way that poker is not a 'pure-skill game'. NFL is not a pure skill game, you need a little but of luck for things to go your way sometimes, and that's why there are upsets and inferior teams beating superiors teams on any given day.

 

[ovitoo]

^^^Packers/Seahawks reference lol

 

[sam1chips]

^^^Packers/Seahawks reference lol

haha yeah absolutely.

 

[dj11]

not 80/20, maybe 60/40 with either being the 60 on any given hand....

 

[mrmonkey]

No, I'd actually agree with 80/20. If you consider that the house edge in American roulette is only 5.6% and that is is one of the worst table games in terms of odds in the player's favor, a 20% edge in poker due to skill is actually a very large edge indeed.

The problem comes in that people underestimate how long the long term really is, as well as it being very difficult as previously mentioned in determining just how much of an edge you have against your opponents. casinos have no issue with this because they are taking tens of millions of bets a year with things like slots and table games, in addition to rake games like poker. While you do have your few online poker grinders putting in 5+ hours a day everyday and putting in 1+ million hands a year in online poker, the vast majority of players are probably lucky to get in a few hundred thousand hands a year.

 

[ledoormat530]

i love this topic, because as stated above , there is no right answer, truth be told, you can make the best reads ( how many times i have said in my own head) he has only this or that, an to be correct, only to have him suck out on you. In those instances people will say " i was unlucky " in reality that is the part of the game that separates the skilled read from the unskilled, sure you will a pot where you are 80/20 favorite, but probability is probability, and somewhere down the road 4/5 times you will win, so people dont cry about the bad beats, they are what keeps the chasers chasing, as the old saying goes, " you cant win them all" .

 

[gus201]

I am surprised no one has commented on this. I would be eager to see what people do here.

1000BB behind and he has us covered...wow. How many entrants? Bubble must be still a long ways away. (We must be running like Jesus to have 1000BB after 100 hands).

We have 83-86% equity depending on his range, we are so far ahead that I guess calling is hard to resist. I know that there is a thought process that would go "If I call and lose, I lose the chance to exploit the other bad players" But I dont see letting and 80+% chance go of doubling up here something I could do. I am also not the strongest MTT player, so the extra chips would make my chance to FT so much bigger that I could not NOT call. A very good player might chose to fold, if most players have stacks in the 100-200 range, simply cause his edge is so great vs the entire player pool, that he may not want to give that edge up so early, even as a better than 4:1 fave, IDK.

Ok first off why would you want to open the betting by reraising this player he will shove . you know that you dont have a made hand so reraising will only get you to put more chips in . calling here will get you a flop , then bet this player .
Plus having math make your decisions and not reading the players hands preflop wont get you a win but to put your chips at risk . but hey no one can do that right ? Just like in the late 1800's when no one can fly too right ?
So do we not learn how to play a player correctly so we dont spew chips ?

how many types of callstations are out there 1 ? maybe 2 , better yet how about 5 ? How many types of TAG's ? himmmm some thing to think about
why would you play one person one way but but a different player onother way but they have the same playing style ? Could it be that they act or will react differently ?

One other thing here too . if you know you have a guy beat but the math tells you to fold would you fold ? If you know your behind and a player has you beat do you call and GIVE away more chips because the math says too ?
If you ask math a question in poker what type of answer do you get from it ?
does it tell you you have a player beat ? does it tell you your behind ?
I dont think you get the direct answer from asking math any question in poker . It can only tell you your PRECENTAGES to win , to improve , your EV value and so on but it never tells you what they are holding or if your ahead or behind .

so my advice is to learn to read styles with understanding which will help you learn to play against them styles and as you learn to read hands or put players on hands you will learn eventualy to put them on hands preflop ahead of getting too many chips in the pot before you figure out your behind .




some thing to think about . yes Mr Monkey this was part of what I was posting before I lost it .

Have fun at the tables gus201

 

[JOEBOB69]

Sometimes it's a good thing to put money in the pot when you're 100% sure you are behind in the hand.. ducy?

gus201 O U T capitol letters

 

[fletchdad]

Ok first off why would you want to open the betting by reraising this player he will shove . you know that you dont have a made hand so reraising will only get you to put more chips in . calling here will get you a flop , then bet this player .
Plus having math make your decisions and not reading the players hands preflop wont get you a win but to put your chips at risk . but hey no one can do that right ? Just like in the late 1800's when no one can fly too right ?
So do we not learn how to play a player correctly so we dont spew chips ?

how many types of callstations are out there 1 ? maybe 2 , better yet how about 5 ? How many types of TAG's ? himmmm some thing to think about
why would you play one person one way but but a different player onother way but they have the same playing style ? Could it be that they act or will react differently ?

One other thing here too . if you know you have a guy beat but the math tells you to fold would you fold ? If you know your behind and a player has you beat do you call and GIVE away more chips because the math says too ?
If you ask math a question in poker what type of answer do you get from it ?
does it tell you you have a player beat ? does it tell you your behind ?
I dont think you get the direct answer from asking math any question in poker . It can only tell you your PRECENTAGES to win , to improve , your EV value and so on but it never tells you what they are holding or if your ahead or behind .

so my advice is to learn to read styles with understanding which will help you learn to play against them styles and as you learn to read hands or put players on hands you will learn eventualy to put them on hands preflop ahead of getting too many chips in the pot before you figure out your behind .




some thing to think about . yes Mr Monkey this was part of what I was posting before I lost it .

Have fun at the tables gus201

Seriously???

No offense, gus, but what are you on about???

I will only start with "you know you dont have a made hand" .... I dont know how it is where you play, but on my tables, AA is about as made of a hand as you can have pre.......

 

[duggs]

strongly disagree with everything gus said

 

[gus201]

My bad with the hand it was AA . couldnt refer to the post so thought it was AK

 

[ovitoo]

Plus having math make your decisions and not reading the players hands preflop wont get you a win but to put your chips at risk . but hey no one can do that right ? Just like in the late 1800's when no one can fly too right ?

All due respect, I wouldn't give this advice to my worst enemy.

 

[nodnarb5265]

I agree with you. Be practical and know your skill level, don't get over confident as that's how you lose!

 

[gus201]

All due respect, I wouldn't give this advice to my worst enemy.

So what your saying is that if you put a player on AJ and you had QQ and you acted first and raised perflop and he calls . flop comes Kj 5 your EV valuse isnt the best so you would fold there knowing you have him beat ?

Very interesting .

so same hand but you now have 3 players in the hand you have QQ and the other guy has AJ and who knows the others have . flop comes A9 5 you now have a good expected EV here knowing your behind and only 2 outs but because of your ev you continue to put more chips in the pot ?

HMMMM very interesting


Now you give this info to your enemies ? HMMMMMM nice to know

 

[ovitoo]

you're implying that if there is one over card to our pp otf, it doesnt require math to determine if he outflopped you???

I'm not saying reads aren't important. But imo unless you're making money in your basement giving pshycic readings, you're game should lean more towards math and less being "certain" you kno your opponents holdings.

 

[gus201]

you're implying that if there is one over card to our pp otf, it doesnt require math to determine if he outflopped you???

I'm not saying reads aren't important. But imo unless you're making money in your basement giving pshycic readings, you're game should lean more towards math and less being "certain" you kno your opponents holdings.

How would you know if you cant read players hands preflop if they out flop you ?

By giving up and not trying to put players on hands your only playing the game in hopes that you can beat the other players other then playing to beat them .

if you think players cant put other players on hands preflop then you just might be at a disadvantage . But hey no one can and if we dont try we will never know . but if we can use math and get percentages to make our decisions we may as well use a chart and go on hopes LOl because you have to admit that is what math players are doing isnt it .

they dont know if they are ahead or not just what percentage they have to improve the hand .

My point here is try to put players on hands preflop not when its too late and you have half your chips in the pot and are pot committed when you figure it out .

if we continue to think you cant put players on hands , theres only 1 way to play hands and not open our thinking to more things out side of text book play then we really are missing quite a bit of we need to learn and know to become successful .

gus201

 

[duggs]

put players on ranges not individual hands, that way your margin of error is much wider, and you dont justify making bad plays based on 'soul reads'

 

[duggs]

Also i strongly disagree with everything gus says, just about every piece of it is wrong

 

[gus201]

put players on ranges not individual hands, that way your margin of error is much wider, and you dont justify making bad plays based on 'soul reads'

Well you said it I need a wider margin to make more errors

 

[gus201]

Also i strongly disagree with everything gus says, just about every piece of it is wrong

Thank you for only looking at in a closed one way view Theres no options in poker no different ways to play a hand. Just 1 way per hand . Math will help me win games by giving me a percentage and and not getting the the other players put on a hand .

Wow Im really off here . I think I need to change my play and start understanding how percentages will win hands for me and stop putting players on hands when I am right and do have them beat .

I have been going about this all wrong and now see the math in the game . I dont need to take down the hand when a head of the other players but take it down when the math tells me I have the right outs to pot ratio with positive ev values and not to worry if im a head or behind . Because in the long run It will work out . Can any one telll me how long is the long run ? because I dont see how we can figure in the long run with out an end ?




Please any one hurry up I need help with math to this game

Could use some help as reading players and their hands is not suppose to work and all the 10 years of my studying is totaly wrong


gus201

 

[ovitoo]

Sounds pretty results oriented to me. If you have been studying for 10 yrs (not just playing) then it sounds like you've missed a lot of information.

 

[gus201]

Sounds pretty results oriented to me. If you have been studying for 10 yrs (not just playing) then it sounds like you've missed a lot of information.

Wow really resault oriented from what ?

would like to thank you and Duggs for being so straight forward about this . I will go and stay away from posting because its all about math and math only and reads dont factor in because the percentages will make me win .

Doohh , I have really missed the right way to play poker I am off to learn more math and will stop putting players on hands preflop because that is wrong .

I will now learn the right way to play and I hope I can win with hope .


Thank you and every one that has helped to understand that reads dont belong in poker especialy putting players on hands .


Off to learn math gus201

Blinded by the success of playing math .

 

[ovitoo]

I have been going about this all wrong and now see the math in the game . I dont need to take down the hand when a head of the other players but take it down when the math tells me I have the right outs to pot ratio with positive ev values and not to worry if im a head or behind . Because in the long run It will work out . Can any one telll me how long is the long run ? because I dont see how we can figure in the long run with out an end

This is results oriented.

 

[ovitoo]

My point here is try to put players on hands preflop not when its too late and you have half your chips in the pot and are pot committed when you figure it out

There a great books written on adjusting your opponents range post-flop. But from the sound of it, you are much more successful than the experts.