Is poker just luck

Is poker luck???


  • Total voters
    18
  • Poll closed .
Ronaldadio

Ronaldadio

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I meant to attach this to my article ealier as a poll.
 
shortstacked

shortstacked

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what no 50-50 I think you should go from pure skill 10,20,- 50-100 put them all in there
 
Beriac

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That's a misleading question. Over the short term there's a very high luck component but skill is a factor. Over the long term, I believe it's mostly a skill game.
 
poettic1

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beriac took the words right out of my mouth.

both madisou and the amgician asfondiari have been quoted saying: in a single session poker is 70% luck and 30% skill, but over time it is the reverse 70% skill and 30% luck.
 
blankoblanco

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As Beriac pointed out, it's kind of a faulty question. If you're asking which is more important over any period of time, you could argue for either. If an unskilled player is abnormally lucky over a period of 1000 hands, he might do as well or better than a professional with average luck over that same period.

Everyone has good luck and bad luck periods if they play long enough. Skill is the crucial edge that allows the pros to make final tables somewhat consistently (as consistently as you can expect, for a game that can be very luck-oriented in the short-term). Skill is the reason I suspect just about every regular member of this forum is a winning, profitable player.
 
wsorbust

wsorbust

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It might be misleading, but its not "faulty"...
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

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The question contains a fault. That's a definition of faulty. That or "being characterized by errors". There's an obvious fault in asking someone to place some kind of exact percentage on the luck component in poker, especially with no other specifics.

I don't really get the point of trying to pick on someone's choice of word anyway.
 
wsorbust

wsorbust

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na. don't take it the wrong way. I wasn't picking on you for your wordage. Is poker luck? It's obvious none of us truly know if it is or isn't luck, neverless the percentages. I dont believe a question asking an opinion can be faulty. . .unless, of course, you look at it at some other angle....then yes...it is faulty. . . I just depends which way you look at it. IMO it's a simple question. No fault. No trickery...
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

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I see what you mean. Maybe the word I chose was bad, but what I mean basically is that I think there's an inherent flaw in the question because over any period of time poker can be any % of luck, but that the luck is always going to even out over a long enough period. I don't know how you can actually put a % on the luck component, when it evens out for everyone.

To put a % on luck and a % on skill, in my mind, compares the two as far as how important they are in relation to one another in poker. I think attempting to do that is faulty (insert better word) because they're independent of each other. Over a huge enough sample of hands, the luck (odds) will even out, while skill is the edge.
 
Beriac

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wsorbust said:
Is poker luck? It's obvious none of us truly know if it is or isn't luck, neverless the percentages.

Gotta disagree here. Poker is by definition a game of chance as it has random outcomes, so luck is clearly a factor. In the very short run, luck is clearly a very large factor. Deal me in for 1 hand against Phil Ivey and there is a statistically very significant chance that I win it. Whereas deal me in for 1,000,000 hands against Phil Ivey and there is likely nil chance that I end up ahead.

I think we can all agree that poker contains a huge element of luck in the very short term. And in the long term, I can tell you as something of a statistician that the success enjoyed by some of the pros -- both in tournaments and cash games -- is statistically significant and demonstrates that luck is not the only factor in the long run, maybe not even the major factor.

Thus I think we can say that luck matters in poker, and it matters a lot more over short periods than long periods.
 
D

donvic

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hi all,

voted 40% however

would have liked 10-20% luck

best,

donvic
 
JeeDub84

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I agree with donvic. You should of had something like 10% or 20% in there. I voted for pure skill because there was nothing lower than 40%
 
wsorbust

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Gotta disagree here. Poker is by definition a game of chance as it has random outcomes, so luck is clearly a factor.

Ok , maybe. And, in terms of live play.....then I was obviously wrong in saying you can say that there's no luck in it, but it's really just your opinion of what the percentages are based on how you play. . .

online poker also has no randomness and computers generating "random numbers" is nonexistant, so that's where I beg to differ in terms of the "luck".
 
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beardyian

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The lottery is luck - hence the name 'lottery' .
Poker is a game - games often need skill as well as luck.

Poker has elements of luck in, but also skill and sometimes the skill will completely dominate the situation and there are times when the river hits your hand and you win from a highly unlikely situation - thats luck.

If you play enough you will come across moments of both and there will be times when both will go against you.

IanT
 
t1riel

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I think luck is a big factor. You can't win a MTT all on skill. When your at the final table, luck is a bigger factor. However, you can't win a MTT all on luck either. The question here is how much luck do you need to get the win? I think the percentage is bigger than you think, not only on how the flop comes out but also on what cards you are dealt.
 
Beriac

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wsorbust said:
Online poker also has no randomness and computers generating "random numbers" is nonexistant, so that's where I beg to differ in terms of the "luck".

I'm honestly not sure what you're saying here exactly. If your point is that online poker has a different luck factor because it is not purely random, well, I agree that it is not purely random (no process known to humankind has been created that generates a truly random number), however I would counter that dealers are not exactly pure random number generators either.

Otherwise I'm not really sure what your point is...?
 
wsorbust

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Computers run on code...that was implemented by a human being. Code that is computed from a mathematical formula or taken from a precalculated list. The sequence of events is not random because the same exact thing will happen every time, depending on the sequence before it.

I guess I was stating that luck isn't a factor....because the cards you receive are predetermined...but I guess you could consider your seating position, type of play, etc. . . "luck" , honestly...I don't know where I was going with that.....I guess you can consider ANYTHING luck. Then let's consider that nothing is luck...Everything is predetermined and completely out of your control. You might Think you make a "choice", but, in actuality your choices were predetermined by something...maybe something more mysterious than the "luck" you speak of...eh?
 
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J

jokkeman

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Of course poker is very much skill. It would be a shame to say poker is just luck. Why play poker instead of roullette then? I think poker is somewhere between 20% and 40% luck. Internet poker is more luck just beacause it is harder to get a read on an opponent.
 
HoldemChamp

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Actually,

You can win a poker tournament on only luck. It ain't easy being that lucky. But, it is possible.

Now ask if you can win 2 in a row on luck. You would have to have an incredible amount of luck to accomplish that. Beyond 2 forget it. Luck only goes so far.

And as far as the arguement that we can't know whether poker is luck or not.

Ask David Sklanky. He will likely tell you that there is a certain element of luck in poker. We all know this. When you flop quad Ks two Ks in your hand and AKK on the board. Then the other player pulls off runner runner As to with his hand of AQ making him quad As what else could it be but luck.

However, he will tell you that over the long haul luck just isn't gonna be enough. Skill will win in the long run over luck. Period.
 
twizzybop

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My favorite saying for poker "Luck comes and goes but knowledge is forever"
 
L

LongRover

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Yeah. I have trouble with the question too. But, I will give it a try because the question appears sincere. So, my answer goes to a very general concept without reference to online or live poker...

Poker is about luck. Yes! But, not just luck. Just luck is just another perspective on poker, and I believe a simple case can be made to show poker is about more than just luck.

If poker is luck, is it good or bad? To some, there is "no luck at all," meaning they ran into bad luck. To others, there is "all the luck in the world," referring to good luck. Ideas about luck lead into those about people. It is people who play poker and believe in luck - in good or bad luck, in "no luck at all" and in "all the luck in the world." So, Poker is as much about people as luck.

Within a poker context, speaking of luck and people, you cannot have one without the other. Without people, there can be no luck since all its forms are human concepts. Without players who historically believed in luck and passed their beliefs onto others, there would be no luck. On a table, for example, where there are ten empty seats and a vacated dealer chair, and where all that exists is green felt and unused cards placed neatly between the chip tray and the shuffler, there can be no luck since there are no people to experience it.

That there can be no luck without people implies there can be luck with them. Some players do believe in luck because it is a poker concept. And, since there is always opposition to most concepts, it can safely be stated there are people who do not believe in luck in poker. So, as much as the concept has supporters, it also has detractors, and this is because, in poker, as in almost anything in life, people bring their own ideas into play.

That the notion of luck has supporters and detractors shows there is more than one perspective about poker. People do have different ideas. One, mentioned above, is poker is about luck; another, mentioned above too, is poker is as much about people and their ideas as luck. Perspectives are important because, if poker is merely about luck, then it is like a brainless lottery in which whoever gets the winning cards, wins; and, conversely, whoever gets the losing cards, loses. But, if people and their ideas are elements in poker, then the impact on the game is creativity, invention, and competition - not just luck. So, when people bring their ideas into poker, despite different perspectives, it becomes about how players with unique ways of thinking still manage to play a game common to the efforts of each to win.

Given this, it's fair to say poker is a game about which players have different views, including those who claim it is not about luck. Once people are integrated into the game as elements, as real as the element of luck, something happens. Having brought their own ideas into poker, players act accordingly. For example, to some, poker is not about luck. It is about expectations, outcomes and variances. It is about trusting their own experiences, knowledge, skills, strategies and decision-making abilities while assessing the values of hole cards in and of themselves, and as these later relate to cards dealt at the flop, turn and river. Others view poker, and variances especially, as solvable subsets of mathematics through the application of a wide array of probability theorems. The existence of the foregoing ideas, and other unmentioned concepts about poker, reduce the notion of the game as being about luck to just another perspective amongst many others.

So, is poker just luck? Yes. If you want to believe it to be! ;) But, I do believe a case can be made to show poker is about more than just luck. Just some particulars of such a case have been included in the writings above - there are a whole lot more not included.
 
jfofla

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in online poker 90% is lucky, already in live poker besides luck you need to have a good reading of your opponents and have good strategies of game.
 
vov4ik

vov4ik

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I meant to attach this to my article ealier as a poll.
I've been playing poker for a long time and I know that poker requires good playing skills, luck also sometimes comes at the right time and that's good, you do not have a point that good luck is 30%, so I'll vote that 40% luck!
 
F

forest_leaves

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I think even though there is some amount of luck involved what really matters is to not lose a lot of chips with losing hands and capitalize when you do(knowing when to fold, raise etc). And that part is the skill.So over time even though some "lucky" players might make it big, more often than not skilled players will also make cash.
 
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