Poker is a Game of Mathmatics but not a game of Math

K

KidHavok

Guest
I am just posting this thread to discuss mathmatical players. I am reading in all these posts about raise the preflop 3x, 4x, or 7x. Let me tell you one thing. If I sit at a game that is NL and blinds are .5 and 1, I will call a 7x bet with KQs, 7 dollars is not alot of money to me. You can say what you want about 7x or 4x the bb bet, but it all comes down to relative money. I dont make a ton of money but I can lose almost 500 a month at poker and it will not change my lifestyle. So, just because to raise 4x the BB, that doesnt mean anything. If somone thinks their hand is worth 3x,4x or 7x. then they will call. This shows that raising by what some book tells you to, isnt worth its weight in gold. Hence, I will fold 22 for 4x the BB but I would probably call for 7x the BB (and depending on the raiser). My 22 will get paid more for hitting on a hand that is raised more, I wont go all in preflop with them, but I will play them in bigger hands and muck them in rather small pots.... And I dont make my raises by 4x or 7x, I raise when I think i will or will not get a caller. I try to raise as much as possible to achieve what I am trying to achieve... what do you think????
 
Crippler450

Crippler450

Guest
I think that this type of play happens when you are playing limits that are too low. The mathematical style of play that you're referring to generally works best long-term in a type of game where you're not playing too high or too low of limits. You may call 7x BB with KQ suited in .5/.10 blinds, but would you in $20/$40? People play sloppier in lower limit games because they can afford to lose more, and they probably will (since they are playing more wrecklessly and relying more on luck in the short-term)
 
gordo30

gordo30

Rock Star
i can,t help thinking that these types of structured betting only really applies to tournament play as even in high level ring games theres always someone more affluent than you willing to bet bigger.whereas in tournament play you have to look ahead.
 
twizzybop

twizzybop

Legend
I dont make a ton of money but I can lose almost 500 a month at poker and it will not change my lifestyle.
Must be nice to have money to throw away like it is water. Reminds me of that guy who goes into a convience store and blows 100+ a day on lottery tickets without a care in the world.. It is called gambling and there is something called gambling anonymous for this reason.

So, just because to raise 4x the BB, that doesnt mean anything.
Last I recalled it means a premium top 10 pre-flop hand. Yes when someone uses the 4X the BB strategy, he/she had better hope that he isn't called or raised by someone holding a premuim top 10 pre-flop hand. So I'd say the norm and most people go by this norm of 3-4X or more pre-flop when holding a premuim hand.

This shows that raising by what some book tells you to, isnt worth its weight in gold.
Yes and call with K.10 all you want.. A king comes you have to hope that the person isn't holding AA KK AK.. So your willing to wish a king comes on the flop which that % is against you(no wonder why you lose 500).
Brings me to if a 10 falls on the flop.. You now have high kicker thats if your opponent isn't holding AA's KK's QQ's JJ's 10's .. you now have a 50/50 chance that they don't. The only flop where have the nuts are either a flush falls when you call with king,10 or a straight flops.

My 22 will get paid more for hitting on a hand that is raised more, I wont go all in preflop with them, but I will play them in bigger hands and muck them in rather small pots....

22 vs even 77 you have to hope for a 2 or very very very small cards to come. Very small % again..

And I dont make my raises by 4x or 7x, I raise when I think i will or will not get a caller. Why? The more hands in against a premuim hands the more of a chance it is going to lose.

I try to raise as much as possible to achieve what I am trying to achieve... what do you think????
Agreed. Losing 500 a month is an achievement whom am I to disagree.
 
KillerKat

KillerKat

Guest
Ya i think what your saying is partly true, books are only a guideline to get you going at first.They teach you the fundamentals. Each table you play at is so different from the other. the basics are the same. You got to get a feel for the table your at,see what the players are like. A raise on one table might not achieve the same results as another ect ect.

Great for you If you if you can lose that sort of money in a month( I think that says it all) Move up in limits, you need a challenge. Otherwise play bingo.
l
 
Bill_Hollorian

Bill_Hollorian

Rock Star
You are not talking about no limit holdem. In real No Limit Holdem you are more correct. Is there a limit on how much you can buy in for? If so, you are playing baby no limit.

You are describing what is called a deepstack game, although I disagree with some of your plays. The issue is if you double someone through a few times can you rebuy so that you have more chips than him? The "no limit games" that have limits on how much you can buy in for is a totally differnet game, in which this strategy has a low expected value. If you are playing real no limit... You are scratching the surface of big stack strategy. The important thing is that you can always rebuy and be the biggest stack at the table.

Bill
 
F

Freakakanus

Legend
All I know is that if I could lose 500$ a month and it not be a thing, I'd be one happy camper. God I hate being poor.
 
Tammy

Tammy

Moderator
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Freakakanus said:
All I know is that if I could lose 500$ a month and it not be a thing, I'd be one happy camper. God I hate being poor.
Ah, but Freak, look at your beautiful family! I say you are a very rich man...even if you didn't have two nickels to rub together...;)
 
X

xdmanx007

Legend
OH MY! How could this one slip through the cracks for so long on me! You have gotten some replies "reaching" for positives in your style. If I didn't know the posters I might suspect they were trying to encourage you, so that you continue to pad their bankrolls! The only arguement in your favor was if this was a style for turbo tournaments. Since you said .5/1 that means you are talking about cash games.

Now to the meat of your post. You are basically saying you like to call large preflop raises when you are quite likely way behind in the hand. You say you do this because in the overall sceme of things 4 bucks isn't a lot of money. This strategy at best can be called misguided at worst we would we immediatelly announce "we have a live one" as soon as you sit down! You are quite likely to win a big pot or 2 but those pots will NOT make up for all those large preflop bets you lose when you don't hit a monster! The only thing you state that should be listened to is, you don't contest small pots very often this is very sound advice. Pot sizes in poker should be looked at in terms of how many "bets" are in there not the specific monetary value the pot has. In other words once you sit down a BB is a BB wether it is 10 dollars or 10 cents!
The style you encourage should not be considered sound advice for any player looking to be a long term profitable player.
 
K

KidHavok

Guest
again, you guys have tried to pick on my comments taking them out of text. All I am saying is that I do not going into a pot being the dog, when there is a multiple of players. Do I want to play 22 vs 77 heads up, Hell NO!!!!!!!! Again, I do not lose $500 every month. Actually I usually end up a couple hundred winner for the month.
First of all, I play diffrent than anyone else here (that I know of). It seems I play larger games with bigger buy ins. I usually buy a little more than the minimum. I want pot odds!! Also, for those who know what implied odds are, I REALLY REALLY WANT IMPLIED ODDS!!!!! I can walk into a casino or go to an internet site and buy in 200-300 and cash out well over 1500 easily with my style of game and I am running in the BLACK. I am probably not up as much as you grinders in the $2/4 limit game, but poker is not really a source of income. $50 will not do alot for me, but on the other hand $1500 (i can do something with), plus I do not gamble money that I cannot afford to lose.
Third, you guys need to look at the theory of my play and try to learn from it, instead of trying to nit pick what I have said. Should anyone think my theory is Bad. Feel free to put me on you friends list on party poker, come and have a seat with me (mrsmaneater) or (born4nascar). I am not saying I can beat you heads up, but I think you will see that I can beat a table in the long run, because I like to play multiple players pots where your IMPLIED ODDS are good if you hit.
 
K

KidHavok

Guest
thank you bill for not trying to find failures in my english, instead you are looking at my poker theory. You know we can all "QUOTE" or we call use this board for learning... I would prefer to learn, if this is going to be a "quote" forum, then I am in the wrong place. And your right bill, the games that I play in: have minimum and maximum buyins. I appreciate all your responses...CHAD
 
X

xdmanx007

Legend
KidHavok said:
again, you guys have tried to pick on my comments taking them out of text. All I am saying is that I do not going into a pot being the dog, when there is a multiple of players. Do I want to play 22 vs 77 heads up, Hell NO!!!!!!!! Again, I do not lose $500 every month. Actually I usually end up a couple hundred winner for the month.
First of all, I play diffrent than anyone else here (that I know of). It seems I play larger games with bigger buy ins. I usually buy a little more than the minimum. I want pot odds!! Also, for those who know what implied odds are, I REALLY REALLY WANT IMPLIED ODDS!!!!! I can walk into a casino or go to an internet site and buy in 200-300 and cash out well over 1500 easily with my style of game and I am running in the BLACK. I am probably not up as much as you grinders in the $2/4 limit game, but poker is not really a source of income. $50 will not do alot for me, but on the other hand $1500 (i can do something with), plus I do not gamble money that I cannot afford to lose.
Third, you guys need to look at the theory of my play and try to learn from it, instead of trying to nit pick what I have said. Should anyone think my theory is Bad. Feel free to put me on you friends list on Party Poker, come and have a seat with me (mrsmaneater) or (born4nascar). I am not saying I can beat you heads up, but I think you will see that I can beat a table in the long run, because I like to play multiple players pots where your IMPLIED ODDS are good if you hit.
I fully understand your posts. I am not taking them out of context. I simply fundamentally disagree with your approach to NL ring games. Here is where I see the strategy to be fundamentally flawed; you buy in for a little more than the minimum. Why not buy in for the max if your goal is to win huge pots? You are limiting your expectation right there. A good analogy would be you are trying to hit home runs while in a bunting stance! The style you propose "might" work with a large stack of chips but you start with a small stack and are totally dependent upon catching cards to win!

Seems to me by buying in for far less than the max buyin you aren't all that confident that your strategy is as successful as you claim it to be! Also it tells me you are trying to avoid difficult decisions postflop because with a small starting stack you are going to be allin after the flop in most cases which eliminates 2 full betting rounds! Seeing as how I do know a little something about implied odds, which is what you expect to win if your hand improves to the best hand in FUTURE betting rounds; you actually are not getting good implied odds by playing aggressively with a small stack, once you are allin there are no more bets to come so no more implied odds, at that point you have EV or expectation depending upon your choice of terminology.

Now as I said before overplaying drawing hands may very well work in the short term, as I suspect it has for you but sooner or later your bankroll will swing way RED!
 
V

VegasGrinder

Guest
The strategy being talked about is nothing new. It is a strategy used when someone doesn't want to get out played post flop. Over long haul it is a losing strategy because they go in as a dog majority of the time. The odds come out over time. The math doesn't lie.

Short Term it can be a good strategy when up against players with a higher skill level than you have (If you are lucky that day).

The style is easy to beat but you have to have the cards to beat them. A tight aggressive style will break this style of player (Unless you are Card Dead).
 
T

tdfarls1103

Guest
I agree

I agree with the fact that it is a game of mathematics. You need to know the pot odds and the odds you have the best hand and things of that nature. But it is also about psychology and learning what your opponent may have. I think even more important than the math aspect are both your gut feelings and your psychological knowledge of the game and of your opponents.
 
J

jpockets

Guest
Alright kid, I commend you on your conviction....and really really really hope I meet you at the tables soon! ;-)
 
V

VegasGrinder

Guest
You can have all the psychology and learning what your opponent might have, but if you are still going in as a dog majority of the time...You will go broke over time.

I assume you are talking about online poker. It is hard to put someone on a hand preflop online. Live is a differant story, that is where tells come in.
 
twizzybop

twizzybop

Legend
It is hard to put someone on a hand preflop online. Live is a differant story, that is where tells come in.

You also have tells online as well.. for instance the auto button. Most of the time a quick check means person has nothing. A quick call or re-raise means strength. A flush hits on the turn and they bet quickl(means they have it).
That auto check.fold,raise button is a killer to those who don't know it is a tell.(slow down for a few seconds and then do your action). Another tell is someones betting patterns. Someone that bets after the flop say 120 chips evertime he has top pair on the board. Someone who is tight and only plays premium hands. Those are easy to spot cause there chip count hasn't changed dramatically say the past 20 hands cause he folds all his hands.


For instance you have a fellow that calls you all the way down to the river. You had better have something cause he lives in missouri(the show me state) and wants you to show what you have.
 
X

xdmanx007

Legend
Well that is the beauty of poker their isn't one single "right" or wrong way to play.
I think their are 3 ways to play:
Bad = you lose money

Good= Break Even, arguably niether good or bad but simply a waste of time.

Best= Consistantly make a profit

So when you see me type the "best" way to play a hand, I am telling you the play I believe gives you the best chance of achieving a consistant profit.
 
V

VegasGrinder

Guest
Tells online and the auto buttons can be off totaly. I and many others actualy use the auto button when holding the nuts, just to try and catch someone who thinks it is a tell. not every time, but we do mix it up.
Online, Preflop you can't put someone on a hand.

The original poster was talking about making calls 4X the BB preflop with marginal hands. He is going in as Dog. Any time you are calling with the worse hand, you aren't playing profitable poker, PERIOD!
 
smd173

smd173

Cardschat Elite
This whole thread just reminds me again why I don't care for NL cash games. No matter what the limit, there will always be someone there who $500 doesn't mean much to them, or is willing to gamble with bad cards to moderate cards.

Everyone always says, "I can't wait to have them at my table". Yet go and look at all of the bad beat threads. It's the reason people get so pissy at the poker table these days. They can't stand to play "perfect poker" and get sucked out on the river by someone who is gambling. But they are more acceptable to losing if they have a top 10 vs. top 10 hand.
 
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