Odds of Hitting Big Hands

S

Skott

Guest
I am sick of hearing that a site is not random when people see a lot of big hands being made. The first thing I have to say is that the probability of a big hand such as 4 of a kind and str8 flushes are not that unrealistic. That is a major reason a lot of us play poker. Secondly, if a site is really busy say 40,000 players on 5000 tables. (Given a lot of people play multiple tables.) A lot of hands a being dealt so the probability that there will be a big hand on the site is very realistic. When a site is slow and has say 5000 players on 600 tables there are still a lot of hands being played but in proportion there will probably be less BIG HANDS dealt in the same time frame it is the matter of mathmatics and probability. For people to say you don't see it in live table play. All I should have to say is that in live tables play 50 per hour is a really fast table and 35 would be average. Online you will get a fast game dealing out over 100 hands per hour and on average 60 hands per hour. Now that you factor in many players play 2 or 3 tables at once they can play 300 hands per hour on fast tables and 180 hand per hour on average. This makes the odds for hitting some BIG HANDS much greater.

PLEASE try to consider this when you hear people say a site is rigged for action or that it is unrealistc.

TY I had to get that off my chest
 
F

flyin27

Guest
I totally agree, people that complain about bad beats don't realize how many hands are being delt per hour, comparing to the regular casino. Obviously there are going to be badder beats more often, and by the way they arn't that often.

Flyin
 
R

RAZE

Guest
Whenever someone replies to my draw beating theirs with "unreal" or "how can you call..." or "blah blah blah..." the odds are at worst 1 in 45 which is far from unreal or unrealistic or rigged.
 
Y

Yao

Guest
I have to add to this...I hate it when people lose a big hand to a river, or a 4th street card and they say "WOW GAY". I always ask them what's gay, even if it wasn't my hand. The river is all part of the game, if it was gay they probably wouldn't have it
 
JoshLamon

JoshLamon

Rising Star
i agree with you because the beats happen all the time on every site and at home games.
My worst beat was at a home game and not online.
 
C

chicubs1616

Guest
Great point. These mainstream internet sites run thousands of hands at a time, so every once in a while you are going to be at the table where a huge hand hits.
 
cky12

cky12

Guest
All poker sites are random. They are not rigged or anything like that. I know a lot of people say this because they lose on the river or something, but it is just rotten luck. Overall, I have had sucess on the site most disscused and acused of being rigged: pokerstars. I have won 20x my starting bankroll ever since depositing first, without depositing more money.
 
Seinfeld_fan

Seinfeld_fan

Guest
yep

Couldn't agree with you anymore. Thousands and thousands of hands are being dealt every day, they are bound to be a lot of big hands throughout the day.
 
X

xdmanx007

Legend
While the shear number of hands and weak players chasing a miracle does explain most peoples gripes about the differences between online and offline poker. There seem to be alot of folks who swear every hand at every site is random. My question to you is this; How do you know? There are a couple of sites who have accounting firms certify the hands are random. What makes you so positive that there is no shadiness whatsoever going on?
BTW in case you are wondering I play a ton of poker online. I am just curious what makes everybody so sure the games they play are totally square?
 
B

bLock0r

Rising Star
Great point. These mainstream internet sites run thousands of hands at a time, so every once in a while you are going to be at the table where a huge hand hits.
 
P

peter1811

Visionary
How many hands you won or lost with the river...
The River is maybe the " CARD ".....

I think you have to go sometimes to the river and play to your limit. I had many times luck and unluck. That's part of the game.

And on the sites like everybody said: 1000's hands a day. Odds for big one are there....

There is no more to say about the guys before me ... GOOD POSTS !!!
 
B

bschuster788

Guest
i agree that there are plenty of big hands to be made and the chances of making a big hand are the same every time u get dealt cards
 
X

xdmanx007

Legend
AHHH still haven't heard anybody stand up and say WHY they are so sure these sites are square:)
 
R

ruffcut68

Rock Star
Awards
1
Check out the site certifications for Random Number Generators on the various sites. I stay away from the sites that have the RNG certificate with THIER name on it.
 
R

ruffcut68

Rock Star
Awards
1
While most sites are random, read the RNG (Random Number Generator) Certificate. Some have been developed by and approved by the site...so be careful.
 
titans4ever

titans4ever

Legend
I don't think I see to many big hands dealt out or worry about it. I would start to worry when I start too see two big hands against each other. AA vs KK or two people flopping sets at same time.

Two hands that get pitted against each other that will increase the pot dramatically are what I look for. That is the only way for the sites to make more money. Getting rivered but not getting you all-in doesn't help them out dramatically. I was involved in a hand where 3 people hit their flushes, one A high, me K high and the 3rd Q high. Those are the types that guarantee all-ins and more money for the site.
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

plays poker on hard mode
I understand what you're all saying, but I honestly can't blame some people for being suspicious about the shuffling when some sites seem to have certain nuances. Forget comparing live poker to online poker. That's dumb. But comparing online poker to other online poker, I see some credibility to software stereotypes.

For example, PokerStars is agreed on by many people who have played multiple poker sites to give flushes irregularly. I experienced it myself. I was going to do a complete study, but I realized I didn't have the time or patience to create a large enough sample for people to find credible.

However, it didn't help my slight skepticism of PokerStars when I observed tables, looking only at the community and studying for flush draws. The odds of getting 3 cards of the same suit in a deal of 5 cards is 37.1%. In four separate sessions of 100 hands per session, I found PokerStars dealt 3 cards of the same suit on the board at the very least 46% of the time in each session.

I know it's not a billion hands, but what are the odds that four separate sessions of study are just going to happen to deviate from the expected average odds by 9% EACH time? All I can say is that I thought it was really, really weird, but I'm not going to swear a site is rigged or anything based on some stupid bad beats.
 
V

VegasGrinder

Guest
If you are taking bad beats (Best hand when chips go in and gave bad pot odds to other player). You are playing good poker.

If you are giving the bad beats (Not best hand when chips go in and calling with bad pot odds). You are playing bad poker.

I don't get upset when people hit their 4 outers. I like it because I know that they are going to lose those chips. The only concern is whether it is to me or someone else.
 
twizzybop

twizzybop

Legend
I agree you see more hands, that is granted. Yes we are dealing with rng, now the question remains is it rng for the whole site or for an individual deck of cards? Now rng for a whole site(all the tables) or individual rng for all the single tables with 1 individual deck of cards running at once?

However since thier is no evidence to point that any of them are rigged yet no real evidence to say they aren't either. I wrote to a site a good while ago asking to see the %'s of how many times an ace comes on the flop. They said it wasn't happening cause they can't give out that information.
 
M

MustangLou

Guest
I have hit 7 ( seven royal flushes this yr with 3 in live play 1 in vegas.
quads dont even keep track except more common then str8 flushes.
 
jaymfc

jaymfc

R.I.P DJ & Buck
Awards
71
I don't fully trust the RNG , the RNG itself may be as close to live as you can get , but I don't fully trust the poker sites that run them with possibly different sets of rules . I'm not saying this happens , but I wonder sometimes.........when I'm losing.

just for fun I want to share a hand that I was dealt in on bodog , talk about the odds of this happening , AA KK QQ JJ all dealt in one hand in a $2 sng , didn't get the hh or a freakin screenshot , I would kill for a screenshot but at the time just chalked it off as "bodogged" , anyways I had the QQ and won with a Q on the flop. no one would gain anything by it being rigged , so no thoughts of that , but thats when the thoughts of that dang RNG started . what can you say huh , play it or leave it.
 
P

phatjose

Rock Star
I think part of the problem with people thinking that online sites are rigged is that they misunderstand what random really means. Random does not mean there will be an equal distribution of cards. So your results over a short term study can and will be very skewed based on what happens. And with how many hands that it actually takes for the randomness to become apparent, almost any individual study would be considered too short or small of a sample size.
 
reglardave

reglardave

Legend
I don't fully trust the RNG , the RNG itself may be as close to live as you can get , but I don't fully trust the poker sites that run them with possibly different sets of rules . I'm not saying this happens , but I wonder sometimes.........when I'm losing.

just for fun I want to share a hand that I was dealt in on bodog , talk about the odds of this happening , AA KK QQ JJ all dealt in one hand in a $2 sng , didn't get the hh or a freakin screenshot , I would kill for a screenshot but at the time just chalked it off as "bodogged" , anyways I had the QQ and won with a Q on the flop. no one would gain anything by it being rigged , so no thoughts of that , but thats when the thoughts of that dang RNG started . what can you say huh , play it or leave it.

You see these "cold deck" specials on PS from time to time as well. You know, 5-6 players at a full tavle get pps on the same hand. People always mutter about what are the odds, etc, but to me the point is this. Whatever the odds may be-1k to1, million to 1, whatever you choose, the point is, as many hands as Pokerstars deals, all day every day, that one in whatever comes around pretty often. Doesn't mean it's rigged, it just means there's lots more opportunities for "random" anomalies to occur.

I was playing a SNG this morning. In the space of 75 hands, I was dealt pocket jacks 5 times! Odds? Who cares! What was even more remarkable to me, they held up every time! Being one of my least favorite hands to play, I always try to bump them big time, so I don't have much action to hold up against, but still...... And finally, got busted out of it like this: called a small raise with pocket treys, flop came down 4s-6c=3s. GIN. Original raiser pushes allin, and turns up......pocket jacks. Then hit runner spades to suckout on me!:(
 
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