Need help with a project

[genobear]

Before I get into this I want to say that I love to play poker. The joy of victory,the agony of defeat, the constant striving to improve, all of it. It's a great game. I play 2 or 3 nights a week live and many hours a day on line. I love the game!
Now to get to the part that I think many will find to be controversial. Controversy is a good thing because it makes people think-right? I find live poker and internet poker to have very little resembalnce. Internet poker is full of monster hands, bad beats, and on the average pretty poor play that gets rewarded with a high degree of consistency. Many will say that it is because you see so many more hands per hour and as far as that goes no doubt there are many more hands perhour, but that isn't what I am getting at. I am talking about hand count and not time played.
Now here are some basic poker stats that are generally excepted as fact.
Royal Flush 1 in 649,750 hands
str8 flush 1 in 81,218 hands
quads 1 in 4,165 hands
full house 1 in 694 hands
str8 1 in 283 hands
I think these numbers are accurate and reflect what will prove out over the long haul in live play.
I have started tracking hand counts and winning hands and am finding some pretty interesting numbers after tracking for a short time. I just finished a 6 player S&G and here are the numbers on a total of 192 hands. Keep in mind that these are just hands that went to a showdown and that players were dropping out as the game progressed. Probably no more than 900 hands give or take.
1- 4 of a kind
3-full houses
3-flush hands
1-straight
Now having played alot of 6 player sit and go's this didn't seem to be too unusual, but if you look at the stats of actual poker hands it is way out of wack.
Some pretty interesting numbers don't you think? I would like some help with a tracking project. I would ask you to keep track of the big winning hands (quads,flush, straights and houses) and the number of hands played and e mail these to me at genobear01@hotmail.com and I will put the numbers together. I think the results could be sort of startling. If your interested-drop me a line.
Now what the hell is the purpose of this? As I said at the start I love poker. If the internet games are skewed then we need to ask some hard questions-mainly why are they skewed. I have some thoughts on this, but for right now lets try to get some hard numbers to look at and evaluate. If you love pure poker, and I know many of you do, then you will want to play in reasonably realisitc internet games.
Thanks for listening-Geno B

 

[Stefanicov]

I dunno if this helps but in a 5 hr omaha session i got quads 7 times was lovin every minute

except the one time they lost to a rivered str8 flush lol

 

[joosebuck]

Royal Flush 1 in 649,750 hands

i've had 2 this year. im on a rush

 

[tenbob]

Correct me if im wrong but these are 5 card draw stats, ie getting a pat 5 card poker hand straight off the bat. They dont take the community card aspect into account. Ie techicnally if the board is a straight flush in holdem then everyone that remained in the hand has a straight flush.

Oh yea and they dont take into account that your also using 7 cards.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

I just finished a 6 player S&G and here are the numbers on a total of 192 hands.

oh dear

 

[Stefanicov]

Im playing a 5 crd draw tourny and hve seen 5 full houses in 200 hnds

Rigged

 

[joosebuck]

192 is a fair sample size you know.

 

[robwhufc]

Correct me if im wrong but these are 5 card draw stats, ie getting a pat 5 card poker hand straight off the bat. They dont take the community card aspect into account. Ie techicnally if the board is a straight flush in holdem then everyone that remained in the hand has a straight flush.

Oh yea and they dont take into account that your also using 7 cards.

No you're not wrong, got it straight on the nose. Lucky someone pointed this out to Geno 1st day, will have saved a lot of time and effort!

 

[Irexes]

You may want to investigate something called standard deviation.

 

[bubbasbestbabe]

Also the amount of people playing on the site matters. If there are 10,000 people playing at that time it going to matter. Say for example all 10,000 were playing a SNG at the same time. Using your figures there would be 3,200,000 hands generated at that time giving 5 royals, 39 str8 flushes, 768 quads, 4610 full houses and so on to players. I think that just shows that the numbers are randomly generated.

 

[PokerPete]

Royal Flush 1 in 649,750 hands

Hmmmm ok let's see EXACTLY how that is calculated:

there are FOUR different Royal Flushes available (one for each suit of course)

so your odds for the first card are:

any of the 20 10 through ace of any suit out of a deck of 52

So for card 1 the "Probability" of getting one of these 20 is 20/52 (say we are dealt the 10 of diamonds)

Once the first is dealt, now the remainer MUST be the same suit (diamonds), so the cards remaining are reduced to AKQJ of diamonds out of the 51 remaining cards:

so card 2 "Probability": 4/51 (say we get the A diamonds next)

the next card MUST be either Kd Qd or Jd out of the 50 remaining:

so card 3 "Probability": 3/50 (Say we get the Kd next leaving Q & J diamonds missing)

so card 2 "Probability": 2/49

and card 5 "Probability": 1/48

To find the "Probability" for this "Combination" occurring, we multiply all the "Probabilities" together

or

20*4*3*2*1 / 52*51*50*49*48 = 480/31187520

now divide top and bottom by 480 and get the magic:

1 / 649740 "Probability"

so thats the "Probability" of any five cards dealt from a deck of 52 cards being a "royal flush"....

Now you're talking about a ring of ten players each getting two cards then sharing 5 community cards...my "sadistics" & probability is a little rusty, but it's my gut "truthiness" feeling that what you're applying here doesn't fit the way the game is played... and the first most obvious difference is the fact that you have 7 cards to make your Royal instead of just 5...and nine OTHER players are sharing 5 of those cards....