Are Double or Nothing SnG's worth it?

[bullishwwd]

Play Tighter Than Normal

I still consider this to be "THE" very best way to increase, with less risk, your bankroll.



Think about this: You're playing in a Turbo “Double or Nothing” Sit n Go on PokerStars. 10 players will start with 5 of them doubling-up and 5 getting nothing. Example, you “buy-in” with $10 and when you place at least 1-5, you will be paid $20 (Double up). However, if you place 6-10, you get nothing! The starting stacks are 1,500 and relatively quick structure, the blinds are increasing rather fast (turbo).

What's your overall Sit N Go strategy here?

A) Play way tighter than normal.
B) Play normal tournament poker.
C) Play looser than everybody else, after all, the blinds are in “turbo” mode so you must double up fast and have a lot of chips to survive

​

Correct answer is A


EXPLANATION:

5 players will WIN, and it doesn't matter if you're first or fifth. The prize is the same, so if you finish first, you've probably done something wrong or been extremely lucky.

In other words: 10 from the starting line, 5 to the finish line, 1,500 in starting chips - this all means that the “In The Money” (ITM) average stack will be about 750.

Understand this: If the average is 750, the last ITM stack could be 400 – 500. In other words, doubling up “once” is enough to have an ITM chance. And, if you double up twice, you'll surely qualify. So there's no reason whatsoever to go to war in the pots without really good cards, and you won't gain anything by winning small pots early on either.

Bottom-line: Play extremely tight in the beginning, hope for a high pair and a double-up. If you don't get any good opportunities, maybe you should try desperately to "double up" later, but give the deck a chance first.

Remember, often times with only one "double-up", you can actually "sit out" your way to a win. Patience and discipline are key!

A Turbo DON Game normally takes about 25 - 35 minutes with you playing about 6 -8 hands. You should be winning a min of 7 out of 10 games...easiest SnG available.


My best to you, Wally

 

[bullishwwd]

Additionally

Also, to keep from getting bored, consider multi-tabling at least 2 to 4 tables... all same level of buy-in etc... don't mix games!

 

[LarryT503]

I've built bankrolls playing the sit'ngos, however, it does require you to play a diifferent strategy than you would typically play. A good deal, however, if you're patient and willing to fold good cards and avoid pre-flop all-ins.

 

[ciukster]

I've built bankrolls playing the sit'ngos, however, it does require you to play a diifferent strategy than you would typically play. A good deal, however, if you're patient and willing to fold good cards and avoid pre-flop all-ins.

yeh i agree...patients is the key and even folding big hands pre flop is a good idea if someone shoves

 

[WurlyQ]

Remember, often times with only one "double-up", you can actually "sit out" your way to a win. Patience and discipline are key!

A Turbo DON Game normally takes about 25 - 35 minutes with you playing about 6 -8 hands. You should be winning a min of 7 out of 10 games...easiest SnG available.

Neither are possible except at the $1s imo.

 

[bullishwwd]

Neither are possible except at the $1s imo.

Not only possible, that is exactly the range for me...two last night averaging 30 mins and 7 hands at the $10 level, Turbo.

Wally

PS: next one, 'll send you a copy of stats if I can copy and paste.

 

[WurlyQ]

Not only possible, that is exactly the range for me...two last night averaging 30 mins and 7 hands at the $10 level, Turbo.

Wally

PS: next one, 'll send you a copy of stats if I can copy and paste.

Sample size? Anyone can run hot in a small sample. I have had more than 10+ streaks of 10 consecutive wins at the 10s, yet I am a 7.5% winner (about 56% itm) over the long haul and one of the biggest winners in DoNs at my stakes.

 

[bullishwwd]

Sample size? Anyone can run hot in a small sample. I have had more than 10+ streaks of 10 consecutive wins at the 10s, yet I am a 7.5% winner (about 56% itm) over the long haul and one of the biggest winners in DoNs at my stakes.

Thought I'd play two of these for you tonight at same time ... the time was 37 minutes with 8 of 52 hands played for first DON; and the 2nd DON was 45 minutes with 8 of 65 hands played. Respectively, the tournament numbers were 238280363 and 238280388.

Both of these strayed a slightly from last nights DONs, but still really close to the 25 to 35 minutes and 6 to 8 hands. Anyways, these are simply a guideline measurement ...actually, I have had as little as 20 minutes and 5 hands played. GL mate, Wally


.MsgBody-text, .MsgBody-text * { font: 10pt monospace; }pokerstars Tournament #238280363, No Limit Hold'em
Buy-In: $10.00/$0.40 USD
10 players
Total Prize Pool: $100.00 USD
Tournament started 2010/01/31 22:05:11 ET


Dear bullish06,

You finished the tournament in 1st place. A USD 20.00 award has been credited to your real money account.


Congratulations!

Thank you for participating.



.MsgBody-text, .MsgBody-text * { font: 10pt monospace; }PokerStars Tournament #238280388, No Limit Hold'em
Buy-In: $10.00/$0.40 USD
10 players
Total Prize Pool: $100.00 USD
Tournament started 2010/01/31 22:05:39 ET


Dear bullish06,

You finished the tournament in 1st place. A USD 20.00 award has been credited to your Real Money account.


Congratulations!

Thank you for participating.

 

[WurlyQ]

... so your sample size is 2? No one has been able to sustain anything close to 70% over the long haul. Any sample size less than around 500 is meaningless imo.

 

[bullishwwd]

WURLYQ and DON

WurlyQ,
I don't know where you get a sample size of 2 (guess you only count tonights 2 games). Obviously I played 2 last night since I mentioned that earlier and obviously too I have played many more than four since I wrote a post based on something.

I must admit I have NOT played 500 games of DON (and I doubt you have neither nor likely anybody else we know).

I have not recorded how many games of DON I have actually played, but I probably have played maybe 50 to 60 and I do average around 80 to 85 % ITM ... mostly at the $10 buy-in.

I wrote the post on this thread in order to maybe assist others with their play of the DON since I find it to be one of the easier and less risky ways to add to ones bankroll.

I agree that a population sample of only 50 to 60 DON tournaments may not be as adequate as one of 500, but that is what it is...take it or leave it. I certainly did not intend to get into a pi**ing contest with you or anyone. I was simply attempting to contribute to this thread.

BTW, do you still play these DONs on PokerStars? If you play on FullTilt, is there a "similar" type tournament and if so, what is it called? When you play the DON, what is your strategy to get the 70% ITM and how many hands do you average and how long is the average game? I would think your average game "time" would have to be consistent with mine as long as you are also playing the $10 Turbo DON. Maybe we will be lucky enough to be on the same table sometime in the future.

My best to you, Wally

 

[LRPharm54]

depends what stake and how many your playing at once. When I do them I do 15 at a time and only need to win 9/15 for a reasonable profit.

thats 60% btw.

I suppose if your playing less tables at a time you would need to win a higher % for fast bank roll growth.

but for practicable purposes I will assume out of 100 sit and goes. now if we are playing the turbo double or nothings on stars lets say $5.20 level, then we need to attain a 10% ROI really or there abouts as this is what top professionals say a winning player should be making from standard sit and go single tables. so we would have staked $520 if we played 100 of these. therefore we would need to get back $572. in order to do that we would need to win 57.2% to of these.

If however your doing the non turbos which charge 8% rake you would be staking $540 and thus would need to get back $594. thus you would need to win 59.4% of these to achieve 10% roi.

these figures are not unrealistic and I generaly find I achieve close to 15% ROI on these. I believe its the lower rake that gives me the ROI boost. Well actually I don't just believe i know.

I totally agree, and it makes sense. I would say an eclectic approach would be better. That is to say try different games, have variety, and then select those games you are the best at in playing. You obviously can't win all the time, but if you are in a game you feel a good comfort level in, then so be it, stick with those which work for you.

:tee:

 

[WurlyQ]

WurlyQ,
I don't know where you get a sample size of 2 (guess you only count tonights 2 games). Obviously I played 2 last night since I mentioned that earlier and obviously too I have played many more than four since I wrote a post based on something.

I must admit I have NOT played 500 games of DON (and I doubt you have neither nor likely anybody else we know).

I have not recorded how many games of DON I have actually played, but I probably have played maybe 50 to 60 and I do average around 80 to 85 % ITM ... mostly at the $10 buy-in.

I wrote the post on this thread in order to maybe assist others with their play of the DON since I find it to be one of the easier and less risky ways to add to ones bankroll.

I agree that a population sample of only 50 to 60 DON tournaments may not be as adequate as one of 500, but that is what it is...take it or leave it. I certainly did not intend to get into a pi**ing contest with you or anyone. I was simply attempting to contribute to this thread.

BTW, do you still play these DONs on PokerStars? If you play on FullTilt, is there a "similar" type tournament and if so, what is it called? When you play the DON, what is your strategy to get the 70% ITM and how many hands do you average and how long is the average game? I would think your average game "time" would have to be consistent with mine as long as you are also playing the $10 Turbo DON. Maybe we will be lucky enough to be on the same table sometime in the future.

My best to you, Wally

First off, I apologize for being critical. It's a bad habit of mine.

I have played a huge sample of DoNs (about 1500 at the 1s, 1000 at the 5s, 4000 at the 10s, and 500 at the 20s so roughly 7000 total) and leaderboards as well as other tracking sites argue contrary to your statement (anything close to 70% itm being possible). I average about 56% itm and am one of the biggest winners both itm and total profit. If you play with a HUD, I average around 9/8 playing around 20-30 tables. Average game time is ~33 minutes per game.

I have seen several people on CC now post how 70+% can be achieved and it generally turns out that it is a run hot over a small sample size. I'm not saying you are one of those people but history has a tendency to repeat itself. If you are crushing them, keep on rolling and gl to you!

Edit: FT does not have DoNs. The closest thing is playing satties where the 6.5 to the double deuce is the closest thing that runs on a normal basis.

 

[WurlyQ]

Let me work these out for anyone 5.00 + 50p
5.50 x 10times = £55
so if you win 5 times out of 10 (50%) that would be £50 so you would be £5 down
So anything else would be PROFIT
AND IF YOU GET 35% rakeback 35% of 50p is 17p right
so your rakeback would be 1.70.

all makes sence now. its written down

WAS MY EXAMPLE RIGHT ABOUT THE RAKEBACK ON THESE DONS

Are you asking a question? If so, what is the question?

1. If the question is about profits after rakeback, the math is as following:

Cash in 5/10 games scenario with 35% rakeback: Cost of £55, prizes of £50, and rakeback of £1.75.

Profits = -£55 + £50 + £1.75 = -£3.25 (or a £3.25 loss)
ROI = -£3.25/£55 = -.059 (or -5.9%)

2. The break even point after rakeback is the following:

win% * (£10 - £5.5 + £.175) - (1 - win%) * (£0 - £5.5 + £.175) = 0
This is basically, probability of winning * profits when you win plus probability of losing * losses when you lose and setting it equal to zero because we are looking for the break even point.

win% * (£4.675) - (£5.325 - win% * £5.325) = 0
win% * £4.675 - £5.325 + win% * £5.325 = 0
win% * £10 = £5.325
win% = 53.25%

 

[LukeSilver]

I am a regular double or nothing player myself and have made a few grand doing them I play $10 Dons and might soon be moving up to the $20 dons i play 12 at a time. I know Wurly isn't likey to be speaking crud because his statements seem quite close to accurate to me.

Wurly is there much difference in standard between the $10.40s and the $20.80s?

am I likely to get similar results I mean ROI wise.

 

[bullishwwd]

WurlyQ and LukeSilver, how in the world does somebody play 12 games at a time, much less 20-30 tables? Most I can handle is 4 or 5... my screen and my eyes I guess limit me. 2 tables is ideal for me...could this be why my average ROI on these run around 80%? Seriously, HOW can you do it? You obviously have more than one screen. Wally

 

[WurlyQ]

WurlyQ and LukeSilver, how in the world does somebody play 12 games at a time, much less 20-30 tables? Most I can handle is 4 or 5... my screen and my eyes I guess limit me. 2 tables is ideal for me...could this be why my average ROI on these run around 80%? Seriously, HOW can you do it? You obviously have more than one screen. Wally

Quoting myself from another post:

Some ring vids of MMT:

24 table stacked
https://www.cardschat.com/f53/24-table-stacking-zachvac-50nl-fr-129461/

24 table tiled (with overlap)
https://www.cardschat.com/f53/i-tile-24-tables-100nl-fr-147383/

20 table 2 stacks
https://www.cardschat.com/f53/multi-table-vid-126197/

Fwiw, it's easier to multi table SnGs due to less post flop play and optimal play being much more robotic. I stack 27 tables right now and there are degenerates that stack 50+. I think stack is the way to go with 12+ tables. It certainly takes getting used to and is something that you need to ease into (add one table, see what it's like, add another if you're comfortable, etc, etc)

Fwiw, I play all my games on a single laptop.

With all due respect, 80% itm is just not sustainable. As stated before, you are running hot. I am not stating this to spite you. I am just tempering your expectations and warning you that you will eventual stop running hot. I have had several 50+ game streaks this year where I have run north of 70% itm as well as several streaks where I have won 10+ consecutive games but my overall itm for the year is 56%.

In DoNs, most games will last to the 100/200 blind level and beyond and inevitably turn into a shoving match at the end. Once you get to this stage, there are multiple ways to lose including a.) getting a good hand to shove but someone else has a better hand and they hold, b.) you shove and get called by a worse hand but they suck out c.) you're forced to call with a premium pair and they suck out, and d.) you are given no opportunities to shove until you are either forced to shove a crappy hand or you are forced to call at some point because you are closed to getting blinded out. Sustaining 80+% would mean that you fold anything except when you get it in with your overpair against two unders (~85% equity). This situation just does not materialize enough over the long haul.

 

[WurlyQ]

I am a regular double or nothing player myself and have made a few grand doing them I play $10 Dons and might soon be moving up to the $20 dons i play 12 at a time. I know Wurly isn't likey to be speaking crud because his statements seem quite close to accurate to me.

Wurly is there much difference in standard between the $10.40s and the $20.80s?

am I likely to get similar results I mean ROI wise.

This is just my estimate after seeing many people's results over the long haul, but I think the best ROI you can achieve MMT'ing is around 10% at the $10s and around 6% at the $20s. The reg/fish ratio is much worse in the $20s and the regs are more solid imo.

 

[suit2please]

http://www.pokerprolabs.com/rs03rs03/pokerstars.aspx

Just wanted to show this guy, I have almost 1000 hands with him in the $1.15 DoNs on PS. They can definitely be worth it.

 

[WurlyQ]

http://www.pokerprolabs.com/rs03rs03/pokerstars.aspx

Just wanted to show this guy, I have almost 1000 hands with him in the $1.15 DoNs on PS. They can definitely be worth it.

Why does he/it make it worth it...? I don't think anyone would want to be this guy just to make SN... DoNs can be worth it from a monetary standpoint but he/it is not the reason imo.

 

[bullishwwd]

Quoting myself from another post:



Fwiw, I play all my games on a single laptop.

With all due respect, 80% itm is just not sustainable. As stated before, you are running hot. I am not stating this to spite you. I am just tempering your expectations and warning you that you will eventual stop running hot. I have had several 50+ game streaks this year where I have run north of 70% itm as well as several streaks where I have won 10+ consecutive games but my overall itm for the year is 56%.

In DoNs, most games will last to the 100/200 blind level and beyond and inevitably turn into a shoving match at the end. Once you get to this stage, there are multiple ways to lose including a.) getting a good hand to shove but someone else has a better hand and they hold, b.) you shove and get called by a worse hand but they suck out c.) you're forced to call with a premium pair and they suck out, and d.) you are given no opportunities to shove until you are either forced to shove a crappy hand or you are forced to call at some point because you are closed to getting blinded out. Sustaining 80+% would mean that you fold anything except when you get it in with your overpair against two unders (~85% equity). This situation just does not materialize enough over the long haul.

What you have stated here is beginning to make better sense to me because I have been really close to going out and had to PUSH where I could have easily lost only to trip up or something to get back in it...easily could have lost when I got new life. I do not play anywhere near the # of DoNs that you do. May play 2 or 3 in one evening and skip several days before playing again.

What is this HUD I see people use sometimes...is this Heads Up Display? Is it something like a Poker Tracker or Holdem Manager software program? Do you use one of these and are they worth the money?

I also use a laptop but cannot get more than 4 screens that I can see and actually read at one time. I have never used the "stack table" mode so maybe that is what I am missing. Will try. Wally

 

[WurlyQ]

What you have stated here is beginning to make better sense to me because I have been really close to going out and had to PUSH where I could have easily lost only to trip up or something to get back in it...easily could have lost when I got new life. I do not play anywhere near the # of DoNs that you do. May play 2 or 3 in one evening and skip several days before playing again.

What is this HUD I see people use sometimes...is this Heads Up Display? Is it something like a Poker Tracker or Holdem Manager software program? Do you use one of these and are they worth the money?

I also use a laptop but cannot get more than 4 screens that I can see and actually read at one time. I have never used the "stack table" mode so maybe that is what I am missing. Will try. Wally

Yes, the HUD that people refer to is the heads up display and gives you general statistics on your opponents which is critical when playing a lot of tables because you can not watch most hands play out. It is a component of PT (poker tracker) and HEM (holdem manager). PT and HEM also give you the ability to analyze your own play as well as the play of others which is extremely important for improving your game. It is definitely worth the cost. Both PT and HEM have free trials so give them a shot.

As for different table layouts, I would not stack tables until you are comfortable with the games. Every game has its learning curve and DoNs are no different. Play lots of games, review your play, and think about what sorts of strategies are good. Only after you are comfortable with your play should you begin to add tables. Also, if you are playing 4 or fewer tables, I would just tile as opposed to stack. I only mentioned stacking because you asked how I play so many tables at the same time. Good luck.

 

[steak vegita]

I was doing the 20$ double or nothing sit n gos and i went from about 25$ to 117$ in like 5 hours. I won everyone of them tho but yah id say definatley worth it if u know what ur doing.

 

[salim271]

I dont play on stars so I know next to nothing about DoNs, how long to the avg games take at each level? at 1, 5, 10, 20?

 

[LRPharm54]

If you are really good at double or nothings and are doing well, it is only good sense to keep going and make it work. If it doesn't seem to be useful and you are losing more than winning, the obvious thing is to just play it once in a while and move on to games you are proficient at and are willing to hone your game and keep on learning. I personally like double or nothing and I only play a few, but I seem to do alright in them. Good luck.

 

[suit2please]

Why does he/it make it worth it...? I don't think anyone would want to be this guy just to make SN... DoNs can be worth it from a monetary standpoint but he/it is not the reason imo.

LOL, i wasn't saying he's the reason they are worth it, I was just showing a guy who mmt's the $1 DoNs for a couple hours a day it seems. The worth it part was just me saying it. I could careless about other peoples results, other peoples results mean nothing in comparison to your own. As for people saying 70%+ itm on these is a realistic % I wouldn't agree. I have a small sample of about 150 of these $1 DoNs on PS with ROI 16% and itm 67%. Its close to 70% yes, but these are also the $1s. Maybe people thinking 70%+ possible haven't actually looked at their stats, they are just guessing.

*Reaching Supernova just mass multi tabling $1 DoNs doesn't look like much fun.