Comprehensive odds chart for particular hands?

roundcat

roundcat

Creature of leisure
I did a search and came across the useful link ChuckTs posted (https://www.cardschat.com/showthread.php?t=67108) with odds based on number of outs, but does anyone know of anywhere on the web -- or in print -- that shows odds based on the likelihood of making a particular hand?

An example is near the bottom of this page: http://wizardofodds.com/holdem. However, it only contains information about odds for 4 to a straight and 4 to a flush on the flop and turn. There must be a resource out there that covers more hands and the odds of making them. I need to work on calculating pot odds and would like to commit all this stuff to memory.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

euro love
At some point, I really think you'd be better off just doing the calculations for any specific hand in your head. It's really not that difficult, but it requires some skill in analyzing the "texture" of the board (if you're talking about hold 'em, which you mostly likely do).

You hold [Js] [10s] on a flop of
[Kh] [10d] [7s]

You suspect that your opponent has AK. What's the odds of you beating him?

The first step to calculating this is counting your outs. Let's start with the easy ones:

Any ten or jack will give you a stronger hand than he has. There are 5 of those cards in the deck left (2 tens, 3 jacks), so you have five outs there. Furthermore, you have a backdoor flush and two separate backdoor straight draws. There are mnemonic estimation tricks for these kind of draws, and they're usually calculated to be worth roughly one out each (or slightly more).

Edit: ... accidently hit "post" button, didn't mean to. Continuing:

So, if we estimate your outs to be 7 (5 for the two pair/trip draw, and another two for the two backdoor draws) that means that you expect that 7 cards of the remaining 47 (or 45, but let's not go into that now, it doesn't really make a big difference) will win you the hand. So what then?

Your odds are 40-7. 40 of the cards will lose you the pot, 7 of them will win it for you. 40-7 is roughly 6-1, so you need pot odds better than 6-1 to continue.

If you want percentages specifically, you calculate 7/47 = 14.8%. Picking up the calculator is usually not fast enough, so the mnemonic trick is to think of the deck as containing 50 cards (close enough) and then every out will increase your chance of winning by 2% (since 1 card is 2% of 50). 7 outs = 7*2 = 14%.

If this seems like a lot to calculate, don't worry: It doesn't take long to get a hang of. Once you start just looking at each out as 2% of a chance to improve, the difficulty is just properly finding your outs. This is the harder part of it, but wasn't really what you asked. We could talk about that too, though, if you want.
 
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F Paulsson

F Paulsson

euro love
My post was really not well phrased, I see now. Let me know what I need to be more clear on and I'll expand on that.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
do you mean hands that you would draw to, roundcat?
here's a great outs chart:
https://www.cardschat.com/showthread.php?t=67108&highlight=odds+chart

(4 outs - gutshot straight draw
8 outs - open ended straight draw
9 outs - flush draw
12 outs - gutshot straight flush draw / gutshot straight draw & flush draw
15 outs - open-ended straight flush draw / open-ended straight draw and flush draw )

I personally have this one printed up and use it every time i play :p
 
G

GLG-man

Rock Star
F Paulsson said:
My post was really not well phrased, I see now. Let me know what I need to be more clear on and I'll expand on that.

It's Friday and it's been a long week so I'm going to ask instead of putting my math's brain into gear...

So basically you are saying to work out the % of you winning you X your outs by 2?

So if I have 9 outs I have an 18% chance of winning?
18 outs = 36% chance of winning?

I might have got this wrong..... it does'nt sound right anyway


G-man
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

euro love
... 18% chance of improving on the next card, yes. There are 9 cards out of 47 that you haven't seen. 9/47 = 19% (so, like I said, it's not spot-on but the "times two" rule works out decently).

9 outs is a flush draw. Your flush will come in about once every five times on the next card.

If you instead want to calculate effective odds, the odds of improving either on the turn or the river, when you've seen the flop in hold 'em, you need to perform another calculation. However, the effective odds, barring the event that the other guy is all-in (or that you would be if you called) can not be correlated to your pot odds, so they are usually not as interesting.
 
G

GLG-man

Rock Star
Ok that makes sense.

So using the same example lets say I'm on a flush draw I have a 19% chance of hitting on the turn, so 1/5.

If it does'nt hit on the turn I have a 19% chance of hitting it on the river right?

Working it out for the turn and river can you not just X 19% by 2 to = 38% (2/5) and this is roughly the chance you will hit a flush?


G-man
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

euro love
Yes, this is correct. Your chance is just a wee bit better on hitting it on the river than on the turn (do you see why?), but it's a marginal difference.
 
G

GLG-man

Rock Star
Yes, it's because the outs are the same but the total cards remaining is less so the % increases slightly. :)

Thanks for the help.


G-man
 
roundcat

roundcat

Creature of leisure
Thanks very much for the information! F_Paulsson, I think your post was very well-phrased, and I do need to get the hang of calculating odds based on number of outs. I don't find it difficult to count my outs, but that's where the process breaks down for me. I see a great explanation like yours in which the math really isn't that challenging, but it becomes like my dad trying to tutor me in math in high school, and I see the wall going right up and think, "OK, this is something I need to learn... later."

It just feels so much more comfortable for me to think, "OK, I've got a pocket pair, and the chance of flopping a set is 7.5 to 1."
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

euro love
Actually, counting your outs is deceptive. Because if you have AK on a J-T-9 board, as a scary example, even if the best hand currently out there is a pair of jacks, you may not have 6 outs. In fact, you may be drawing completely dead!

The art of guesstimating how many outs you have is one that takes a bit of studying, a bit of training, and a whole boatload of experience.
 
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