Winrate @ 2NL

[honeycrush]

Winrate in general and especially over a 15k hand sample is overemphasized, imo. Though somewhat rare, variance can make an expected 10bb/100 winner be a -10bb/100 loser over that sample size. In about 80% of cases, a person with an expected 10bb/100 winrate over 15k hands is just as likely to be at 1bb/100 as 20bb/100, so in all honesty a difference of 20bb/100 over a 15k sample size isn't really telling you much about your actual skill level.

This is a good tool to help you see what range of winrates become statistically relevant for a given sample size:
http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tools/variance_simulator/

Instead of winrate, focus on reviewing your hands and making sure you are making the correct decisions, even in hands you are winning. It's always possibly you could have extracted more value, or you made the wrong decision but ended up with a nice result.

As far as when to move up -- I would agree with others to say you should aim to move up as soon as you feel comfortable doing so and your bankroll allows (probably at least 25 buyins, and moving back down if you drop below 20 for the level). If you don't like the new level you are at or drop a few buyins super fast, don't be afraid to drop back down as almost all long-term successful players building a bankroll responsibly have had to do it.

That's great advice mrmonkey - thank you!

I have been reviewing my hands after every session. I usually look at the biggest losses but also look at a couple where I think I missed value and have been posting some of these in the HA section. I have made some mistakes - especially when it comes to missing value. But most of my losses have come from AIPF with premiums AA & KK and a few against short stacks with AK. There have also been some sets losing to higher sets and even a full house losing to villain who flops quads.

Thanks for the link. Really puts things into perspective.

 

[SofaKingCrazy]

most 'reads' you can directly interpret by looking to your hud and comparing stat x with stat y for any given player in their HUD and then comparing that to the norm.

what specific 'reads' do you feel you are missing? slash in what kind of spots do you usually end up tanking? i might be able to help point you in the right direction

Hmmmm running hudless, sad isn't it LOL

I'm still not sure if it's me or variance really. I find myself not believing someone who has been over aggressive and either running into a better hand or getting sucked out on. One just assumes after a while that they must be missing something.

I'm always good for a shadow session from a better player and if you wanted to help let me know. Sunday would be our best time considering the time difference between you and me. I would run 2 tables 2c/4cshallow (2NLH).

shoot me a PM

:evil:

 

[Arjonius]

In terms of adding more tables or moving up, it's not an all or nothing decision. I'm not saying to to both at once. However, you can certainly try each separately.

As for how many you'll be able to manage, I think both practice and aptitude factor in. You'll be able to do more with practice, but how many you'll top out at is different from person to person, largely due to aptitude.

 

[honeycrush]

In terms of adding more tables or moving up, it's not an all or nothing decision. I'm not saying to to both at once. However, you can certainly try each separately.

As for how many you'll be able to manage, I think both practice and aptitude factor in. You'll be able to do more with practice, but how many you'll top out at is different from person to person, largely due to aptitude.

Thanks Arjonius.

 

[JCgrind]

Hmmmm running hudless, sad isn't it LOL

I'm still not sure if it's me or variance really. I find myself not believing someone who has been over aggressive and either running into a better hand or getting sucked out on. One just assumes after a while that they must be missing something.

I'm always good for a shadow session from a better player and if you wanted to help let me know. Sunday would be our best time considering the time difference between you and me. I would run 2 tables 2c/4cshallow (2NLH).

shoot me a PM

:evil:

get a HUD ainec.

sounds like you have trouble folding. i guess i could watch your play for an hour or so

 

[LuckyChippy]

Don't worry about winrate, you want to be moving past 2nl as quickly as possible. Just earn what ever you need to move up. I know it's tempting to wait "until you know you can beat it" but it's not necessary, it's basically the same game and our aim is to make as much money as possible!

 

[honeycrush]

Don't worry about winrate, you want to be moving past 2nl as quickly as possible. Just earn what ever you need to move up. I know it's tempting to wait "until you know you can beat it" but it's not necessary, it's basically the same game and our aim is to make as much money as possible!

Thank you LC! Thanks to backing doomasiggy on Sunday and him cashing big, my bankroll is now looking very healthy. I think I'll be dipping my toes in the waters of 5NL very soon...

 

[benevg]

Don't worry about winrate, you want to be moving past 2nl as quickly as possible. Just earn what ever you need to move up. I know it's tempting to wait "until you know you can beat it" but it's not necessary, it's basically the same game and our aim is to make as much money as possible!

this.
you will start seeing differences between the levels, but they are really minor all the way up until, say, 25 or even 50.

if you are playing zoom/rush - the games play much "tighter", but this does not mean you should be playing with a lower VPIP/PFR. instead, focus more on position and player reads. try to steal at least 50% from the button, 30% from the CO - if they fold to those raises, as they probably will. IF you meet any resistance from unknowns (especially post-flop), be more inclined to give up. also, try to call more raises in position with high implied odds hands - small pairs, suited connectors, etc - then on occasion just float the c-bet if the board is not scary. many many players just give up after the flop.
all that said, i would not be playing those games if i were you. they tend to bring the bad beats much faster and to tilt you that much more. open 3 or 4 normal tables instead, and look at your HUD more. note that you do not need to focus on every player all the time - there are only a few players on each of your tables, and you only need a basic read on most of them anyway.

 

[honeycrush]

this.
you will start seeing differences between the levels, but they are really minor all the way up until, say, 25 or even 50.

if you are playing zoom/rush - the games play much "tighter", but this does not mean you should be playing with a lower VPIP/PFR. instead, focus more on position and player reads. try to steal at least 50% from the button, 30% from the CO - if they fold to those raises, as they probably will. IF you meet any resistance from unknowns (especially post-flop), be more inclined to give up. also, try to call more raises in position with high implied odds hands - small pairs, suited connectors, etc - then on occasion just float the c-bet if the board is not scary. many many players just give up after the flop.
all that said, i would not be playing those games if i were you. they tend to bring the bad beats much faster and to tilt you that much more. open 3 or 4 normal tables instead, and look at your HUD more. note that you do not need to focus on every player all the time - there are only a few players on each of your tables, and you only need a basic read on most of them anyway.

Thanks so much benevg. Great advice. I've finished with zoom. I'll be heading back to the regular tables for next session. Looking forward to finding some fish. :eating: Zoom was so difficult as a lot of the time I was playing readless and I'm obviously not good enough for that. Plus I was running really bad and running bad at Zoom means losing LOTS!

I do feel pleased that I didn't tilt though and continued playing my regular game even though the cooler and suckouts were coming thick and fast. That's one thing I learned/improved with this challenge if nothing else...

Actually I learned lots more too from the great and helpful replied to my questions and hand histories. Thanks you wonderful CC people!