*****Vinyl's GonnaCrushDAmicros 6max thread******

[duggs]

33 BI is borderline because 15BI downswings happen quite a bit and then you either:

1) go on monkey tilt and annihilate your bank completely (as in the past)
2) have to go down and then need to spend 2x the time to get back to the level (assuming variance goes into positive after you go down)

I would say 60BI is the minimum for comfortable play without any worry about BRM (but 100BI is the shit ).

for 60 to be your move up level you need to play until you have 119bi for a given level, which is absurd at micro stakes. 100bi is also overkill under 50nl unless you can't beat the next level.

especially when the money is replaceable as i assume it is for vin.

 

[LD1977]

Yeah, so? I don't see where is the urgency to move up.

With 5bb/100 winrate you get a BI every 2k hands, meaning 50BI in 100k hands which is doable in few months on normal tables and he is playing Rush.

The whole "replaceable money" thing is a bad attitude too, this way he just bleeds gradually while never having a good bank (= piece of mind while he plays).
I would rather see him deposit big once and then focus only on his play than depositing small chunks repeatedly.

With 1k bankroll he wouldn't even need to mention how his bank is doing.

"All i need is to hit that 15 BI upswing to get my MOJO back." - Couldn't be more clear.

 

[vinylspiros]

I know what you mean. It takes really good discipline to make folds and to do it consistently. Sometimes it's difficult to maintain that discipline through rough patches of variance. You start questioning yourself and your play when you believe you are making good folds but aren't getting the matching results. And you might even start making adjustments that aren't necessary or are harmful to your game.

I know the "maybe take a break" advice is generic, but I think it applies here. Take a day or two off, refresh your mind, and come back with a vengeance.

I hear you Mr. sandbag. .

In reality the recipe to win in poker is really simple. all it takes is to get as much as you can when you know you are ahead and to lose the minimum because you are good at whiffing out when you are behind.

If we win more and lose less our roll will grow. If we win alot, but don't make the right folds, and then LOSE a lot as well, we will breakeven at best if not losing.


When we tilt our emotions dont allow us to remain as calm as we are supposed to be and make the money when the time is right, so we force things to happen that aren't due yet. this is kind of whats happening to me. Im trying to force the action.
And this is leading me to play tricky or over aggro or whatever.

The important part is that i have realised this and am trying to plug it.


Going to take it slowly and one step at a time as im pretty sure that i got what it takes to beat the micros.



We dont even have to be tight aggressive or whatever .. ABC simple stuff will win 10NL IMO...... and patience.:albertein


thnks for your reply Mr. Sandbag.

 

[vinylspiros]

Yeah, so? I don't see where is the urgency to move up.

With 5bb/100 winrate you get a BI every 2k hands, meaning 50BI in 100k hands which is doable in few months on normal tables and he is playing Rush.

The whole "replaceable money" thing is a bad attitude too, this way he just bleeds gradually while never having a good bank (= piece of mind while he plays).
I would rather see him deposit big once and then focus only on his play than depositing small chunks repeatedly.

With 1k bankroll he wouldn't even need to mention how his bank is doing.

"All i need is to hit that 15 BI upswing to get my MOJO back." - Couldn't be more clear.

Im obviously playing more for the result than for the money. I could roll myself into 50NL tomorrow moring if i really wanted to. I used to play for the money. now i play to get better and some day if i get good enough, i assume the money will come by itself.

The challenge has changed from "win alot of money" into " prove to yourself that you can win the limit over a large sample".


and in all honesty its more fun this way. I do understand that LD's point of view is aimed at being "sure" that we never go busto and i certainly do agree with him.

But i believe that each person can set their own buy in "security" cushions depending on how frequent they experience huge variance and what kind of playing style they follow.

If were going to be playing tight and solid, i really don't understand why we would ever go on more than a 10 buy in downswing. If it starts going over 10 buy in's it means that something isn't right in our game.


Especially at the micros. I could be off here but im speaking strictly from my own experience.


SO, where im gong with this is, who even made the how many buy ins we are supposed to have rule? and what is right or wrong regarding BRM? Isn't it totally subjective and variant depending on who we are talking about?

 

[vinylspiros]

Guys, please take alook at this. This looks to me like a classic example of myself trying to push the money my way when i should probably have gotten away from the hand preflop. any opinions? Spewy? (assume both unknown as i dont think i bothered reading stats while in game)



Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php

Hero (Button) ($13.33)
SB ($24.18)
BB ($11.23)
UTG ($33.99)
MP ($4.06)
CO ($11.32)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A

, K

1 fold, MP raises to $0.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.50, 1 fold, BB raises to $1.90, MP raises to $4.06 (All-In), Hero raises to $13.33 (All-In), BB calls $9.33 (All-In)

^^^ when middle positiong shoves, is there really any reason for me to overshove when im already pretty sure BB is already interested in the hand and my AK could be running very thin? shouldnt i just be folding here and just losing .50 cents?

Flop: ($26.57) J

, 4

, 10

(3 players, 3 all-in)

Turn: ($26.57) 6

(3 players, 3 all-in)

River: ($26.57) 10

(3 players, 3 all-in)

Total pot: $26.57 | Rake: $1.32

Results below:

Spoiler

Hero had A

, K

(one pair, tens).
BB had K

, A

(flush, Ace high).
MP had Q

, Q

(two pair, Queens and tens).
Outcome: BB won $25.25

 

[Blobweird123]

33 BI is borderline because 15BI downswings happen quite a bit and then you either:

1) go on monkey tilt and annihilate your bank completely (as in the past)
2) have to go down and then need to spend 2x the time to get back to the level (assuming variance goes into positive after you go down)

I would say 60BI is the minimum for comfortable play without any worry about BRM (but 100BI is the shit ).

That is absurd lol. 40 BIs is comfortable, 20 is good to shot take though.

15BI downswings happen quite a bit? Sure if you are prone to spewing and tilt.

Don't slow down Vinyl, you're doing fine!

 

[LD1977]

I am reasonably sure someone already posted a link on this thread but I will put another one:

http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

Now if you want to learn about this you can do the following:

1) Put these values (just as example):
- Winrate in BB/100 = 5
- Observed = leave empty
- Standard deviation = 75 (this is quite normal deviation, you can easily check your own in your HM database and put that in) -- SD is the measure of play style you were mentioning.

2) Read the entire page carefully, look at the graphs and read explanations.

There are other variance calculators out there, use Google if you want to cross reference.


* Downswings mentioned show what a player who never tilts and is not influenced by losses at all expects to go through.

 

[Blobweird123]

I am reasonably sure someone already posted a link on this thread but I will put another one:

http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

Now if you want to learn about this you can do the following:

1) Put these values (just as example):
- Winrate in BB/100 = 5
- Observed = leave empty
- Standard deviation = 75 (this is quite normal deviation, you can easily check your own in your HM database and put that in) -- SD is the measure of play style you were mentioning.

2) Read the entire page carefully, look at the graphs and read explanations.

There are other variance calculators out there, use Google if you want to cross reference.

This is great and all but he's not playing for a living lol. RoR is there sure, but I know I wouldn't wanna sit at 2/5/10nl for years before moving up like you do.

 

[LD1977]

I started from zero 15 months ago and am now at 25NL Zoom with around 2.6k USD bankroll.

This is after I paid myself back for money spent on HM2, Leak Buster and Note Caddy so I am talking net profits after all my expenses were paid from the winnings.

Oh and today I played my first 1k hands at 25NL Zoom (EVbb/100 = 12, I am on a bit of a heater it seems).

What I have been trying to explain several times is that moving always in one direction (upwards) is easier and better from statistical and psychological standpoint.

If you want to "sit at 2/5/10nl for years" there is no better way than what you are advocating.

 

[duggs]

Yeah, so? I don't see where is the urgency to move up.

With 5bb/100 winrate you get a BI every 2k hands, meaning 50BI in 100k hands which is doable in few months on normal tables and he is playing Rush.

The whole "replaceable money" thing is a bad attitude too, this way he just bleeds gradually while never having a good bank (= piece of mind while he plays).
I would rather see him deposit big once and then focus only on his play than depositing small chunks repeatedly.

With 1k bankroll he wouldn't even need to mention how his bank is doing.

"All i need is to hit that 15 BI upswing to get my MOJO back." - Couldn't be more clear.

because the opportunity cost of being overly nitty with your roll is huge, firstly in an hourly sense, 2nd in a rake back sense, and thirdly the faster you move up the faster you improve, lastly from a motivational sense being overly nitty just removes the incentive to play.

with a 1k bankroll playing 10nl would be silly. replaceable money isn't a silly thing at all, if you live in a country where the US$ is worth half it is in buying power to others, then busting replenishing your roll bears a lower opportunity cost.

someone with unlimited funds out of roll can happily take +EV edges by sitting really good higher games knowing that losing isn't going to harm their ability to play games in the future. i.e. if I bust my roll i can't reload comfortably and play 25nl deep from life money, however if i was at 10nl i could comfortably take the hit and reload if needed. therefore an acceptable risk of ruin is much higher at stakes that are lower compared to your personal finances.

 

[duggs]

I started from zero 15 months ago and am now at 25NL Zoom with around 2.6k USD bankroll.

This is after I paid myself back for money spent on HM2, Leak Buster and Note Caddy so I am talking net profits after all my expenses were paid from the winnings.

Oh and today I played my first 1k hands at 25NL Zoom (EVbb/100 = 12, I am on a bit of a heater it seems).

What I have been trying to explain several times is that moving always in one direction (upwards) is easier and better from statistical and psychological standpoint.

If you want to "sit at 2/5/10nl for years" there is no better way than what you are advocating.

thats all well and good, but you don't really have a comparable case where you weren't super risk averse to compare it with, for all you know you could have been crushing 50nl and be shot taking 100nl with a 5k roll had you not been nitty. how much of that roll comes from grinding deposit bonuses and rake back tho?

 

[LD1977]

You are being illogical even though I understand your argument (it is just incorrect).

1) If money is so cheap just put in a decent bankroll and there you go.

2) It is well known and easily demonstrated that even big winners go through massive breakeven stretches (which themselves consist of upswings and downswings). I am talking leatherass class of players.

3) Most people are not perfectly cool with downswings, and since those are inevitable in the long term it is best to insulate yourself. One of the easy ways to do it is to have a deep BR.

4) Talk about "hourly" is murky when we are talking about players in the micros - the goal is to learn and improve, and one of the things to learn is proper BRM. It is not rocket science, reading that one page I linked to is enough to get an idea about the topic.

5) Moving down and up is more difficult and takes more time than advancing and defeating one level at a time. This is easy to understand I hope.

Edit: Correct, we can't know what alternate past would have been. My point is that I took the way that was pretty much guaranteed to succeed. I made quite a bit of use from promotions and bonuses, this is after all logical and I see nothing wrong with it. I made my first deposit after I had around 1700 USD bankroll and basically broke even while clearing it (I earned 600 USD bonus and 300 USD rakeback along the way with zero risk).

 

[vinylspiros]

guys i think you are going to have to agree to disagree.

LD's point are solid and i undertsand exactly where he is coming from.. It's just LD that although having safety cushions can never be bad, at the end of the day it really is personal choice what kind of a cushion everyone will be using.

Maybe 60 is too high and maybe 20 is too low but i think something like 25BI is a pretty good roll to have for any micro level. If we go below 20 we move down and then if we go back up we move back up. simple really.

Just dont want this to turn into a BRM gangsta war in the thread. LOL

 

[LD1977]

Yeah but moving down is depressing and prolongs the misery and the cycle of frustration goes on and on. I want to see you succeed.

 

[Blobweird123]

Ok it took you over a year. I used 20 BI rule back in October for my stake with Deuces and went from $100 to $1.2k in 2 months. Was there a risk of ruin? Sure there was. But had I not taken the chance, I might still be on 10nl waiting to run my roll up to 25nl.

Waiting till you hit 2.6k to shot 25nl is just insanity and it's actually -EV for the simple fact of all the time wasted that you could've been playing much higher by now.

You can argue till your blue in the face, but for a non-pro 20 BIs has always been a widely accepted roll to start shot-taking. And I doubt you'll convince me or the other regs in this thread to disagree.

 

[vinylspiros]

Yeah but moving down is depressing and prolongs the misery and the cycle of frustration goes on and on. I want to see you succeed.

I hear you bro. I want you to succeed as well. WE all talking here about ways to improve. I get where your coming from man 100% and thank you for the solid advice.

It's just that personally i don't have that kind of patience to wait till my roll gets THAT big to move up. Riskier ? maybe. Definitely riskier than the BRM your using. But its not totally shallow. you get me? 25 BI may not be the BEST BULLETPROOF ROLL, but it is something that a large part of the poker community seems to be using. ( according to things ive read here and there)

 

[duggs]

You are being illogical even though I understand your argument (it is just incorrect).

1) If money is so cheap just put in a decent bankroll and there you go.

2) It is well known and easily demonstrated that even big winners go through massive breakeven stretches (which themselves consist of upswings and downswings). I am talking leatherass class of players.

3) Most people are not perfectly cool with downswings, and since those are inevitable in the long term it is best to insulate yourself. One of the easy ways to do it is to have a deep BR.

4) Talk about "hourly" is murky when we are talking about players in the micros - the goal is to learn and improve, and one of the things to learn is proper BRM. It is not rocket science, reading that one page I linked to is enough to get an idea about the topic.

5) Moving down and up is more difficult and takes more time than advancing and defeating one level at a time. This is easy to understand I hope.

Edit: Correct, we can't know what alternate past would have been. My point is that I took the way that was pretty much guaranteed to succeed. I made quite a bit of use from promotions and bonuses, this is after all logical and I see nothing wrong with it. I made my first deposit after I had around 1700 USD bankroll and basically broke even while clearing it (I earned 600 USD bonus and 300 USD rakeback along the way with zero risk).

1/ because depositing $300 with a 5-10% possibility of redepositing $300 is not the same as depositing $600.

2/ so?

3/ wouldn't a better solution just be getting mentally cool with downswings?

4/ hourly does matter, because it talks about how fast your roll grows per hour, since you expect to move up in stakes our hourly is exponential, deliberately keeping it lower earlier has a negative effect on it long term.

5/ why? just stating its harder doesn't make it true, especially if you estimate yourself to be a winner at the next stake up.

6/ if we wanted GUARANTEED success why not only play free rolls? because then we are risking nothing, don't play poker if you are super risk averse, if you are reasonably risk tolerant then maximize your expectation.

 

[duggs]

Yeah but moving down is depressing and prolongs the misery and the cycle of frustration goes on and on. I want to see you succeed.

but moving down isn't any more depressing than not moving up in the first place.

 

[redwards92]

inb4 derail ..... owait

lol

 

[vinylspiros]

inb4 derail ..... owait

lol

LOL. They both are making solid points but we have to agree that there are different viewpoints regarding BRM.

each to his own. If LD wants to play super risk free, so be it, if someone wants to play a bit riskier,so be it.

there is no right or wrong. There is only what works for each person. These "rules" are all subjective views IMO.

 

[LD1977]

Blobweird:
- It is likely you are a better player than I am, or you rode a heater wave upwards (time will tell), or a mix of both.
- Time scale is actually not that important really since volume is key, I just mentioned time scale for myself as someone who started from zero both money and knowledge, not to mention I played one table in the beginning and then overdid it etc. until I found my comfort zone it takes time to acclimate especially for an older guy.
- If I had to do it again I would probably run through levels much quicker and easier, especially if I would play Zoom from the start.
- There was an argument a while back that only around 5% players are long term winners... while what I am advocating has pretty much 100% chance of success maybe "standard" practice is not ideal after all.

duggs:
3) It appears most people have a problem with this. Therein lies the rub.
4, 5) Lets assume you have a constant win rate of 5 bb/100 at both 5NL and 10NL (this is reasonable since levels are quite close in difficulty). Having 33BI and going into 13BI downswing means you move down and have to earn back not 13BI but 26BI - that takes longer.

Now, you can argue that creating a buffer first and then moving up second is the same thing but my points are:
A) If you do it my way there is pretty much no stress, no need to readjust to different blind levels and a kind of positive outlook and a feeling of real progress being made.
B) If you "shot take" losses hurt more, there is more risk of tilt, you need to readjust more and there is higher risk of frustration.

Thing is, I am certain that 100% rate of success > any other rate of success and if a player is unable to succeed slowly he wouldn't be able to do it quickly either (a heater can only last so long).

 

[LD1977]

Yeah sorry about derail I am gonna leave now since my series started.

BTW my playstyle is actually quite risky since my BRM allows it. Something else to think about!

 

[redwards92]

LOL. They both are making solid points but we have to agree that there are different viewpoints regarding BRM.

each to his own. If LD wants to play super risk free, so be it, if someone wants to play a bit riskier,so be it.

there is no right or wrong. There is only what works for each person. These "rules" are all subjective views IMO.

I agree.

 

[Blobweird123]

Fwiw this wasnt a bashing derail lol. Good to argue these opinions

 

[duggs]

Nothing inherently bad about being uber nitty, but claiming others are incorrect for being less nitty is definitely wrong