Questions for the more advanced players

diabloblanco

diabloblanco

Guest
I have a couple questions for those that are actually students of hold 'em and are at the more advanced levels with regards to knowledge of the game.

First, I was rummaging around in some old threads last night, just looking for something interesting and I came upon a thread where a player was bitching about an opponent in an online casino being dealt pocket aces 2 consecutive hands. From what I have seen so far this person complains a lot so the thread didn't really strike me until I got to a reply where another poster spat out some numbers and came up with odds of 48,000 and change to 1 of this actually happening. This number as I recall was based on the odds of it happening in one game then doubled or something similar. This confused me and here's why.

Statistically, isn't the chance of being dealt a particular hand, be it AA or 88, the same for each hand dealt. The act of gathering played cards, shuffling, cutting, and dealing are all factors that are completely detatched from the game and are indvidual random events that contribute to the unpredictability of the dealt cards. Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't that mean, when simplified, that the odds of being dealt a particular hand no matter the rank don't fluctuate with number of consecutive hands? Doesn't that also mean that pocket aces have an equal statistical probability of being in the hole on every single hand that is dealt? Given of course that no other mitigating factors are changed such as number of players at the table.

If what I am thinking is correct then why all the complaining from people when opponents are dealt consecutive pocket pairs in online play where RNG's are used? The only factor that seems to me would affect the probability of pairs would be the number of players in the game. Am I completely wrong or right? Thanks for reading this long post and in advance for your thoughts on this.
 
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VegasGrinder

Guest
The odds of gettin a specific hand 2 times in a row will always be larger than just getting it once. This is with anything in life that have mathmatical odds.

To make it simple. If you have 10-1 odds on something. The odds of you getting it 2 times is 20-1. The odds of getting it 2 times in a row would be even larger.
 
diabloblanco

diabloblanco

Guest
But isn't that "statistically speaking", not true...I mean I understand that it is improbbable...but each dealing of the cards is a single solitary act that irrespective of the previous hands can come up any 2 cards. I get the concept that it may "seem" less likely that it will happen, but when dealing with an inanimate, manipulated object, like a deck of cards it seems to me like there are too many variables for any outcome to be accurately predicted. Its all realative....

I am off to the net in search of what I am looking for, I will post back. Maybe I am just making this more complex than in actually is.

BTW, VegasGrinder, thanks for the reply. I would like to know, however, how one would come to this conclusion regarding this specific example. I'm not looking for a simplification of it, or someone to say "you're wrong." I want to be shown how I'm wrong and how to correctly figure the odds the right way.
 
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buckster436

buckster436

Cardschat Hall of Famer - RIP Buck
Awards
2
in our noble poker freeroll last week i got pocket aces two hands in a row at the beginning of the tourney ( and i showed them ) then the cards went down hill from there. i would rather get pocket AA towards the end of the tourney rather than the beginning. ( i went all-in with them both times and no one called,i did that cause everytime i play slo-play them someone catches something and beats me) 65%-- 35% percent of the time.

buckster436:rolleyes:
 
IrishDave

IrishDave

A Member
I got pocket Q's last night back to back in a ring game - lost on both to a river though. I agree that I'd rather have the good cards come later as if you get the nuts early the cards tend to fall off quickly. In a SNG I played last week the first hand I got was 2-2, flop was 2-2-A. Quads to start out and it was the last real hand I got...
 
diabloblanco

diabloblanco

Guest
I really appreciate the comments, but please don't hi-jack this thread, I'm really looking for the solution to this and I don't want it to get miles off-track. Thanks.
 
HoldemChamp

HoldemChamp

Rock Star
Well,

I read a post where some person sad the got them 3 times in a row.

I myself have gotten them two times in a row more than once.

The other day playing Omaha. I got AK 10 times in like 340 hands and QJ almost as many times during that 40 hands as well. Obviously not as rare as getting AA 2 or 3 times in a row. But, still very odd. Worse part is none of them won.

Talk about a bad streak. LOL

The next day I doubled up from what I had lost. I felt better.
 
Grumbledook

Grumbledook

Guest
It was me that got them 3 times in a row, only had to show them the last time, won the first one preflop and the other on the flop.

Sure its long odds of it happening, that doesn't mean it can't happen though.
 
bpazjr13

bpazjr13

Rock Star
Knowledge for you:

The odds of drawing AA on any one hand is 1/221. It is a single event. The odds of drawing AA on the next hand are also 1/221, I agree. It is also a single event.

However, when you look at the odds of drawing AA 2 times in a row, then you are looking at a single event, that event being AA coming up 2 times in a row, and the odds of that is 1/221 times 1/221, or 1/48841. If you want to look at the single event of AA coming up 3 times in a row, the it is 1/10,793,861,
 
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The_Missnary

The_Missnary

Guest
WesCharge said:
this will accure exactly 0.00204746% of the time
Nice job on the math! I did it on paper and I was close.. Here's how it looked:

Chance of any one ace is 4/52.
Chance of getting another ace is 3/51.
Chance of getting pocket aces (or any other) is 4/52 X 3/51, or 0.4%

Chance of getting aces two hands in a row is 4/52 X 3/51 X 4/52 X 3/51, or .002%.
 
X

xdmanx007

Legend
diabloblanco said:
I have a couple questions for those that are actually students of hold 'em and are at the more advanced levels with regards to knowledge of the game.

First, I was rummaging around in some old threads last night, just looking for something interesting and I came upon a thread where a player was bitching about an opponent in an online casino being dealt pocket aces 2 consecutive hands. From what I have seen so far this person complains a lot so the thread didn't really strike me until I got to a reply where another poster spat out some numbers and came up with odds of 48,000 and change to 1 of this actually happening. This number as I recall was based on the odds of it happening in one game then doubled or something similar. This confused me and here's why.

Statistically, isn't the chance of being dealt a particular hand, be it AA or 88, the same for each hand dealt. The act of gathering played cards, shuffling, cutting, and dealing are all factors that are completely detatched from the game and are indvidual random events that contribute to the unpredictability of the dealt cards. Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't that mean, when simplified, that the odds of being dealt a particular hand no matter the rank don't fluctuate with number of consecutive hands? Doesn't that also mean that pocket aces have an equal statistical probability of being in the hole on every single hand that is dealt? Given of course that no other mitigating factors are changed such as number of players at the table.

If what I am thinking is correct then why all the complaining from people when opponents are dealt consecutive pocket pairs in online play where RNG's are used? The only factor that seems to me would affect the probability of pairs would be the number of players in the game. Am I completely wrong or right? Thanks for reading this long post and in advance for your thoughts on this.
You are correct... For example you will not hit a 4 flush draw on the turn or river 35% of the time you have a 35% chace of hitting everyhand! I believe that is simplifing what you are getting at. You can't look at a hand like well I have a 1 in 4 chance and missed the last 3 so the next should fall. The percentages are the percentages for an individual hand. Yes you are correct MOST players don't look at it this way but it the correct way to look each hand. Although over 100,000 hands or so the numbers should be close! I hope that is what you were looking for if I need to clarify I am happy to try :hmmmm2:
 
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M

mrbrightside

Freeroll #16 Winner
diablo is right. the events are independent of each other. its like rolling a dice 1/6 odds of hitting a 6. if you roll it again you have the exact same odds of hitting a 6, 1/6. If i could remember my statistics terminology it would be a bit clearer.
 
X

xdmanx007

Legend
bpazjr13 said:
xdman what the hell are you not smoking?
Apparently not anything good enough.... I still remember last night not start remembering last week a month from now :)
 
bpazjr13

bpazjr13

Rock Star
yea, but the odds of hitting two 6's in a row is not 1/6 it is 1/36 and you dont need to be a genius to figure it out
 
MsStyque

MsStyque

Guest
I have never been able to calculate odds as math is not my forte'. However, from the above posts, it does not seem that this is unlikely but not toooo unlikely.
 
diabloblanco

diabloblanco

Guest
Thank god people finally got what I was saying. And no bpazjr13, you don't have to be a genius to figure out this particular problem, which is good because you got it wrong so there's still hope for ya. Unless you're smarter than Albert Einstein, your dice throwing analogy is 100% wrong. When a dice is tossed, the chance of it hitting any one particular number is 1 in 6. On the second, third, fourth, all the way through 3,000,000th toss, the chance of it hitting the same number doesn't change. Same with cards.

BTW, I would have left that first sentence out of my post if you hadn't made the inference that other posters were less than intelligent for disagreeing, especially since they were correct.
 
bpazjr13

bpazjr13

Rock Star
so..you are saying that rolling a 6 once has the same chance as rolling two 6's in a row does?

that makes absolutely no sense at all...

roll number 1 - you roll a six 1/6 of the time
roll number 2 - you roll another six 1/36 of the time
roll number 3 - you roll another six 1/216 of the time

not...

rolling 3 sixes in a row has a 1/6 chance of happening
 
diabloblanco

diabloblanco

Guest
The odds of it happening are 1 in 6 on each individual roll. They are all seperate occourances independant of one another. How can the probability change? Does the dice still have six sides? If it does the answer is 1 in 6. On 6000 rolls, the 6 will come up close to 1000 times. Thus, a 1 in 6 chance.
 
bpazjr13

bpazjr13

Rock Star
yes in 6000 rolls it will come around 1,000 times but the odds of it coming up 1,000 times in a row is not 1000/6000 (1/6)..that is close to impossible

you are wrong....go get an education in probabilities
 
diabloblanco

diabloblanco

Guest
Are you going to apologize when you are proved wrong? Why do you assume I am uneducated? So far, you have proven that you are just an asshole, not an educated man. My goal now is to prove positive that you aren't as sharp as you think you are. If, and that is a huge IF, I am wrong (which I am all but positive I'm not), I will admit it. Will you be a big enough person to do the same? Probably not.
 
S

SwgCrazy

Guest
:icon_boun I hate to say it, but the original poster of this thread is wrong. Sorry, not trying to be offensive but bpazjr13 has it correct. The odds of hitting a 6 is 1/6 the first time and every 6000 rolls you will roll close to 1000 6's, but it wouldn't be in a row. The odds of hitting 1000 straight 6's is in the billions/trillions:1
Sorry, you could probably look it up on the internet under like learn probabilities or something.
 
Four Dogs

Four Dogs

Legend
VegasGrinder said:
The odds of gettin a specific hand 2 times in a row will always be larger than just getting it once. This is with anything in life that have mathmatical odds.

To make it simple. If you have 10-1 odds on something. The odds of you getting it 2 times is 20-1. The odds of getting it 2 times in a row would be even larger.
Not quite. If the odds of something happening are 10:1, the odds of it happening again are 100%. The odds of it happening consecutively are 10:1 x 10:1 = 100:1
 
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