Questions for the more advanced players

[bpazjr13]

oh, im so sorry, i was wrong ...the 2.35 million should be 2.35 billion (and for those of you who dont know how to get that again 221^5) and (if you dont know what that means it is 221x221x221x221x221 = 2.35 billion) that would be for getting AA five times in a row....im glad to see that you care enough to go looking for my mistakes, at least i can admit it, but it was human error instead of my theory being totally ****ed up

although it may be dry FourDogs..at least you are right

OMG, I was just looking over some old posts of Mr. Statistics to get a feel for how knowledgeable he really is and 2 things lept off the page. First, Mr. Statistics bpazjr, told another player in a thread called "stuck on duh" that the odds of being dealt AA were 2.35 million to 1. Strange. Second, if anyone cares to take the time, he has a habit of talking down to people and generally being as ass when he comments in threads. Bpazjr, you are a schmuck that now has zero credibility in my opinion. Winning this particular argument for you, will be like winning the gold medal at the Special Olympics, when its over, you're still retarded.

boy, where did you dig that one up from? sounds like you found it next to all the "Your mama's so fat, stupid, ugly jokes" I made fun of ppl who used those back in the early 90's. keep trying there white devil fag and maybe get some original jokes or thoughts about you STILL being wrong no matter how big a schmuck you think I am.

oh yea, whats better? A retard with a gold medal (ME) or a retard with a silver medal (YOU)? i hope you say what i think you are going to. hahaha

 

[RammerJammer]

The odds of gettin a specific hand 2 times in a row will always be larger than just getting it once. This is with anything in life that have mathmatical odds.

To make it simple. If you have 10-1 odds on something. The odds of you getting it 2 times is 20-1. The odds of getting it 2 times in a row would be even larger.

Wow. To put it tactfully, this assertion is "uninformed" and without any mathematical basis.

But at least bpaz is back in form as the forum's quintessential jerk. I missed his rants during the last month or so of relative silence. Must have been doing 30 days in the county stir.

 

[diabloblanco]

My sentiments exactly rammerjammer. Someone needs to take his internet priveledge away, People like him make baby jesus cry.

 

[icepari]

JUST UNDERSTAND THERE IS NO SUCH AS MEMORY with cards.Think about it you have one deck you play one hand and get AA.After this hand you go **** your wife or something .Then come back and you sit for one more hand THE chance to get AA will be the same again.And Four Dogs you are write AK and AA is different i meant AK,AQ of course there are more chance to make AK than AA sorry for this just getting mad about some posts.

four DOGS i meant you are RIGHT

And about the guy posting "The odds of gettin a specific hand 2 times in a row will always be larger than just getting it once. This is with anything in life that have mathmatical odds." this is nonsence this is in life.We are speaking on theory cause in life you can hit AA 1000000000 times even if you play with 500000 cards and only 2 aces.Cause if there is a 1/10000000000000000 chance something to happen it might happen 10/10 times there is no reason why not

And one more question bpazjr13 throw a coin it flips face up.Then you pick up the coin and the chance to flip face up is smaller is this what are you saying if you are saying this you are either not so smart or a ****ing genuis smarter than everybody that have made math really.I will scan my stupid Math book and post it here so maybe you will understand THAT UNLIKE YOU the coin doesn`t care about the last time.Last line you can have 1/52 chance to get A heart if you draw from the deck .After you put it back shuffle the deck you will AGAIN have a 1/52 chance of drawing it this meant from 52 chances you will always take it there is no possible way this number will grow.

 

[bpazjr13]

the chance of a coin hitting heads 9 billion times in a row is not 50 % ...get that through your moronic dinosaur stupid ass brains

http://arnoldkling.com/apstats/coins.html

Wisdom from my boy Pasqual

if you retards dont learn from this. then there is no hope for you all, i learned this back in school about the triangle and probabilities...what the hell kind of school did you attend?

 

[icepari]

"In probability there is no such thing as a "hot hand." We would say that the chance of Kobe getting heads on the next flip is exactly 1/2, regardless of what his first five flips happened to be." This is from your site.
.And big mouth tell me when you have 52 cards the chance to draw Ah is 1/52 .When you shuffle one more time the deck what is the chance to get AH tell me plss .Again i will say it it cannot be more than 1/52 cause after 52 draws you will draw the damn AH

And the best thing from the site you gave and killed your own comments :
""Prices have no memory and yesterday has nothing to do with tomorrow. Every day starts out fifty-fifty."
--'Adam Smith', The Money Game"
In translation for you .Every throw is has nothing to do with the previous so every throw starts 50/50

 

[diabloblanco]

Thank you. Each hand is independent of the previous hand, therefore the chances of drawing any particular hand does not change for consecutive deals. That's the way I understand it.

I swear I used to think of it in the same terms as the others here. Then I saw a program on the Science channel about Einstien which explained the probabilities in the manner which I described.

 

[bpazjr13]

we all know each hand is independent of each other, but the probabilities of getting AA once is not the same as getting AA 9 trillion times in a row

picking the Ah from a deck is 1/52...doing it the second time is 1/52.

doing them back to back is 1/2704, doing it the third time is 1/52, doing it three times in a row is 1/140608

over and over i explain this and you still dont get it do you?

 

[diabloblanco]

Douche. Are you aware what people here think about you?

 

[xdmanx007]

:toilet:

 

[Nick]

Guys, first of all, take it easy. There's no need to argue over such a petty subject. Keep it nice and simple and listen to each other's input. By all means debate the topic, but please, no offensive language, or insults.

 

[diabloblanco]

No problem...thanks for intervening.

 

[RammerJammer]

we all know each hand is independent of each other, but the probabilities of getting AA once is not the same as getting AA 9 trillion times in a row

picking the Ah from a deck is 1/52...doing it the second time is 1/52.

doing them back to back is 1/2704, doing it the third time is 1/52, doing it three times in a row is 1/140608

over and over i explain this and you still dont get it do you?

That's about as simple an explanation as it gets, fellers. I'm pretty thick when it comes to numbers, but even I get this one. Nice job.

 

[diabloblanco]

My only point is that you are just as likely to draw the same 2 cards on the second deal as you are the first...and so on and so forth for an infinite number of hands. Bpazjr even made my point in his post that you just quoted. He stated that on the first pick the chance was 1/52, and on the second the chance was STILL 1/52. If that's not back to back, I don't know what is. He just made my point. First and second are consecutive, or back to back. In one sentence he says the chance remains 1/52 then he says the chance is 1/2704. Who's confused?

 

[colin_147]

diabloblanco - Everyone can see what you are trying to say - yes the chances of getting any any 2 cards on any draw is the same, correct. Consecutive hands then obviously the odds have to multiply, its a basic math. The vast, vast majority of those that have posted have agreed on this theory, so your questoin has been answered

Yes you are right and you are wrong. Agree to disagree and move on

 

[diabloblanco]

Please specify where I made an incorrect statement. Thanks.

 

[colin_147]

Please specify where I made an incorrect statement. Thanks.

You are correct in that each individual roll has a set number of odds.

You are incorrect in that the odds of this happening on successive occasions remains the same. If someone said to you "I will bet you my $10 you cant roll a 6 with that dice. If you do it, I will give you $50, if you dont you give me $10". That seems a fair bet, 1/6 chance. If he said to you "I bet you $10 you cant roll a 6 with that dice 10 times in a row, you have to roll a six every time. I will give you $50 if you do it, you give me $10 if you dont".

Now are you telling me the odds he offered you for the first bet are the same as for the second bet? NOcguru:

I dont see why it makes any difference to any poker game to be honest.....and this after all is what this forum is about......

 

[diabloblanco]

I stated that the odds do not fluctuate from deal 1 to deal 500. That's it. Chances of hand XX coming up are identical for each seperate, independant deal.

And you're right, this doesn't have much to do with poker theory. If you read what I posted, it was in regards to players complaining that hand XX came up 3 times during a table game or 2 times consecutively. I just got sick of the whining basically, and decided to post a rant in the form of a question so that I didn't seem like a smart ass know-it-all.

 

[colin_147]

No problem mate, its good to have healthy discussions

When I get AA twice, I just think I am the lucky b@stard at the table and I deserve it!

Good luck at the tables

 

[diabloblanco]

No problem. Good luck at the tables.

 

[xdmanx007]

Well this is something you need to get right. It is at the core of really undertsanding the game... Good Luck fingering it out!

 

[RammerJammer]

My only point is that you are just as likely to draw the same 2 cards on the second deal as you are the first...and so on and so forth for an infinite number of hands. Bpazjr even made my point in his post that you just quoted. He stated that on the first pick the chance was 1/52, and on the second the chance was STILL 1/52. If that's not back to back, I don't know what is. He just made my point. First and second are consecutive, or back to back. In one sentence he says the chance remains 1/52 then he says the chance is 1/2704. Who's confused?

You are, diablo. Read bpazjr's post again. He's saying that the odds of an individual occurence are 1/52. The odds of it happening a second time taken as an individual occurence are still 1/52. But it is a by-the-math-textbook formula of probability that if you are computing the chances of being dealt the same card twice in a row (which is a mathematical problem all its own and separate from the single-deal 1/52), you multiply 1/52 x 1/52 = 1/2704.

Some things you simply have to accept and move on. It's not open to interpretation or opinion. It is a mathematical absolute. It's just how you compute the probability of any random event occuring twice in a row. Now...who's confused?

 

[icepari]

Rammer pls listen to me.There is no such thing as multiplying.Answer me something if you throw a dice the chance to hit 6 is 1/6.Then after 10 days if you take the dice what will be the chance to hit 6. Answer me !

 

[diabloblanco]

Exactly which part of the quote above of mine is incorrect?

Also, you should re-read his post. He is saying that the chances on one is 1/52 and on the second its still 1/52, in my estimation 1 followed by 2 is in fact consecutive or 2 in succession. Your thoughts?

Just as icepari says, there is no multiplying. Imagine a 52 sided die. One cast the chance of hitting a 1 is 1:52. The second cast, same odds. You can throw the damn thing for three days straight and the odds neither decrease or increase. Its 1/52 every time. Same with the cards, the odds do not change.

 

[RammerJammer]

Ok, this is the last bit of energy I'm going to devote to this discussion. First of all, I don't know or care about the dice roll thing. I'm not even sure where that came into the conversation. Except that there are six sides to a die. And your chances of rolling any side one time is 1/6. And the chances of rolling the same side twice in a row is 1/36.

Secondly, I didn't write the books on statistics and probabilities. If you wish to look at every card hand dealt as an individual event, standing on its own, then the odds of being dealt any one card in the deck is 1 in 52. If you want to view each and every poker hand as an individual event, then the odds remain 1 in 52.

But that's not the question here. The question we are asking is, 'What are the odds of that event happening twice in a row?' The scientifically accepted means of arriving at that answer has been explained here ad nauseum, which is that you multiply the odds of the first event times itself. You can't "forget multiplying". It's like saying 2 plus 2 does NOT equal four, so "forget adding". Look it up for yourselves! Why stay ignorant about it? Unless you think that the entire field of mathematics is bogus, in which case we're all wasting our breath.

As far as that goes, believe it or don't. It doesn't change the laws of probability any more than not believing that an anvil will fall to earth if dropped from your roof changes the law of gravity. I'm done here. Over and out!