Poker odds and math

[Bentheman87]

Can someone just confirm that I'm doing the odds and math correctly while I play? Here's how I use pot odds while playing in tournaments...preflop, I take my position into account over my pot odds. If I'm in the BB with a 9 5 offsuit and someone from late position raises 3x the BB, I'll fold it even though it is probably mathematically correct to call. I would be getting 2.25:1 preflop if the button raises and the sb folds, and 9 5 os is only a 1.7:1 dog to two overcards, so if I somehow knew he had an AK, I'd still fold because IMO being out of position is too big of a disadvantage to play. I wouldn't be seeing all 5 cards for sure, and if we both miss he's in a better position to bluff me off the hand on the flop or turn. Late in a tournament I start to ignore position and focus on the pot odds more. If the button is very short stacked and pushes all in on me, and I'm also very short stacked, I'll put him on a hand like A-x or K - x, I'll find my pot odds. If they're greater than the odds of my hand winning against his suspected hand then I'll call. So if I'm getting around 2:1 I'll call with almost anything, like a 9 7 os or a 7 6 os, the only danger is if I'm dominated (for example I have 9 7 and he has ace 7), then I'm almost a 3:1 underdog and folding would have been correct. If I'm in the BB and I'm getting 2.5:1 or better against a shortstack that pushed, I will literally call with any two cards. Because it's very unlikely I'll make a mathematically incorrect decision, the only times would be if he has a bigger pair than both my hole cards. Anyway that's my approach to playing preflop, is this a good way to play? Do you guys do the same?

Postflop against one opponent I put my opponent on a possible hand and figure out my odds of drawing out (if I know I'm beat) for ONE CARD only, I don't even think much about the river if I'm currently on the flop about to go to the turn. I just take it one street at a time, if I miss on the turn I'll repeat the same thing again. Some people use effective odds which are the odds of drawing out for two cards to come but taking into account the bets they think they'll have to call or that they can win if they hit. I found this way a lot more time consuming and difficult so I don't use it. But are effective odds a lot better? The method I use doesn't take implied odds into account much. And one more thing, if I am drawing but I suspect even if I hit I might already be beat, I'll lower my outs by a little. Like if I have AK and the flop comes 10 6 2, I pretend I have 4 or 5 outs instead of 6 since he might have trips or two pair. Same thing if I have a straight draw and there's 3 two a flush on the board, I'll pretend I have 6 or 7 outs instead of 8.

 

[Bentheman87]

Sorry if it's a lengthy post, but that's basically a short summary of how I play. I'm just wondering if this is a good way to play and how you guys use odds while playing.

 

[Emtiy]

I don't entirely agree, but that maybe just depends on playing style. I think position is always very important, maybe even more in later stages of tournaments. The example of 95 is a good one, maybe you indeed get the good odds, but I agree position is very important and I would also fold. In the later stages of the tournament it depends on read and blind levels too. I wouldn't call a big raise on the button, simply because he probably has a better hand and you should be able to find a better spot to put your chips in with the best hand (if the BB is too expensive already you can call ofcourse.) The button could have waited a whole round for cards and knows you call with a lot of hands, so he probably doesn't have trash.

Postflop it's better to put your opponent on a range of hands than a single one. If you just focus on one possibility you can easily be very wrong and lose a lot of money. I'm not sure about effective odds, but I definately use implied odds, it's not that hard and an important factor for some decisions.

For example: If you have the nut flush draw you can call to better odds than just the chance of hitting your flush, especially if you think your opponent has something like top pair or two pair. If you hit the draw you can extract a lot more money from him making profit in the long run. You don't even have to do the exact calculations, altough it is nice to do it once in a while to get the feeling for what's a good call and what not.