Playing a strong flush draw

[Steveg1976]

I get what you are saying 100% The reason I wanted the c-bet in the example was that it showed that the opponent was interested in the hand.

Ultimately the question Im getting at.. and I think the example I chose is a bad one!! is this

If I was prepared to call a shove because I have a nut flush draw and the odds of calling the shove are correct.. then is it correct for me to shove if the oppertuity arises. Almost like a reverse call.

This way im getting fold equity against lesser hands and correct calling odds (but im not the one who is calling) .. I hope that last bit makes sense.. I dont know how else to describe it.

Without doing a bunch of calculations if you in a situation were the odds would be correct for a shove by the villian to be called and you are allowed to make the first move then I would say always take the initiative and shove, giving yourself at least a small chance of the villian folding.

 

[BelgoSuisse]

Without doing a bunch of calculations if you in a situation were the odds would be correct for a shove by the villian to be called and you are allowed to make the first move then I would say always take the initiative and shove, giving yourself at least a small chance of the villian folding.

that is only true if you have fold equity. If you know for certain that villain's range is ahead of you and that he folds 0% of it, you should not put any more money in the pot on your own initiative and can only pay his bets if you have correct pot odds.

If you think he folds some of his range, you do need to make the kind of computations i made above (or guesstimate it at least) to determine if shoving is good or not.

 

[Stu_Ungar]

Thanks for that Belgio

Ill have a look at that for a few different ranges of the opponent and see what the numbers look like.

 

[zachvac]

I get what you are saying 100% The reason I wanted the c-bet in the example was that it showed that the opponent was interested in the hand.

Ultimately the question Im getting at.. and I think the example I chose is a bad one!! is this

If I was prepared to call a shove because I have a nut flush draw and the odds of calling the shove are correct.. then is it correct for me to shove if the oppertuity arises. Almost like a reverse call.

This way im getting fold equity against lesser hands and correct calling odds (but im not the one who is calling) .. I hope that last bit makes sense.. I dont know how else to describe it.

If you don't think he will ever bluff, then yes. If you think he will bluff, especially with worse flush draws, then it's better to let him bluff it all off. We need an example to see for sure if the equity we gain from bluffs shoving into us is bigger than the fold equity we get by making hands with odds to call us fold.

 

[Steveg1976]

that is only true if you have fold equity. If you know for certain that villain's range is ahead of you and that he folds 0% of it, you should not put any more money in the pot on your own initiative and can only pay his bets if you have correct pot odds.

If you think he folds some of his range, you do need to make the kind of computations i made above (or guesstimate it at least) to determine if shoving is good or not.

Damn you Belgo you can't just let me be lazy can you

 

[Stu_Ungar]

If you don't think he will ever bluff, then yes. If you think he will bluff, especially with worse flush draws, then it's better to let him bluff it all off. We need an example to see for sure if the equity we gain from bluffs shoving into us is bigger than the fold equity we get by making hands with odds to call us fold.

No probs, Im off to bed in a bit but will post a couple of examples tomorrow for us to look over.

 

[inthislifeonly]

SLOW ROLL THEM

just calling is the smart thing to do. then raise or reraise at the turn or river. but if theres a pair on the board.... look out for the fullhouse son.

 

[PHR90]

I think calling, and re-raise in the river or all in in the turn, is the best thing to do. you cant waste a flush draw with an agressive player.

 

[tdude]

if he has been playing loose, yes. if he has been playing tight, no. I mean if he goes all in, even if you do have correct odds, folding would be a better idea depending on where you are in the tournament

 

[spunka]

The flop isnt paired and gives me a nut flush draw.

Now had he gone all in, I would have been getting correct odds to call.

If flop is a danger flop (heavy on straight draws or including some Ace/king/Queen/Jack /T) .. I would think twice.

I don't understand where you get, "you are getting the correct odds to call from" ? you have around 9 + (3) outs and maybe your ace ain't good.

This mean you recon he will fold his big hand roughly 25% of the time. ( I don't think he will, I would guess around 10% max).

 

[Bengals_Boy]

i try not to chase the flush too early on unless u r gettin min bets.And if its a monster raise and im feelin balzy i hardly ever hit.I dont know the odds off catchin after the flop but i get busted up more times than i hit it.

 

[m00]

Its hypothetical so if the stack sizes make a difference make some up and say how they effect your decision.

wow, especially since its a tournament, you wont find a "correct" answer without details like stacksize, stage of tournament, and so on..

If you play a hand only because of the cards on the board, your pockets and THREE hands that you put your opponent on, you'll play the hand bad.

imo.

 

[Xyphon]

How do you do that? You have supernatural abilities ? That is a super tight range for hand reading on the flop.

Lol. I want to have that ability! Must say a funny post. Also, what are the odds on hitting a flush when your drawing after the flop?

 

[Stu_Ungar]

OK a more concrete example. Sorry I didnt post it yesterday but I have been a little busy.

Cash $10 NL game
Blinds are 0.5/10

Stack sizes

Player 7 $8.50
Player 8 $5.25


Players 2+3 limp
Players 4-6 fold
Pllayer 7 raises to $0.50
Player 8 is dealt [As Ks]
Player 8 raises to $1.50
Players 9 + Sb + BB + players 1- 6 all fold.
Player 7 calls $1 to make it $1.50

Pot is $3.65

Flop is [Js 8s 4d]

Player 7 raises All in $3.75
Player 8 hero?
Pot is $7.40 cost of calling is $3.75 pot odds are 1.97:1
Odds of hitting a flush by the river are 1.86:1

So call here seems correct?

So if the call is correct is the reverse true?

Flop is [Js 8s 4d]

Player 7 now checks
Player 8 (hero) raises $3.75
Pot is still $7.40 and cost of calling is $3.75 pot odds are 1.97:1
Odds of hitting a flush by the river are 1.86:1

Nothing about the pot has changed, just that the hero now makes the bet instead of calling it.

This should open up a ton of fold equity meaning a fold from the villian is likely. Should he call you are on exactly the same draw as before.. which you were going to call.

Now as for my magical hand reading abilities.. He sometimes has AA!! I want the villian to be on a hand.. any hand that I dont beat in the flop so that I either win the pot via a fold or by out drawing him.. I'm not trying to overcomplicate the situation by looking at the times I dont hit the flush but win anyway, so if he calls assume he is ahead on the flop.

 

[m00]

This should open up a ton of fold equity meaning a fold from the villian is likely. Should he call you are on exactly the same draw as before.. which you were going to call.

Now as for my magical hand reading abilities.. He sometimes has AA!! I want the villian to be on a hand.. any hand that I dont beat in the flop so that I either win the pot via a fold or by out drawing him.. I'm not trying to overcomplicate the situation by looking at the times I dont hit the flush but win anyway, so if he calls assume he is ahead on the flop.

I dont see any hand that you dont beat on the flop, folds to a bet from you. Maybe something like 77,99,1010.. But against those hands you would still have tons of outs (any A, K or spade..).

And to "fold equity".. The question is, you really want him to fold? And WHAT you want him to fold? In your first post you put him on AA,KK or a set. Then where you see any foldequity there on this flop? I dont. So check behind if you put him on those hands to hit your flush and bust him on the turn, because he cannot get away from his hand.

 

[Stu_Ungar]

I dont see any hand that you dont beat on the flop, folds to a bet from you. Maybe something like 77,99,1010.. But against those hands you would still have tons of outs (any A, K or spade..).

And to "fold equity".. The question is, you really want him to fold? And WHAT you want him to fold? In your first post you put him on AA,KK or a set. Then where you see any foldequity there on this flop? I dont. So check behind if you put him on those hands to hit your flush and bust him on the turn, because he cannot get away from his hand.

So in scenario 1, where he bet first, would you call?

 

[Steveg1976]

OK a more concrete example. Sorry I didnt post it yesterday but I have been a little busy.

Cash $10 NL game
Blinds are 0.5/10

Stack sizes

Player 7 $8.50
Player 8 $5.25


Players 2+3 limp
Players 4-6 fold
Pllayer 7 raises to $0.50
Player 8 is dealt [As Ks]
Player 8 raises to $1.50
Players 9 + Sb + BB + players 1- 6 all fold.
Player 7 calls $1 to make it $1.50

Pot is $3.65

Flop is [Js 8s 4d]

Player 7 raises All in $3.75
Player 8 hero?
Pot is $7.40 cost of calling is $3.75 pot odds are 1.97:1
Odds of hitting a flush by the river are 1.86:1

So call here seems correct?

So if the call is correct is the reverse true?

Flop is [Js 8s 4d]

Player 7 now checks
Player 8 (hero) raises $3.75
Pot is still $7.40 and cost of calling is $3.75 pot odds are 1.97:1
Odds of hitting a flush by the river are 1.86:1

Nothing about the pot has changed, just that the hero now makes the bet instead of calling it.

This should open up a ton of fold equity meaning a fold from the villian is likely. Should he call you are on exactly the same draw as before.. which you were going to call.

Now as for my magical hand reading abilities.. He sometimes has AA!! I want the villian to be on a hand.. any hand that I dont beat in the flop so that I either win the pot via a fold or by out drawing him.. I'm not trying to overcomplicate the situation by looking at the times I dont hit the flush but win anyway, so if he calls assume he is ahead on the flop.

I don't think you are using fold equity properly, On that board villian is never going to fold a hand that is better than yours based on the preflop action. so you have 0 fold equity. So shoving is not better than calling as you still have to win the showdown. Calling is better here if you can add some bluffing to his shoving range. For instance will he shove AQ, or KQ. Very villian dependant.

 

[m00]

I think I would. But I would not put him on AA,KK or a set only.. He can also play AK,AQ like that, trying to push you out of the pot imo.. or QQ,1010, where you would have even more outs.

So I would call and gaamble.. For 3$ its ok, I guess

 

[Stu_Ungar]

I think I would. But I would not put him on AA,KK or a set only.. He can also play AK,AQ like that, trying to push you out of the pot imo.. or QQ,1010, where you would have even more outs.

So I would call and gaamble.. For 3$ its ok, I guess

He probably ton of other hands. The reason I'm putting him on such a tight range is im trying to guage if people would be happy to call the draw alone.. even if they could see the villians cards and know that only the flush draw would justify the call.

If thats the case (and its the worst possible case) then the opponents actual range becomes unimportant to the decision faced. So the action becomes simpler.

THEN if the above was established, I wanted to look at the reverse.

If the decision has been made before any action on the flop (as soon as the last card is turned over) if you decide its correct to call an all in bet.. is it right to make the same sized raise yourself?

From reading the first part of 'Professional No-Limit Holdem' .. (it arrived yesterday). I think it is, because they talk about pot commitment and conditional commitment.

From the description given, once the decision to go all-in has been made it dosnt matter how or when it goes in, unless the next street gives a card which puts the breaks on (conditional commitment).

 

[HipHopStoner]

I hate dealing with flush draws. What do you do in the same situation with a weak flush draw???

 

[Stu_Ungar]

I hate dealing with flush draws. What do you do in the same situation with a weak flush draw???

In my mind, the easiest thing to do is discount the outs. Instead of looking at your flush draw as having 9 outs, discount it to 5 or 6 outs. Make your decision based on having less outs. That way you will need better odds to continue, this will compensate you for the times you get outdrawn by higher flushes. Also try not to get pot committed.. keep the pot size down and be more prepared to let the hand go when faced with a large raise.

 

[zachvac]

ok in your example you are actually not getting odds to call. You need to be good 33.6% and you are only good 32.2%.

So if you think he only pushes with AA/KK/sets and you think that's all he calls your shove with the proper response would be check-fold.

HOWEVER: you are almost 81% against a hand like a lower flush draw which means he is not getting odds to stack. So if you think he will shove a hand like a flush draw then you should check and let him push. If you think villain will shove hands like middle pair and will fold those to a shove, that further weighs your decision to a shove.

Basically what you need to look at in a situation like this is

1. How many hands with odds to call your shove will fold if you shove?
2. How many hands without odds to call your shove will shove if you check?

If there are a lot of #1, you should tend towards shoving, if there are a lot of #2, you should tend towards check-calling.

 

[Stu_Ungar]

ok in your example you are actually not getting odds to call. You need to be good 33.6% and you are only good 32.2%.

So if you think he only pushes with AA/KK/sets and you think that's all he calls your shove with the proper response would be check-fold.

HOWEVER: you are almost 81% against a hand like a lower flush draw which means he is not getting odds to stack. So if you think he will shove a hand like a flush draw then you should check and let him push. If you think villain will shove hands like middle pair and will fold those to a shove, that further weighs your decision to a shove.

Basically what you need to look at in a situation like this is

1. How many hands with odds to call your shove will fold if you shove?
2. How many hands without odds to call your shove will shove if you check?

If there are a lot of #1, you should tend towards shoving, if there are a lot of #2, you should tend towards check-calling.

I rounded the bet sizes to make them easier on the eyes. Can we assume that the pot odds = the drawing odds of a flush?

 

[zachvac]

I rounded the bet sizes to make them easier on the eyes. Can we assume that the pot odds = the drawing odds of a flush?

ok well in that case everything after my first 2 lines still holds. If you think he will bluff with more hands that he doesn't have odds to call with that should tend you to check-call and if he'll fold hands that he does have odds to call with and will shove those it's better to shove yourself.

 

[Stu_Ungar]

Thanks for having a look at that Zach