NLHE cash table: When given pot odds, is there

PokerPete

PokerPete

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ever a time when you DON'T or SHOULDN'T call?

Here's the hand in a nut shell:
NLHE cash ring table.
Dealt to me at BB 10cJc.

VGood TAG to my left at UTG, absolute "call anything" fish to my right in SB. TAG has me out chipped 5 to 1, I have fish out stacked 1 to 0.8.
TAG bets 3BB, 2 or 3 early callers, fish calls, 2BB to me with pot of 12BB to 15BB.

My read on TAG is that 3BB bet indicates pp less than K's or A with 7-10 range if in later position. So UTG, I'm thinking PP 8's through PP Q's.

I call 2BB. <- Question #1: Right move here or not? Is TJ sooooted worth a 1:6 / 1:7+ ratio?

*** FLOP *** [Qc 3c 9h]

Ok, so now I'm sitting on a bi-lat/flush draw.
Out:Four 8's, Four K's, Seven Other clubs (plus the 8c & Kc for the usual 9) for a total of 15 outs, turn and river to go so approx. 60% chance I'll hit the flush or the str8

Question #2: Is there ANY bet that UTG or SB Fish can make at this point that I SHOULD NOT call?

Fish bets 11BB into a Pot of 14BB to 17BB, so 11BB:28BB my thought "insta-call". Pot now at 35BB to 39BB. BTW:Read on Fish is that he's paired the Q with a kicker of around a 7....yeah...it's been that bad...previous hand made large call on TP crap kicker when the board had 4 hearts and he had none!

TAG raises 42BB, Folds around to the Fish who "Insta-calls-allin" with 32BB.

Pot now at 109BB to 113BB, Bet to me 42BB for a ratio of 2:5.

Question #3:Do I call here? My stack pre-call is at 97BB. I KNOW the TAG has at least trip 9's, probably trip Q's and if I DON'T hit on the turn TAG will put me on my chips.

I call.

Turn [Ad]

Swing and a miss, strike 2. Now my odds of hitting are at 30%. Pot at 151BB to 155BB. My stack is 55BB. If TAG "stacks me", the call to pot ratio will be 55:210 or around 1:4.

Sure enough, TGA Bets 100BB
Question #4: Do I lay this down here with a 1:3 expected win rate and a 1:4 call ratio?

Question #5: If this were instead late in a tourney, would you call then?

I called and was all in.

River [5s]

Swing and a miss, strike three. :( Pete shows rag ace high, hangs his head and walks slowly back to the dugout.

Tag shows pp Q's for three of a kind Q's and rakes in 270+BB :eek:
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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The only way I play this differently is pushing the flop after TAG has come over the top. You don't want to smooth call and have to face yet another big bet on the turn if you miss one of your million outs.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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Don't take this the wrong way, but...

You know how to calculate pot odds.

You know how to figure out your win odds.

You're getting 4:1 on a call with a hand that you know has a 2:1 chance to win.

... And you're asking if you should call?
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

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If your draw hits, this topic doesn't get made, right?

Fish bets 11BB into a Pot of 14BB to 17BB, so 11BB:28BB my thought "insta-call". Pot now at 35BB to 39BB. BTW:Read on Fish is that he's paired the Q with a kicker of around a 7....yeah...it's been that bad...previous hand made large call on TP crap kicker when the board had 4 hearts and he had none!

TAG raises 42BB, Folds around to the Fish who "Insta-calls-allin" with 32BB.

Pot now at 109BB to 113BB, Bet to me 42BB for a ratio of 2:5.

Question #3:Do I call here?

No, you shove.
 
PokerPete

PokerPete

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The only way I play this differently is pushing the flop after TAG has come over the top. You don't want to smooth call and have to face yet another big bet on the turn if you miss one of your million outs.

Thanks Chuck, excellent point... that is a weak part of my game that I'm trying to work on...knowing when to pull that trigger with a drawing hand.
I actually thought that exact thing while posting this...and it actually went through my mind for a sec at the time, and then I thought "Gee, he's gonna call anyway, I know he's hit so what purpose does it serve?"...
I guess I should have been thinking: "OK, I'm in a position where I'm gonna call everything he puts out...and in a position to hit 3 out 5 times and take this down so lets get them chips (or "chippies" as PQ calls em :D ) in there."

So looking at it that way, I guess I would want to do the same thing in a SnG or tourney too.
 
PokerPete

PokerPete

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If your draw hits, this topic doesn't get made, right?.

And you're asking if you should call?

Yep...sorry...I've learned so much from this forum, and I guess I expected a better out come....felt right at the time...just wanted to make SURE it was right...when I did the outs on the fly (actually on the fly I forgot the two overlaps, so I thought it was ~68%) and again while posting it looked right, and I couldn't find an error, but not having played that long...picked up the game two years ago, got an undertanding of pot odds 3 months ago...I 2nd guessed my judgement and needed a confirmation on my calculations.

No, you shove.
Yep...know that now :D ...wish I would have known that then... not that it would change the outcome, but at least I can do it next time with confidence.

Thanks again to all.
 
A

alan1983

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You dont fold that flop no matter what he bets on it.

You already know youre 60% to win, he cant bet you out. No need to calculate his bets for flop.

The most youll call is his bet, so youre always getting less than 1-1 pot odds and youre more than that 2 win. So even if he overbets existing pot by whatever amount, you call or raise.
 
titans4ever

titans4ever

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Is it a money thing? Guessing since you did not list stakes but just BB involved. If you are ever considering folding when you have odds then it is not the poker that is the problem. If you start to question plays like this then you need to take a break or look at your comfort level of the money involved.

You maybe one of the people whose bankroll can afford to play at a certain level but just don't fell comfortable at it. I will play with hundreds of dollars in front of me live but online I get squeemish with more than $25-$50 at the table. Not sure why but I have learned to live with it.
 
PokerPete

PokerPete

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Is it a money thing? Guessing since you did not list stakes but just BB involved. If you are ever considering folding when you have odds then it is not the poker that is the problem. If you start to question plays like this then you need to take a break or look at your comfort level of the money involved..
Nah...wasn't really a money thing...it was more of a "from what I understand, it makes sense to risk your current stack on a draw- am I correct?" kinda thing... I was donking around on PStars low/micro limit at the time....converted to BB frame of ref so that it would be easy for you guys to analyze....it was just the third or forth time (and not all at micro limits) I've been in this situation since I learned pot odds...and I'm "Oh-Fer" on it...just wanted to make sure I wasn't thinking something totally off the wall and that it was just a "oh well, keep doing as your doing and in the long run it'll payoff" kinda thing.

You maybe one of the people whose bankroll can afford to play at a certain level but just don't fell comfortable at it. I will play with hundreds of dollars in front of me live but online I get squeemish with more than $25-$50 at the table. Not sure why but I have learned to live with it.
thanks for sharing that...lol...I have that same feeling too :D I can drop a couple of hundred at the grocery store and not blink...throw $50 in the gas tank? No prob.....play in Atlantic City (only blackjack so far...I feel I'm ready to try NLHE on the next trip) with $300 to $1000...double up, or lose it all, or take home what I brought....a mere "walk in the park"

but take $30 to an online table (about the same amount I would easly spend in one evening at a bar with friends) and lose it? lol...it un-nerves me a little :eek: ...go figure

but I do have to admit...thanks to PStars I'm getting used to it :D
 
joosebuck

joosebuck

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look at that equity!!!

you have a hand that is very likely to win even against top set. shove that flop since you know the fish will be calling too.
 
G

ginNjuice

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I'd come over the top of the fish befor the TAG even has a chance to raise the flop. even against top set you're a favorite to win the hand so get your money and know that you're going to win most of the time if you get called. NL games will make you have large swings in your bankroll but if you know you have the odds or even the best hand in this case~even though it's not a made hand~don't be afraid to put your money in.
 
joosebuck

joosebuck

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you want them all in the pot on the flop for as much money as you can get in there.
 
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