Implied odds

[aliengenius]

If this helps anyone's math:

Probability of two unpaired cards hitting two pair: 47:1
Probability of two unpaired cards hitting trips: 70:1
Probability of 62o flopping a straight: 332:1

 

[F Paulsson]

I get the point of the thread but I think if you want to discuss implied odds in this context then you need to state the size of your stack and the size of your opponents stack. This way you can gauge your effective implied odds.

*points to the poll at the top of the thread*

 

[Schatzdog]

Thanks for that. How big is opponents stack?

 

[F Paulsson]

"You" in this sense can (should) only mean the effective stacks, as otherwise you're not "deepstacked" but have a "big stack."

 

[Schatzdog]

Sweet. Clear.

 

[joeeagles]

I'm going to put my 2 cents into this. I believe that there is a problem with the way you're calculating your odds in this hand. The 4.9 to 1 is the correct figure of 64o against AA or KK. However, it appears to me that if we play this hand we should adjust our odds as if we are playing against both AA and KK.

As pointed out by aliengenius, in that seminar the answer to the question " what hands would you play against AA?", was "any hand". That, as it seems you all understood, is because of the power of knowledge.

The knowledge that we have here is that our opponent is holding AA or KK, so I'm wondering if because of that you need to adjust the way you're calculating odds. To make an example, if the flop is K-6-4 or A-6-4, are you willing to risk 100 or more BB by calling all the way to the river? It appears to me that you will have to defend against both AA and KK, almost as if you're playing this hand against 2 opponents, one holding AA the other holding KK. So, if I'm right, you need to adjust odds accordingly since they no longer will be 4.9 to 1. Perhaps I'm wrong but that's what it seems to me.

 

[F Paulsson]

Right. We're really, really hoping for an (at most) queen-high flop if we are to play this hand, because half the time we're going to make really expensive mistakes when an ace or a king flops.

 

[skoldpadda]

If this helps anyone's math:

Probability of two unpaired cards hitting two pair: 47:1
Probability of two unpaired cards hitting trips: 70:1
Probability of 62o flopping a straight: 332:1

Then the probability of at least 1 of those things happening (I think) should be: 1 - (the probability of all these things not happening)

1 - [47/48 x (70/71) x (332/333)] = 3.75% (approximate, exact figure below)

To go back to ChuckTs question then,

0.037523438931889636114988227664284 x "Mr AA DeepStack" must be equal to the 3 bets we call x (0.96247656106811036388501177233572)

(i.e. the amount we win when we hit the flop = the amount we lose over an infinite number of hands)

Or, Mr AA DeepStack needs to have about 77 BB in his stack if our EV is to be positive when we just plan to see the flop (again, assuming he will call your all-in). This is nice because then we don't have to make other assumptions about how much he'll bet on the flop and turn.