I'm a losing player, help me become a winning one

[Stu_Ungar]

No. We need to be stacking JJ and AK almost always. TT usually. You're only looking at our EV when called but we get plenty of folds as well and if we're folding TT/JJ/AK our stacking range is just much too narrow and we become very exploitable. If you're only stack QQ+ people should be 3betting your opens like 100%.

NO

stick with the 5% range.

Asssume 100bb stacks.

when you 4bet JJ you fold out some of his range (the part you were beating anyway) so you could 4bet 72o in place of JJ and be in exactly the same situation, if he dosent fold you are beat... but who 4bet folds JJ?

Now lest assume we call and play postflop.

Any A K or Q improves his AK,AQ or KQ hands whilst at the same time killing action from 88,99 and TT

So idealy you want a board without an AK or Q on it.

here you are smack in the middle of his PP range, you are neither ahead nor behind. If you start firing you might get AK or AQ to peal once but after that they shut down (assuming they dont hit their 6 outer!)

If the turn is still a blank you then have a pot control issue.. if you bet again and get called you are against a range you are behind (asuming he dosent peal the turn with AK AQ and KQ after calling the flop bet)

If you check back the turn you let him see both the turn and the river for one bet so he gets to draw on his 6 outer.

Its just not a profitable situation, you arent really ahead, you arent really behind.

So 4betting sucks and calling to play postflop isnt really +ev, nor is it really -ev


The only way to play JJ profitably against a 5% range is with either deeper stacks whenre you can rep more and have more fold equity OR with shallower stacks where if he 3bets he is committed so your 4bet dosent fold out any of the hands in his 5% range.

 

[WVHillbilly]

That's just wrong Stu. 4betting JJ in most cases will certainly be profitable. It just won't be profitable when we're called/shoved on. We'll make plenty when he 3bet/folds hands like AQ or makes a mistake and calls/shoves with 99/TT.

Also there is no pot control after the flop if he flats preflop. We're committed and basically never folding. Pot control in 4bet pots does not exist.

 

[LuckyChippy]

you dont have a leak, you have the overbearing ego of a child who succeeded.
You started playing probably with starry eyes and anxious to learn. you were hesitant and took every hand you got with a grain of salt. look at your 2NL stats 12\10!!
and then you wen up to 22\20... wtf??
you wanna tell me you learned how to play all those hands profiably?
you are 3betting 8%... why?
what are you trying to prove?
you started stealing wider, you folded postflop less and now you come here to ask for advice.
you played winning poker, 19.28 bb\100 is pretty damn good. so you went ahead and decided to change that because you managed to do so for 2 whole weeks?

get a grip. you were doing well, you were doing really well and then you "opened your game up"

pfft

Lmao, ok calm down man. Fwiw the 2nl is mainly FR but yeah I have opened my game up. Maybe too much I agree, my main leak is turn and river play, I'm too aggressive.

I have come here to ask for advice because that;s what the forum is about, to discuss poker and to gain insight form other players. So chill out yeah? Sounds like you have some serious issues.

I actually think that this thread has caused some good discussion so at least that's something.

Oh also I think you completely misunderstand poker in that if you are winning you must be doing it right, that's far from the case. 3-betting 8% I'm obviously a maniac trying to prove I'm better than everyone (?). Stealing more, you serious? Yes I steal too much from the SB, that's something I've gained form this thread but at 6-max opening 40-50% of your hands OTB is pretty standard.

Also don't make assumptions about me or how I started this game, I've always been too aggressive at this game, It just happens that when you play 12/10 at FR you make less mistakes, but at 10nl 6-max and higher playing like that wont be super profitable or prepare you for bigger games, but maybe I should just take the small profit instead of learning to open up my game. You're right though that I haven't learned to do it yet, that's why this thread exists.

All I'm asking for is help, to discuss a couple areas of my game. I don't need your condescending bullshit attitude or your unhelpful comments. Say something useful or GTFO.

Thank you.

 

[LuckyChippy]

That's just wrong Stu. 4betting JJ in most cases will certainly be profitable. It just won't be profitable when we're called/shoved on. We'll make plenty when he 3bet/folds hands like AQ or makes a mistake and calls/shoves with 99/TT.

Also there is no pot control after the flop if he flats preflop. We're committed and basically never folding. Pot control in 4bet pots does not exist.

That's basically it, we make enough money folding out AQ etc to make a profit. Also against a good reg who will 3-bet bluff some air type hands our 4-bet range and specifically JJ starts to crush.

 

[Stu_Ungar]

So hang on? you agree that 4betting JJ is basically a bluff? if he dosent fold JJ is usually behind? At best you fold out 40% of his range so a 4bet bluff isnt profitable.

The post flop pot was if WE called not him so the pot isnt 4bet. We arent committed because he isnt committed with the hands we beat. You MIGHT get him to stack with TT but you wil almost always get him to stack with QQ-AA so, on average we lose against the PP range he is willing to stack with.

Is he stacking with Ace high? I dont think so

This is a hand that really dosent play well with 100BB stacks.

 

[Stu_Ungar]

That's basically it, we make enough money folding out AQ etc to make a profit. Also against a good reg who will 3-bet bluff some air type hands our 4-bet range and specifically JJ starts to crush.

you dont make enough money to make it profitable by folding out hands like AQ. You need to fold out 65% of his range for a 4bet to be profitable, you fold out 40% of his range.

 

[LuckyChippy]

So hang on? you agree that 4betting JJ is basically a bluff? if he dosent fold JJ is usually behind? At best you fold out 40% of his range so a 4bet bluff isnt profitable.

The post flop pot was if WE called not him so the pot isnt 4bet. We arent committed because he isnt committed with the hands we beat. You MIGHT get him to stack with TT but you wil almost always get him to stack with QQ-AA so, on average we lose against the PP range he is willing to stack with.

Is he stacking with Ace high? I dont think so

This is a hand that really dosent play well with 100BB stacks.

If villain 3-bets 3% we fold, if villain 3-bets 5% we MAY be able to 4-bet I'm not sure, if villain 3-bets 5%+ we can 4 bet. IMO.

 

[Stu_Ungar]

If villain 3-bets 3% we fold, if villain 3-bets 5% we MAY be able to 4-bet I'm not sure, if villain 3-bets 5%+ we can 4 bet. IMO.

The last 10 posts or so have been about a 5% range.... please dont try and change the goal posts.

We are talking about a 5% range, whuch S93 tells me is the average range for 6max 10Nl and 25NL

 

[LuckyChippy]

Say villain 3-bets this: QQ+,AQs+,AQo+ = 3.8%.

We can reasonably fold out AQ and get shoved by the rest. So we fold out
16 combos and get shoved on by 34. We fold out 32% so don't do it.

Say villain 3-bets: JJ+,AJs+,KJs+,AJo+,KQo = 6.9%

Again we get shoved on by 34 combos but now we fold out 54 combos. We fold out around 61%.

Also when I say 34 combos, AK make 16 of them or 47%.

Given all of the above I think we make money against 6%+ 3-bet range or this: JJ+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+,KQo, and JJ will make us money.

 

[LuckyChippy]

The last 10 posts or so have been about a 5% range.... please dont try and change the goal posts.

We are talking about a 5% range, whuch S93 tells me is the average range for 6max 10Nl and 25NL

Ok ok I get that, but you need to get past that, not everybody will have a 5% 3-bet range and adjusting is poker. Even against a 5% range there is still money to be made 4-betting JJ.

 

[Stu_Ungar]

Just to make it clear why looking at a range of over 5% is changing the goal posts.

5% seems to be the cut off point between betting purely for value i.e. top 5% of hands and betting to exploit tendencies.

So after 5% you start seeing polarised ranges and 3betting being significantly higher than a players overall average around the BTN and blinds.. so a 6-8% 3bet usually translates into 3betting of 8-12% from BTN and Blinds but 2-3% from other positions.

The 8-12% does not nessicarily represent the top 8-12% of hands but rather a range that is polarised (contains som premium hands and some hands that are too weak to call but to strong to fold) like small PP.

A 5% range and under is usually a range of 5% and under form every position.

 

[Stu_Ungar]

Ok ok I get that, but you need to get past that, not everybody will have a 5% 3-bet range and adjusting is poker. Even against a 5% range there is still money to be made 4-betting JJ.

Well if the average player has a 3bet % of 5% then it helps if you know how to play against a 5% range.

 

[LuckyChippy]

I've tried to find a 5% range and 4.8% is the closest I could reasonably get. JJ+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+.

We fold out 36 and get shoved by 34. We fold out 51% of his range but that isn't too good. I don't know how we could factor in the fact we're flipping around 47% of the times we call though.

Edit: also we never know when a player will shove a hand like AQ or JJ or even 3-bet then shove TT. Just checking now adding TT bumps it to 5.3%.

 

[WVHillbilly]

So hang on? you agree that 4betting JJ is basically a bluff? if he dosent fold JJ is usually behind? At best you fold out 40% of his range so a 4bet bluff isnt profitable.

The post flop pot was if WE called not him so the pot isnt 4bet. We arent committed because he isnt committed with the hands we beat. You MIGHT get him to stack with TT but you wil almost always get him to stack with QQ-AA so, on average we lose against the PP range he is willing to stack with.

Is he stacking with Ace high? I dont think so

This is a hand that really dosent play well with 100BB stacks.

I said earlier that we shouldn't be flatting 3bets OOP, so I don't know why you would throw that in. We 4bet or fold and I believe 4betting JJ is profitable.

Again if you're never flatting 3bets OOP and only 4betting QQ+, 3betting your EP opens 100% is profitable, at least until you adjust.

 

[Stu_Ungar]

I said earlier that we shouldn't be flatting 3bets OOP, so I don't know why you would throw that in. We 4bet or fold and I believe 4betting JJ is profitable.

Again if you're never flatting 3bets OOP and only 4betting QQ+, 3betting your EP opens 100% is profitable, at least until you adjust.

I put it in as an alternative to 4betting

4 betting isnt profitable so I thought Id show why calling is bad too.

when 4 betting, to be profitable you need to fold out 65% of his range; you dont

You fold out about 40% so it dosent work as a 4bet bluff.

So you dont fold out enough to show a profit and you leave yourself against a range that crushes you.




The range you are left with is JJ+ and Ak which has 64% equity against you.

 

[LuckyChippy]

I said earlier that we shouldn't be flatting 3bets OOP, so I don't know why you would throw that in. We 4bet or fold and I believe 4betting JJ is profitable.

Again if you're never flatting 3bets OOP and only 4betting QQ+, 3betting your EP opens 100% is profitable, at least until you adjust.

Against micro players and fish this will be profitable, but against better players as we move up (hopefully) this is way too exploitable and is throwing money away. Adding JJ is a quick way of opening up with a hand most of us believe is profitable anyway.

 

[LuckyChippy]

If you consider switching over to MTT/SNG play, give me a pm & I'll try to help you out a bit.

Thanks PO but I doubt I'll take you up on the offer, tournaments tilt me no end, plus I'm up in tournaments so I should quit now right?

 

[Stu_Ungar]

Against micro players and fish this will be profitable, but against better players as we move up (hopefully) this is way too exploitable and is throwing money away. Adding JJ is a quick way of opening up with a hand most of us believe is profitable anyway.

Could you please show why its profitable against a 5% range.

I have shown that it isnt, you still believe it is.

Id like to see some sums and stuff that prove what you are saying.

 

[Stu_Ungar]

Here is a picture for you all to discuss.

 

[Skaplun]

Lmao, ok calm down man. Fwiw the 2nl is mainly FR but yeah I have opened my game up. Maybe too much I agree, my main leak is turn and river play, I'm too aggressive.

I have come here to ask for advice because that;s what the forum is about, to discuss poker and to gain insight form other players. So chill out yeah? Sounds like you have some serious issues.

I actually think that this thread has caused some good discussion so at least that's something.

Oh also I think you completely misunderstand poker in that if you are winning you must be doing it right, that's far from the case. 3-betting 8% I'm obviously a maniac trying to prove I'm better than everyone (?). Stealing more, you serious? Yes I steal too much from the SB, that's something I've gained form this thread but at 6-max opening 40-50% of your hands OTB is pretty standard.

Also don't make assumptions about me or how I started this game, I've always been too aggressive at this game, It just happens that when you play 12/10 at FR you make less mistakes, but at 10nl 6-max and higher playing like that wont be super profitable or prepare you for bigger games, but maybe I should just take the small profit instead of learning to open up my game. You're right though that I haven't learned to do it yet, that's why this thread exists.

All I'm asking for is help, to discuss a couple areas of my game. I don't need your condescending bullshit attitude or your unhelpful comments. Say something useful or GTFO.

Thank you.

...
I'm in awe by your response, you took nothing from what I told you.
This wasn't meant to be a bash on your personality, I am not trying to hurt you.

I am giving you a pretty straight forward analysis of your play with the psychological reasons put in for your benefit.

Stop being a kid and understand what I told you.

I wont waste more of my time trying to help you.
in short:

you open too wide, your pfr is fine. you 3-bet too much situationally which means you also squeeze too much. You Cbet around 10-13% more than you should. you try to float though your opponents aren't at the stage where they generally fold to floats. you open way too much from the button, opening 40% is jus ATC and becomes pure steals without the ability to maneuver the pot at all. 30-33% is wide enough for the button.
Stop calling down your opponents, fold, you never fold. your river call efficiency is horrible. You have no grasp nearly for hand ranges (or this is just some freaky variance.)

learn to open up your game gradually as you improve in your understandingof the game, and not just +ev\-ev situations with JJ which really should not bother you in the least and at 10NL are clear folds for anyone who isn't fooling himself.

 

[Stu_Ungar]

It seems that the way to play JJ profitably against the 5% range is not to 4bet but infact to call OOP and check shove any non AK flop

It basically assumes that the villian cbets 100% or close to 100% of his 3bet range when checked to so we are getting c-bet by AQ AK and KQs

Donking for 3/4 pot and then folding to any continued action is also profitable but not as profitable as the first option.

Here is the proof.

Now does anyone actually play JJ like this?



I would have assumed that playing OOP in a 3bet pot would be less profitable than 4betting but form the other diagram, 4betting is -ev so that rules it out as an option.

calling / min raising the flop etc are way too exploitable because you are in a horrible situation when shove on.. you have way too much in the pot to fold but are likely beat.

So just check shove any non-A or K board and hope for the best!

 

[Jagsti]

Back on track, but your WTSD % seems a little high to me. I think optimal is 25-27% range.

 

[Stu_Ungar]

EDIT

I have taken the EV in the second diagram at the wrong point.

I took it from the first point on the flop, which dosent factor in calling the 3bet.

I should have taken the EV at the point where the 3bet is called OOP (which is also the point where the postflop plan is made)

When I take it at that point, the EV of the entire play becomes +0.01

So I am changing my mind back to the original assertion that there is no way to play JJ profitably OOP against a 5% 3bet range.

And incidentally, if I keep the same model and switch JJ to QQ, QQ becomes hugely profitable so I'm pretty sure the model is correct.

 

[LuckyChippy]

...
I'm in awe by your response, you took nothing from what I told you.
This wasn't meant to be a bash on your personality, I am not trying to hurt you.

I am giving you a pretty straight forward analysis of your play with the psychological reasons put in for your benefit.

Stop being a kid and understand what I told you.

I wont waste more of my time trying to help you.
in short:

you open too wide, your pfr is fine. you 3-bet too much situationally which means you also squeeze too much. You Cbet around 10-13% more than you should. you try to float though your opponents aren't at the stage where they generally fold to floats. you open way too much from the button, opening 40% is jus ATC and becomes pure steals without the ability to maneuver the pot at all. 30-33% is wide enough for the button.
Stop calling down your opponents, fold, you never fold. your river call efficiency is horrible. You have no grasp nearly for hand ranges (or this is just some freaky variance.)

learn to open up your game gradually as you improve in your understandingof the game, and not just +ev\-ev situations with JJ which really should not bother you in the least and at 10NL are clear folds for anyone who isn't fooling himself.

Thank you. This is what I'm hoping for, I apologise if I offended you but I felt offended too. Let's just move past it. Thank you for taking the time to give me a few ideas to look at. I've been thinking and my game IS too open for my skill level and also for the skill level of my opponents. I need to cut back and keep it simple. I've been using pokerstove to come up with some solid hand ranges I'm going to try to stick to. I need to go back to what works and move from there.

Thanks for the points about the button, I'll try to cut it down to hands I'll actually want to play IP against the blinds rather than any 2 suited. This is one of my problems, I know I should steal wide, but I don't often think why and against what opponents. Something to work on.

I know I never fold, I know this and I still can't stop it. I truly believe that if I fix this one leak then I'd become a winning player. Something I really really need to work on, I lose so much money from it.

As for hand ranges I do find it difficult right now but I'm working on it and sometimes I do feel that I can build a decent hand range on an opponent, but I find it difficult to do every time and in every situation. I need to slow down and think more thoroughly to give myself the best chance until it becomes more natural to me.

Again, I apologise and thank you for your input.

 

[LuckyChippy]

Back on track, but your WTSD % seems a little high to me. I think optimal is 25-27% range.

Thanks Jagsti, yeah skaplun made a similar point, I give no where near enough credit and I need to learn to fold. I'm working on it.

I've got grind on the mind atm, gonna play a session whilst thinking about a few things and see how it goes. Will be back with a report, maybe some hands I struggled with.

Thanks again guys.